griteater Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looks like the RAP has about 7"/hr rates here between hr 15-16. K. (I don't trust the RAP at this range.) Yeah, don't trust the specific output, but there's no denying much of the modeling honing in on the precip bullseye from the SC upstate to Norfolk...that's my takeaway this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 RAP still keeping with wacky snowfall amts from CLT to GSO to RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Here you can see the RAP trending stronger with the s/w during the overnight hours (see the 546dm line fall into the trough) http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=rap&run_time=16z¶m=500mbHGHT&map=SE&run_hour=14&loop=trend Dang the rap is wet with 18 hr accumulated qpf!! Has the 1/2" line right up to ROA now and the NC mountains very wet! This is trending good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RAP really continues to key on heavy banding into the upstate at HR 13 on the 16Z. Keeping the lower end into the foothills and nothern upstate. Still a big hit!! ^ as shown on the map WOW posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The latest RAP soundings aren't far off from a Wintry event into the Lake Murray area (West of Columbia) 0.1 off at one point. KCAE basically doesn't know where the gradient will setup either. Shawn going to have to really watch this and the hi-res NAM (I still not trusting the NAM) but is has a corridor of below 0c at 850 at times from me to you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RAP still keeping with wacky snowfall amts from CLT to GSO to RDU looks like it is about 25 miles south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 LOL, neither have I. It's no doubt overdone and I wouldn't trust the RAP this far out, regardless, but that's just nuts. Even the darker blue is 5"+/hr. The dark greens are rippin' at 2"+/hr. More than likely but I predict you'll hear some big boomers out of that band! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 2 feet of snow. That's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The RAP has lost its mind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm guessing the RAP cannot be trusted this far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The RAP has lost its mind! Is your snow output broken like it was with the dgex and counting double? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'll have to look back to last year's big one and see what the RAP was showing ahead of that one. Was it taking crazy pills then too.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Shawn going to have to really watch this and the hi-res NAM (I still not trusting the NAM) but is has a corridor of below 0c at 850 at times from me to you! Are you seeing what the RAP modeling is still trying to do down this way? Since I have started paying attention, the last 3 runs at least have had significant Winter weather into CAE. 8 inch amounts of my house for some reason. I just can't exactly see it, but the RAP is initializing parameters much better from what I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Great question? What is the RAP best times to watch? I'm guessing the RAP cannot be trusted this far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'll have to look back to last year's big one and see what the RAP was showing ahead of that one. Was it taking crazy pills then too.? Looks like it nailed the quick changeover to sleet pretty well (I changed over by 6 PM) and the high totals beforehead. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42840-the-big-one-forecast-discussion-ii/ Of course, this was using it ~5-10 hours out, not 15-18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 It will at least be fun to look at on bufkit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hickory Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I have a question for anyone to answer. I just noticed that wxsouth said that there could be power outages with this event due to the heavy wet snow. I was in High Point, NC during the Feb 25-26th 2004 event where we got 16 inches of snow at night and we didn't lose any power. My question is it possibly what he is saying? And How does heavy wet snow have the same destructive power as a ice storm? Thank you for your time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 WSB's latest thinking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I have a question for anyone to answer. I just noticed that wxsouth said that there could be power outages with this event due to the heavy wet snow. I was in High Point, NC during the Feb 25-26th 2004 event where we got 16 inches of snow at night and we didn't lose any power. My question is it possibly what he is saying? And How does heavy wet snow have the same destructive power as a ice storm? Thank you for your time. Heavy wet snow sticks to trees and power lines easily and is generally heavy, which can cause trees to fall on power lines, etc., much like freezing rain. The January 2013 ULL that dropped 3-5" at 33-34 degrees in this area knocked out power, for example. Then, of course, Robert had all that craziness in March 2009 with a tree hitting his house after he got 8" of heavy, wet snow in above freezing temperatures. That being said, we might escape without the wetter snow. Looks like it could be a little drier up this way, so I am not sure if it's as much of a concern (and you're even a tick more north than I). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 US National Weather Service Raleigh NC Just now · Latest guidance suggests we may need to increase snow totals a few inches from Raleigh north and east to Roanoke Rapids and Tarboro. In addition we expect a dramatic gradient or range in accumulations from north to south across Wayne, Johnston and Harnett Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Is your snow output broken like it was with the dgex and counting double? LOL no. YOu can match these snow amounts up with the qpf. 10:1 ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 It will at least be fun to look at on bufkit Looking at the 11AM RAP Bufkit data for CAE, there is a very heavy band of snow dropping .23 in one hour in the area.. but still nothing like shown on the current maps from the model center. I am pretty confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Is it suggestable the RAP can be trusted at this range for where it shows the highest concentrations though? Unbelievable amounts aside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 How reliable is the RAP anyway? NWS keeps moving the rain/snow transition line to 85, then back down to upstate SC, 85, now it's back down to upstate SC. If the trends keep going up with qpf, perhaps Charlotte can get some heavy accumulations. I'd still like to get below freezing at the surface to avoid melting as it falls, but it doesn't quite look like that's going to happen. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Are you seeing what the RAP modeling is still trying to do down this way? Since I have started paying attention, the last 3 runs at least have had significant Winter weather into CAE. 8 inch amounts of my house for some reason. I just can't exactly see it, but the RAP is initializing parameters much better from what I have seen. Ya I saw that Partly because the RAP is going nuts with the SFC LOW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I have a question for anyone to answer. I just noticed that wxsouth said that there could be power outages with this event due to the heavy wet snow. I was in High Point, NC during the Feb 25-26th 2004 event where we got 16 inches of snow at night and we didn't lose any power. My question is it possibly what he is saying? And How does heavy wet snow have the same destructive power as a ice storm? Thank you for your time. Power outage problems will be due to snow buildup on trees which can hold the snow - like pines, cedars, magnolia, etc. Deciduous trees like Oak, maples, which have no leaves or foliage right now should be fine for the most part. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Euro coming in stronger and a tick north, maybe 30 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looking at the 11AM RAP Bufkit data for CAE, there is a very heavy band of snow dropping .23 in one hour in the area.. but still nothing like shown on the current maps from the model center. I am pretty confused. I would look for ground truth out west b/f believing it. If MS stars reporting 16 inch totals it may be right lol. Don't see that happening yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Is the cold air supply from the north as strong as forecasted? We need that shot of cold air in place to give us the largest amounts. That's the thing I worry about with the H not being in the ideal location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Euro coming in stronger and a tick north, maybe 30 miles. Every model from here on out will tick north. That's been the trend, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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