Disc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Just a reminder for everyone... I have an hourly updating HRRR domain centered over NC/SC for this event http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#flt Also have hourly soundings for select locations (and more can be added as requested). This are also updating hourly. KGSP KAVL KGSO KCLT KRDU Happy event tracking everyone. Rooting for everyone in the southeast I hope you keep this domain after the storm too. This was incredibly useful for the last snow event. Once again, thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Regardless of what I said above (because I was talking strictly snow amounts), this is a big dog big time winter storm. Agree with Burger...this is one we haven't seen in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Thanks Pack. So the euro is finally seeing the swath that extends from NEGA.. Snow map that includes everything frozen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I don't think I can ever remember so much weight being put into the Euro 8 hours from an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Euro...this just snow, or what it thinks is snow, doesn't include sleet. Looks like that map cuts CLT in half with the rain/snow line. The NW trends are starting to be bad. Almost want to stop the qpf trend so the NW trend will stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 12z Euro continues to get a little Wintry precip into the Central Midlands of SC. Nothing nutty like the RAP by any means though. Just a treat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Hard to tell with out soundings or less then hourly output. Wake county is never above 0 on any of the 6 hour time steps Yeah, that's what I see too. EuroWx shows Youngsville 99% snow, the onset it spits out a little rain. For Raleigh it has 1.1 of 1.24 as snow, a little is lost at onset. GSO is showing 8". All ratios are showing 10:1 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 Snow map that includes everything frozen... Looks very much like the SREF arw panels wrt the widening band of snow, just a few inches less overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The 9" line is literally right on top of my house. The gradient on the south side is sick. Unless all of these models are out to lunch, this storm is going to end up over or inside of Cape Hatteras. It's not done trending yet. If that happens, the slp over or inside Cape Hatteras, I suspect folks in SuperJames vicinity jackpot. But the downeasters suffer through mostly rain. I tend to think it will be east of Hatteras by about 50 miles. Time will tell of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Euro is old news and late to the party at this point. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looks like that map cuts CLT in half with the rain/snow line. The NW trends are starting to be bad. Almost want to stop the qpf trend so the NW trend will stop. No, initial .1" is rain, and then all frozen, 7" of snow some sleet after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Thanks, Phil! Do you have any predictions with regards to this storm? I'm not surprised by the poleward trend the last few model runs. We see this almost all the time with a southern stream vort max. Its poorly handled in the southwestern US and when it ejects, the models are too quick to weaken the feature. Another thing that is a positive sign, little to no convection in the Gulf of Mexico! This means the best moisture flux is going to go directly into where the best mechanical forcing for ascent is associated with frozen precipitation. I'd say these juiced up amounts the last few model cycles are the real deal, but it could also mean more WAA so perhaps cutting down amounts on the southern side of where the winter storm warnings are located. This is just a gorgeous satellite image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Euro is old news and late to the party at this point. TW That was also euro's last call before the storm. Not gonna care what it reports come 1:00am Thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looks like that map cuts CLT in half with the rain/snow line. The NW trends are starting to be bad. Almost want to stop the qpf trend so the NW trend will stop. relax. we're fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 New 17z RAP once again is going to be snow into the Central Midlands. P-type maps agree with this basically extending almost to Aiken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 FROM RAH:THIS UPWARD TREND IN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WOULDDELAY THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THIS EVENINGTO SNOW AND POTENTIALLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT...PRIMARILYACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER IN THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTALPLAIN. -BLAES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I don't think I can ever remember so much weight being put into the Euro 8 hours from an event. Yeah I wouldn't be giving it that much weight. This is a nowcast event all the way now! There will be some busts and some surprises. Dynamic systems like this always provide some of both Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Were staying in our house in the southern part of the county tonight. With the hope of seeing more accumulation. Haha But i really like what the HRRR is showing. Looks like some possible thudersnow for you guys east of me. An just my thoughts but i really dont look at OP models in this range unless im comparing tracks, temp, ect and thats just out of curosity to see how well they've done. When we get closer within the hour or two before precipitation i really start watching short range models (RAP,HRRR) Just my thoughts wish all you guys the best luck. Oh and i really dont like analogs we need serveral hundred years of data imo. This storm is a testament