Snowacane Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Man you just refuse to except that snow is happening. Slight and a bit are minor...thus NO IMMEDIATE OR SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS. Calling or mostly rain would be significant. I like our chances as he has been wrong about everything he posts. This will be quite the storm, with a great set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 How accurate is this GFS? Seems like those totals are very low for the upstate and a big snow how in NE GA It's not a great short term model and has busted big time on thermal profiles this year. The RGEM has done the best IMO for short range ... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Not sure if it's been mentioned but the GGEM drops 1" qpf on RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 East of downtown. I think we see sleet and that is it. This was fairly close to a catastrophic ice storm there, I think it may end up 33 and raining most of the event, those 42s and 44s the models were spitting out were definite hogwash for sure which was fairly evident yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viper652 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Rocky Mount wont get the shaft this time. We are suppose to get the most snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 It dry slots me. I just don't see it. We are sitting at 38.5 and DP at 27. I can't imagine that much moisture getting eaten up with dry air that is not horribly dry. BTW, Wet Bulbs are now 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 There has to be a warm layer near 925-970 across AL/MS and GA because there are numerous reports of 33-34 and rain, given the model forecasts of a warm layer only 800-850 that does not make sense, that would fall as sleet most of the time and not RA so there is another warm layer somewhere below 900 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Not sure if it's been mentioned but the GGEM drops 1" qpf on RDU Nice thing about this event for our area, is the precipitation will occur over night. This provides one more advantage to see real accumulations; compared to actual ground accumulations shown on maps earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 This was fairly close to a catastrophic ice storm there, I think it may end up 33 and raining most of the event, those 42s and 44s the models were spitting out were definite hogwash for sure which was fairly evident yesterday. goose - can you restate the biases of the rgem again at this time range? I know you've commented on it in the past. It ticked a little warmer this run and brings some sleet into CLT and RDU. General rule is go with the warmest warm nose, lol...but was curious if you or others have comments on its biases, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Nice thing about this event for our area, is the precipitation will occur over night. This provides one more advantage to see real accumulations; compared to actual ground accumulations shown on maps earlier. Exactly. This is a huge help for us this time of year. Realistically, thr snow should have no trouble accumulating, even if temps are 31-33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Current thinking: Asheville - 3 to 6 Charlotte - 4 to 8 Hickory - 5 to 7 Greensboro - 6 - 10 Greenville SC - 3 - 6 Fayetteville - 2 to 4 Martinsville VA 3 - 6 Raleigh 6 - 10 Roanoke Rapids - Suffolk VA - 10 to 14 N GA Mountains - 3 to 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Found this interesting to say the least. AS OF 0945 AM...MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST THETIMING OF THE PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12ZNAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP AS WELL AS THECONSHORT GUIDANCE. BLENDING IN THE CONSHORT POPS BRINGS CATEGORICALPOPS INTO NE GA...FAR WESTERN UPSTATE AND THE SW NC MOUNTAINS ABOUT19-20Z...GREENVILLE/ASHEVILLE 22-23Z AND CLT AREA 23-00Z. STILLLOOKS LIKE PRECIP OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIODOF RAIN BEFORE DYNAMICS QUICKLY COOL THE COLUMN TO AN ALL SNOWSOUNDING. THE ATLANTA 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED WARMNOSE BELOW 700 MB WHICH SUBSTANTIATES THE IDEA THAT THERE WILL BE ASHARP GRADIENT BEWTEEN RAIN AND SNOW SETTING UP SOMEWHERE FROM