Wow Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 At what point is a low down in that latitude too strong? I'm thinking this could definitely bring it further north. there's no magic number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Gotta love that 998mb low over S GA on the RAP. The UK had a very similar look. 1000mb low in basically the same place. The UK was also quite warm but again this isn't really its specialty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Rap forecast sounding for atlanta at 12 hours.. ridiculously close. Pretty much ignore the surface temp/dps because it's highly likely it's too warm since rap has a warm bias at the surface. The rap is actually showing quite a bit of cooling after saturation which implies it's seeing cooling thanks to the heavy precip/dynamics instead of evaporation. What this means is the models might be too warm and as you can see it would take such a tiny bit of cooling aloft for it to go over to mostly snow..assuming these temps are exactly right..which they probably aren't just because of average margin of error. That said, it must be cautioned they could be a touch too cold if the waa is under estimated. But it's hard to see that being the case...especially since the trend has been to show more cooling thanks to strong dynamics/precip rates. Date: 12 hour valid 3Z THU 26 FEB 15 Station: 33.65,-84.42 Latitude: 33.65 Longitude: -84.42 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 56 SFC 976 258 2.1 1.6 97 0.5 1.9 50 6 277.2 277.9 276.2 289.2 4.41 2 950 482 0.7 0.6 99 0.1 0.7 63 16 277.9 278.6 276.4 289.5 4.21 3 900 916 0.6 0.3 98 0.3 0.5 94 19 282.1 282.9 278.7 294.3 4.36 4 850 1375 0.7 0.6 99 0.2 0.7 135 13 286.9 287.8 281.4 300.3 4.69 5 800 1862 0.5 0.4 99 0.1 0.4 205 13 291.6 292.5 283.7 305.9 4.92 6 750 2380 -0.7 -1.0 98 0.3 -0.8 220 21 295.8 296.7 285.2 309.8 4.75 7 700 2930 -2.1 -2.3 98 0.2 -2.2 213 34 300.2 301.0 286.8 314.0 4.60 8 650 3518 -2.6 -2.7 99 0.1 -2.6 209 56 306.1 307.0 289.0 320.9 4.84 9 600 4152 -4.2 -4.3 99 0.1 -4.3 214 74 311.2 312.1 290.5 325. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 For last weeks event the RGEM was insistent on flipping to freezing rain for RDU, we never did. The NAM consistently said it would be all sleet and it was. Will see, it's close. Usually, atleast for RDU, we almost always mix with bigger events, so I am expecting some sleet, hoping half snow and half sleet. Thanks Pack...in our good snows here, we don't usually mix to sleet much at all...going to be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The UK had a very similar look. 1000mb low in basically the same place. Yep, and a 996 mb off of the OBX. Stronger, and wetter, especially for us in WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Yep, and a 996 mb off of the OBX. Stronger, and wetter, especially for us an WNC. That looks good James! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 UK is interesting. It previously had a big south bias with storms, but it got an upgrade in the past year...and I believe it was a little north biased with our last event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Check out the HRRR simulated radar loop - this is at 11PM. Something heavy is going to be falling from the sky...lol - http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRSE_CUR/rloop.html That has the look of a future dry slot all over it IMO. Jackpots Oxford/ Henderson all the way to Norfolk. We've had this set up before folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The RAP is the only model that has a clue WRT dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The Governor of the great state of Georgia is on TWC right now declaring a State of Emergency for the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I hope that the UKMET's position of the low in SE GA is too far NW for ATL-AHN's sake if you want primarily snow! I'm assuming it is too far NW and should be near Brunswick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 That has the look of a future dry slot all over it IMO. Jackpots Oxford/ Henderson all the way to Norfolk. We've had this set up before folks. Hopefully the storm is tracking more easterly at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Well I'm pulling trigger going 8 to 12 Randolph county. Nws has 6 to 10. The ukie and nam surface pressures really back up the higher qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Track does not look promising for eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I hope that the UKMET's position of the low in SE GA is too far north for ATL-AHN's sake if you want primarily snow! I'm assuming it is too far north and should be near Brunswick. Every run of every model continues to trend stronger and more NW, so it's s to be given some credibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The latest RAP soundings aren't far off from a Wintry event into the Lake Murray area (West of Columbia) 0.1 off at one point. KCAE basically doesn't know where the gradient will setup either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 That has the look of a future dry slot all over it IMO. Jackpots Oxford/ Henderson all the way to Norfolk. We've had this set up before folks. With the 5h vort max tracking to our west into W NC, I would normally agree that you would see notable dry slotting into W SC and C / E NC. However, this is going to be a compact, relatively fast moving storm....as opposed to a slower moving, wound up storm that would be more subject to the development of a dry slot. Essentially, the dry slot doesn't get a good chance to form as all of the good precip is over with before it does....the radar simulations show this well....my opinions on it anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 UK is interesting. It previously had a big south bias with storms, but it got an upgrade in the past year...and I believe it was a little north biased with our last event Yep, last week it was by the farthest north 12-24 hours out, wasn't even close to verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 WRF NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The Governor of the great state of Georgia is on TWC right now declaring a State of Emergency for the state. 