to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I don't think I can ever remember so much weight being put into the Euro 8 hours from an event.Burg I think what people are saying is there just notating that the Nam may not be on crack. It's good for it to see the increased qpf numbers as it really has trended nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Funny how much abuse the 84 NAM takes, yet, it's probably outperformed every other model with this storm. The GFS 'Para' was a disaster, with virtually no precip in NC just 3 days ago or so, if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Burg I think what people are saying is there just notating that the Nam may not be on crack. It's good for it to see the increased qpf numbers as it really has trended nicely. Exactly, IMO. The Euro was an extreme dry outlier before, but now it's folded towards the NAM. All Hail King NAM. The NAM has kicked butt and taken names over the last few days. BTW, thanks Phil! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I have a question for anyone to answer. I just noticed that wxsouth said that there could be power outages with this event due to the heavy wet snow. I was in High Point, NC during the Feb 25-26th 2004 event where we got 16 inches of snow at night and we didn't lose any power. My question is it possibly what he is saying? And How does heavy wet snow have the same destructive power as a ice storm? Thank you for your time. It doesn't, BUT heavy wet snow does bear greatly on tree limbs. There is only so much snow that can accumulate on power lines but ice would just keep on and on. Tree limbs are a different story. Much more snow can accumulate on tree limbs than on power lines depending on how large they are. And pine trees especially are very easily snapped under more weight because pines are a soft wood. The South is full of pine trees. You are right about ice being much more conducive to there being power outages, but I've never heard of having a big snowstorm here in the Upstate of SC where there were NO power outages. There will be some if we get major snow but they will be so much less than in ice storms that, unless YOUR power goes off, you may not even realize there were any. But listen to your local news stations if you get heavy snow and I would bet you that you will hear of power outages. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Our local media outlets are showing rain from about 5p-10p on their models! That would greatly reduce snow total, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Burg I think what people are saying is there just notating that the Nam may not be on crack. It's good for it to see the increased qpf numbers as it really has trended nicely. Ah OK just saw all the NW talk with some negativity and assumed some were taking it as gospel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwupstatewx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Our local media outlets are showing rain from about 5p-10p on their models! That would greatly reduce snow total, no? Chris Justus @ WYFF posted a video about 45 minutes ago stating that he wouldn't be surprised if I-85N in SC would start as snow and stay snow. It's a wait and see kind of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The initial finger of precip was modeled to be 30 miles or so North of Atlanta, but it ended up centering right on the Atlanta area...interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I doubt it. Also, I assume the start time will be closer to 5 in the GA section of our viewing area (Im in the same viewing area as you). I doubt you have five hours of rain. But if so, then yes, it would cut into totals. RIght now, it is aorund 1+ at the 850 and around 1 at 925. Seems that could be over came quickly. Our local media outlets are showing rain from about 5p-10p on their models! That would greatly reduce snow total, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Our local media outlets are showing rain from about 5p-10p on their models! That would greatly reduce snow total, no? is that Foxcarolina? their website shows a rain/snow mix (for the entire duration) just south of the magical I-85 boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Just a reminder for everyone... I have an hourly updating HRRR domain centered over NC/SC for this event http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#flt Also have hourly soundings for select locations (and more can be added as requested). This are also updating hourly. KGSP KAVL KGSO KCLT KRDU Happy event tracking everyone. Rooting for everyone in the southeast Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DPardue Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 It doesn't, BUT heavy wet snow does bear greatly on tree limbs. There is only so much snow that can accumulate on power lines but ice would just keep on and on. Tree limbs are a different story. Much more snow can accumulate on tree limbs than on power lines depending on how large they are. And pine trees especially are very easily snapped under more weight because pines are a soft wood. The South is full of pine trees. You are right about ice being much more conducive to there being power outages, but I've never heard of having a big snowstorm here in the Upstate of SC where there were NO power outages. There will be some if we get major snow but they will be so much less than in ice storms that, unless YOUR power goes off, you may not even realize there were any. But listen to your local news stations if you get heavy snow and I would bet you that you will hear of power outages. Tony Similarly, I was in Birmingham in '93 when we were hit with 17" of all snow. Power outages were very widespread during that event. I wonder if there are any general indicators (accumluation, for example) to look for when trying to determine if power outages can be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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