packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Hammertime on the Euro for RDU to GSO. RDU definitely mixes with sleet here but the QPF is much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Euro coming in stronger and a tick north, maybe 30 miles. Sounds like it's following the other guidance. I'm wondering if you, or someone else, might briefly recap the 12z model suite for historical purposes. Maybe a quick precip map of each? What do you all think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 As of this morning. >=6' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Euro say CLT gets clocked, looks to be all snow, close to 1" QPF. RDU is right at 1.25" QPF, GSO to 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RAP may not be off it's rockers. HRRR is pretty wild right now looking at composite radar. Went to lunch with Rankin today and I thought he was gonna fall off his chair when I showed it to him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 As of this morning. >=6' Yeah, I would move that blob about a county north since the recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The Euro crosses at 998 mb NW of CHS. Just a polite 50-75 mile NW jump at zero hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Yeh, so that RAP is 25 inches of snow for me....in what, maybe 10-12 hrs max of precip.. LOL. Then again, if it was to somehow verify, we'd all be have one to talk about for years and years.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Yeah, I would move that blob about a county north since the recent runs. You're crazy...I guess time will tell but everything about this screams big dog from GSP to CLT to RDU. It's happening. Gotta look at synoptics and all the forcing and VVs. Were all getting slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 No doubt. Steady as she goes from GSP-CLT back west to the foothills. You're crazy...I guess time will tell but everything about this screams big dog from GSP to CLT to RDU. It's happening. Gotta look at synoptics and all the forcing and VVs. Were all getting slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Euro say CLT gets clocked, looks to be all snow, close to 1" QPF. RDU is right at 1.25" QPF, GSO to 1". Wow. Is it warmer or colder due to the increase in QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 12Z King is ~25 miles further NW than the 0Z King and is a bit warmer for many but it still isn't nearly as far NW as the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The Euro crosses at 998 mb NW of CHS. Just a polite 50-75 mile NW jump at zero hour.Dang just saw an accumulated snowfall forecast on the 12z euro has significant snow into the western areas as well now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wow. Is it warmer or colder due to the increase in QPF? CLT and RDU are close, but probably all-snow, at least based on 850s. Where I am is comfortably all-snow with 0.9" QPF, so I think it's time to go all-in for 6-12"... hope I don't regret it. Go big or go home. 1.3" QPF for RDU and 0.9" for CLT. The surface low pressure passes OVER Cape Hatteras at 994 mb at hr 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 You're crazy...I guess time will tell but everything about this screams big dog from GSP to CLT to RDU. It's happening. Gotta look at synoptics and all the forcing and VVs. Were all getting slammed. That's what makes this so exciting. When I forecast, I look for reasons that things are NOT going to pan out... That way I'm not looking through my snow goggles too much. In my opinion, based on model data, the cold air supply just isn't THAT strong and with this low ticking north every model run since yesterday, Wake is going to be right smack dab in the transition zone. Northern wake, lots more snow. Southern Wake near JoCO, more rain mixed in. We will see what happens! No hard feelings here if anyone disagrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The euro is printing out 1.27 exactly for rdu. It increase qpf by over 1 inch 12 hours before the storm. Not surprised, but still crazzzzyy when you think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The euro is printing out 1.27 exactly for rdu. It increase qpf by over 1 inch 12 hours before the storm. Not surprised, but still crazzzzyy when you think about it. It had less than 0.2" here two runs ago and now it's showing nearly 1". It's really done a terrible job for this storm with regards to precipitation amounts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 The Euro crosses at 998 mb NW of CHS. Just a polite 50-75 mile NW jump at zero hour. Well that escalated quickly. Indeed, RAP may be onto something. Maybe not widespread 2' amounts but could see a nice long stripe of 12"+ . The sref members (at leas the arw ones) have been consistent with a stripe of 12"+ for a few runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Euro...this just snow, or what it thinks is snow, doesn't include sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 That's what makes this so exciting. When I forecast, I look for reasons that things are NOT going to pan out... That way I'm not looking through my snow goggles too much. In my opinion, based on model data, the cold air supply just isn't THAT strong and with this low ticking north every model run since yesterday, Wake is going to be right smack dab in the transition zone. Northern wake, lots more snow. Southern Wake near JoCO, more rain mixed in. We will see what happens! No hard feelings here if anyone disagrees. But this storm isn't reliant on a cold air feed. It's dynamics and how strong and fast it is. Models are not going to pick up on exactly how much forcing and dynamics are around. I guess there is the chance it doesn't stay as strong so we get some mixing issues but right now, again everything screams that this is the big dog we've been dreaming about the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Just a reminder for everyone... I have an hourly updating HRRR domain centered over NC/SC for this event http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#flt Also have hourly soundings for select locations (and more can be added as requested). These are also updating hourly. KGSP KAVL KGSO KCLT KRDU Happy event tracking everyone. Rooting for everyone in the southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GSP updated AFD: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AS OF 1240 PM...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP TRENDS.OTHERWISE IT APPEARS THAT THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. PRECIP SHOWINGUP ON REGIONAL RADARS ENTERING GA WHICH IS STILL EXPECTED REACHWESTERN AREAS BY 5 PM. STILL COUNTING ON RAIN AT THE ONSET MAINLYALONG AND SOUTH THE I-85 CORRIDOR WITH DYNAMIC COOLING BEING COUNTEDTO COOL PROFILES ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Where ever the transition line ends up, there could be some pretty crazy accumulation gradients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Hammertime on the Euro for RDU to GSO. RDU definitely mixes with sleet here but the QPF is much higher. Hard to tell with out soundings or less then hourly output. Wake county is never above 0 on any of the 6 hour time steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Snow map that includes everything frozen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Euro...this just snow, or what it thinks is snow, doesn't include sleet. The 9" line is literally right on top of my house. The gradient on the south side is sick. Unless all of these models are out to lunch, this storm is going to end up over or inside of Cape Hatteras. It's not done trending yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Thanks Phil! That will come in handy tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 It had less than 0.2" here two runs ago and now it's showing nearly 1". It's really done a terrible job for this storm with regards to precipitation amounts... Yea it only had .3 or so in raleigh i think 12z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Just a reminder for everyone... I have an hourly updating HRRR domain centered over NC/SC for this event http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#flt Also have hourly soundings for select locations (and more can be added as requested). This are also updating hourly. KGSP KAVL KGSO KCLT KRDU Happy event tracking everyone. Rooting for everyone in the southeast Thanks, Phil! Do you have any predictions with regards to this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Euro...this just snow, or what it thinks is snow, doesn't include sleet. That really moved North. Looks like the new jackpot area is I 40 from I 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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