50 counties from 1pm today to 1 pm tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The latest RAP soundings aren't far off from a Wintry event into the Lake Murray area (West of Columbia) 0.1 off at one point. KCAE basically doesn't know where the gradient will setup either. I'm between Irmo and Chapin right near the lake and I may see something. Unfortunately it will prob be less wintry than what I saw yesterday morning otw to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 With the 5h vort max tracking to our west into W NC, I would normally agree that you would see notable dry slotting into W SC and C / E NC. However, this is going to be a compact, relatively fast moving storm....as opposed to a slower moving, wound up storm that would be more subject to the development of a dry slot. Essentially, the dry slot doesn't get a good chance to form as all of the good precip is over with before it does....the radar simulations show this well....my opinions on it anyway I don't really see much of a dry slot as this is working out. Dry slots are more associated with miller B's. The low is coming out of the deep south and up the SE coast. Yes, there will be less qpf as you head west from the coast, but I don't consider this a dry slot. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Begs the question though. Why does the GFS dry slot this area?You apparently missed the RAP run a little while !Why even use the GFS at 4 hours or so til start time?! Use radar and now cast and short range models, throw out GFS , it's been wrong the whe week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 Here you can see the RAP trending stronger with the s/w during the overnight hours (see the 546dm line fall into the trough) http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=rap&run_time=16z¶m=500mbHGHT&map=SE&run_hour=14&loop=trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Gotta love that 998mb low over S GA on the RAP. We'd love it more here if it were over Jacksonville ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 UK is interesting. It previously had a big south bias with storms, but it got an upgrade in the past year...and I believe it was a little north biased with our last event I have closely followed the UK for a few different storms this year. It has been just money around 4 days out but inside the last 48 hours it has been somewhat erratic. It wouldn't make my top 5 preferred guidance right now but it's hardly alone in its trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looks like the RAP has about 7"/hr rates here between hr 15-16. K. (I don't trust the RAP at this range.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looks like the RAP has about 7"/hr rates here between hr 15-16. K. I'm not sure i've ever seen the rap show that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm between Irmo and Chapin right near the lake and I may see something. Unfortunately it will prob be less wintry than what I saw yesterday morning otw to work. This is a highly volatile forecast. I will tell you, that some of the dynamic cooling will throw major kinks into the current forecast at points in the storm. If the warm air advection is over-done, then expect some big surprises with a tight gradient around the entire area of the Midlands from a line of McCormick over to Lee county. West Columbia and point's west have a higher change to mix over or even possibly change over to Wintry weather under the heaviest precipitation. Any Southern shift in the Low track can greatly affect the final precipitation-type. If you remember the freezing rain scare recently, that was forecast to stay well North of the area but the Low made a last adjustment just enough South to get Blytewood involved and ultimately forced a Freezing Rain Advisory all the way down to Southern Lexington county. On the flip side, if the Low tracks stronger and slightly more Northwestward, a lot more areas will end up "just" too warm. This system is a quick mover and I would assume by 2-3AM, the entire CAE region is seeing the last of the precip exit the region. KCAE currently has a HWO out that reads the following: HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 415 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 GAZ040-SCZ018-025>029-031-260915- LINCOLN-MCCORMICK-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-RICHLAND-LEE-SUMTER- 415 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. DUE TO THE NEARNESS OF THE RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER LINE WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH...THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SEEING A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS THESE COUNTIES AT SOME POINT TONIGHT. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm not sure i've ever seen the rap show that before. LOL, neither have I. It's no doubt overdone and I wouldn't trust the RAP this far out, regardless, but that's just nuts. Even the darker blue is 5"+/hr. The dark greens are rippin' at 2"+/hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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