deltadog03 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Shawn the RAP is taking that area that goes below 0c at 850 for me, and def. you as it starts to wind up the 850mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 No, ground temps won't be warm. One day of 50 won't warm ground temps that much. We'll have colder ground temps for this one than for a typical storm in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Our local media outlets are showing rain from about 5p-10p on their models! That would greatly reduce snow total, no? Don't believe them man. AS OF 0945 AM...MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP AS WELL AS THE CONSHORT GUIDANCE. BLENDING IN THE CONSHORT POPS BRINGS CATEGORICAL POPS INTO NE GA...FAR WESTERN UPSTATE AND THE SW NC MOUNTAINS ABOUT 19-20Z...GREENVILLE/ASHEVILLE 22-23Z AND CLT AREA 23-00Z. STILL LOOKS LIKE PRECIP OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN BEFORE DYNAMICS QUICKLY COOL THE COLUMN TO AN ALL SNOW SOUNDING. THE ATLANTA 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED WARM NOSE BELOW 700 MB WHICH SUBSTANTIATES THE IDEA THAT THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT BEWTEEN RAIN AND SNOW SETTING UP SOMEWHERE FROM NORTH GA...EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SC UPSTATE. THEREFORE...SNOW AMOUNTS IN COUNTIES LIKE ELBERT...ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. OTHERWISE IT IS ALSO NOTEWORTHY THAT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLASSIC CROSS HAIR SIGNATURES AT PLACES LIKE GSP AND CLT WHICH INDICATE VERY EFFICIENT SNOWFALL RATES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE COMPONENTS TO LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL TOTALS. LOOKS LIKE A WINDOW OF ABOUT 6 HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...ESPECIALLY WHERE BANDING OCCURS. HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNICANT CHANCES TO CURRENT STORM TOTAL SNOW....EXCEPT JUST FOR SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 But snow is MUCH lighter, even wet snow, than ice is. It's just that simple. Ever seen ice wrapped around a power line that was 4 inches in diameter? A heavy wet snow can bring down lines. It is just much rarer than ice doing so. I know because I have seen it it do so. Weather is rarely simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 So, are you saying rain from 7pm to 10pm? That would kill our totals!!! That is what the HRRR is suggesting... although There is some question as to how quickly the column will cool... if the rates are intense early on, it could quickly cool the profile to isothermal and the transition to heavy wet snow would occur earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 But snow is MUCH lighter, even wet snow, than ice is. It's just that simple. The main issue will be trees like pines and magnolias. Evergreens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reedski Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 So there is a chance for CAE now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 You guys might also be interested in these new maps not on my website yet (and as far as I know not available anywhere else). Here are frontogenesis plots centered over the southeast for this event from the HRRR for 925/850/700 and Reflectivity as well. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_fgen_all_gsp.php Thanks for posting those phil! Looks like Wake county takes a beating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 HRRR via Ryan Maue on twitter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 45 and blazing sunshine in downtown Raleigh. This is exactly what I was hoping wouldn't happen the other day...max sunshine, max temp rises, and then the clouds roll in and blanket the heat in. Hopefully, the layer is shallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 HRRR via Ryan Maue on twitter: That's the deepest blue on the p-type radar I've ever seen. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Thanks for all the post about wet snow vs dry snow. I would love one day for someone to do some research about this with some actually numbers and history. This does seem to be a heavy wet snow for a number of locations throughout the south My pleasure man. I'm no expert but I've seen lots of both in my life and lots of ice storms as well. I love talking about the weather but then don't we all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Temps in Irmo(NW CAE) are on their way to busting. High so far today only 39 and was projected around 46. Clouds are in. Hopefully this is good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brandon Garrett Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 South Carolina under a state of emergency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 That's the deepest blue on the p-type radar I've ever seen. LOL Sweet southern moisture baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 A very few flakes mixing in here now. Still almost all sleet, though. The flakes that are making it through are quite large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 As far as soil temps go, in Durham we see 40 degrees right now. At start of precip yesterday it was about 37. Not going to be much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Just an FYI, we have an OB thread going. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45854-february-25th-26th-winter-storm-obs/page-5#entry3449400 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Just an FYI, we have an OB thread going. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45854-february-25th-26th-winter-storm-obs/page-5#entry3449400 Whoops, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Ever seen ice wrapped around a power line that was 4 inches in diameter? A heavy wet snow can bring down lines. It is just much rarer than ice doing so. I know because I have seen it it do so. Weather is rarely simple. So have I. I never said I didn't. I'm just comparing ice with snow, which is what was asked about. Ice is more dangerous for trees and power lines than snow. It is just that simple. I wish you people would read a little closer and with a little more comprehension. That was my whole point in answering the question. He asked why would they be talking about power outages with snow as opposed to ice. I specifically said that there WILL be power outages with snow also, which is in agreement with what you said, but not to the extent that there would be if it was ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Whoops, sorry. IS it accumulating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 NWS Wakefield has expanded Winter Storm Warnings down to the Albemarle Sound. They think the jackpot will be Bertie/Hertford northeast towards Gates and through Southside Hampton Roads, 8''+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WCWEATHER Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Many significant winter storms bring dry slotting. The damage is already going to be done by the time it happens. I expect a quick shutoff for much of NC in the morning hours Thursday...quickly from the south-west...esp. Asheville then of course eventually north-east from there. Moderate to heavy accumulations will have already fallen. It may surprise some to see how short duration this event will be and still come out in a winter wonderland by sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 IS it accumulating? Not really. Pretty light rate and it's only been going for 10-15 minutes. Also, 2m temp is still 36-37F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Dynamics man. Not out of the ordinary for an upper low to produce rapid enough rates to overwhelm the column. It's interesting this particular 500mb low is causing this though, considering it is opening up over the tn valley. Usually these kinda totals only happen under closed lows. Thanks. It looks like the 18z RAP is going to continue the idea. If for some reason the RAP maps from the model center are correct with their simulated radar/ptype/accumulation maps down to I-20/Slight South into KCAE, I will gladly give up next season of Winter weather for the amounts it could possibly be when nothing else has given us much hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Shawn the RAP is taking that area that goes below 0c at 850 for me, and def. you as it starts to wind up the 850mb low. Sleet is coming into the Midlands currently. Uhm? I don't know how well we can trust this model... it's solution seems quite ridiculous right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Our local media outlets are showing rain from about 5p-10p on their models! That would greatly reduce snow total, no? I'm worried about you. You have resorted to the local media outlets for your weather? I think I'm going to cry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 Let the RAP be onto something for once! That's a massive amt of snow for such a short duration. Dynamics are going to be insane with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The 21z SREFs might be a tick wetter in some areas, though largely the same, I think. In any case, WOOF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 18z RAP while still agressive, is trying to back off down this way now with amounts per accumulation maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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