NORTHGA...EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SC UPSTATE.THEREFORE...SNOW AMOUNTS IN COUNTIES LIKE ELBERT...ABBEVILLE ANDGREENWOOD WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. OTHERWISE ITIS ALSO NOTEWORTHY THAT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLASSIC CROSSHAIR SIGNATURES AT PLACES LIKE GSP AND CLT WHICH INDICATE VERYEFFICIENT SNOWFALL RATES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVECOMPONENTS TO LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL TOTALS. LOOKS LIKE A WINDOWOF ABOUT 6 HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH 1-2 INCHES PERHOUR...ESPECIALLY WHERE BANDING OCCURS. HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNICANTCHANCES TO CURRENT STORM TOTAL SNOW....EXCEPT JUST FOR SOME MINORADJUSTMENTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...LOWERD TODAYS MAX TEMPS ALITTLE BASED ON THICKENING CLOUDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Current thinking: Asheville - 3 to 6 Charlotte - 4 to 8 Hickory - 5 to 7 Greensboro - 6 - 10 Greenville SC - 3 - 6 Fayetteville - 2 to 4 Martinsville 3 - 6 Raleigh 6 - 10 Roanoke Rapids - Suffolk VA - 10 to 14 N GA Mountains - 3 to 6 Thanks Hky...agree with that jackpot zone Roanoke Rapids to Norfolk area. What are your thoughts on mixing for CLT and RDU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 There has to be a warm layer near 925-970 across AL/MS and GA because there are numerous reports of 33-34 and rain, given the model forecasts of a warm layer only 800-850 that does not make sense, that would fall as sleet most of the time and not RA so there is another warm layer somewhere below 900 72230 BMX Shelby County Airport Observations at 12Z 25 Feb 2015----------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT THTA THTE THTV hPa m C C % g/kg deg knot K K K ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1000.0 122 994.0 178 1.6 -5.4 60 2.58 0 0 275.2 282.5 275.6 992.0 194 1.6 -6.4 55 2.40 1 0 275.4 282.2 275.8 955.0 495 -0.9 -9.9 50 1.90 26 9 275.9 281.3 276.2 941.2 610 -0.5 -8.2 56 2.20 35 12 277.4 283.7 277.8 925.0 747 -0.1 -6.1 64 2.63 45 4 279.2 286.8 279.6 917.0 817 0.2 -5.8 64 2.72 101 4 280.2 288.0 280.7 905.9 914 -0.2 -5.8 66 2.76 180 3 280.8 288.7 281.2 882.0 1128 -1.1 -5.7 71 2.85 194 7 282.0 290.2 282.5 872.0 1219 -0.6 -5.4 70 2.95 200 8 283.4 292.1 284.0 861.0 1320 0.0 -5.0 69 3.08 222 9 285.1 294.1 285.6 851.0 1414 3.6 -6.4 48 2.80 243 10 289.8 298.2 290.3 850.0 1424 4.0 -7.0 45 2.67 245 10 290.3 298.4 290.8 844.0 1482 5.4 -14.6 22 1.47 248 12 292.4 297.0 292.6 836.0 1560 6.8 -18.2 15 1.10 252 14 294.6 298.2 294.9 819.0 1728 6.0 -13.0 24 1.72 260 20 295.5 301.0 295.9 815.0 1768 6.2 -11.8 26 1.91 262 21 296.2 302.2 296.5 809.0 1829 6.3 -16.0 18 1.37 265 23 296.9 301.3 297.2 797.0 1951 6.6 -24.4 9 0.67 267 23 298.5 300.8 298.6 792.0 2003 6.8 -22.2 11 0.82 268 23 299.2 302.0 299.4 782.0 2107 6.2 -15.8 19 1.43 270 23 299.7 304.4 299.9 779.4 2134 6.0 -15.7 19 1.45 270 23 299.8 304.5 300.1 754.0 2405 4.4 -14.6 24 1.64 270 27 300.9 306.2 301.2 750.9 2438 4.4 -15.7 22 1.51 270 28 301.2 306.2 301.5 732.0 2646 4.6 -22.4 12 0.87 273 32 303.6 306.6 303.8 723.3 2743 4.0 -14.3 25 1.76 275 34 304.1 309.8 304.4 720.0 2780 3.8 -11.2 33 2.27 275 34 304.2 311.5 304.6 700.0 3008 1.8 -11.2 37 2.33 275 36 304.4 312.0 304.9 694.0 3077 1.4 -11.6 37 2.28 273 37 304.8 312.1 305.2 687.0 3159 1.2 -7.8 51 3.11 272 38 305.4 315.3 306.0 649.0 3614 -2.7 -7.7 68 3.32 261 43 306.0 316.6 306.6 645.4 3658 -3.0 -7.1 73 3.48 260 43 306.1 317.2 306.8 640.0 3724 -3.5 -6.3 81 3.75 260 44 306.3 318.2 307.0 602.0 4205 -7.1 -8.6 89 3.33 260 52 307.6 318.2 308.2 597.2 4267 -7.3 -9.7 83 3.10 260 53 308.0 318.0 308.6 597.0 4270 -7.3 -9.7 83 3.08 260 53 308.1 318.0 308.6 590.0 4362 -7.1 -14.1 57 2.19 259 53 309.3 316.6 309.8 580.0 4495 -7.1 -16.1 49 1.89 258 53 310.9 317.2 311.2 551.8 4877 -10.6 -17.4 57 1.77 255 52 311.1 317.1 311.4 511.0 5466 -16.1 -19.5 75 1.61 255 51 311.4 316.8 311.7 509.7 5486 -16.2 -19.6 75 1.60 255 51 311.6 317.0 311.9 500.0 5630 -16.7 -19.9 76 1.59 260 50 312.6 318.0 312.9 469.7 6096 -19.2 -22.2 77 1.38 270 44 315.1 319.9 315.4 448.0 6448 -21.1 -24.0 77 1.23 267 58 317.1 321.4 317.3 420.0 6924 -22.7 -25.9 75 1.11 263 76 320.9 324.9 321.1 400.0 7280 -24.9 -28.4 73 0.93 260 90 322.5 325.9 322.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 BMX office is south of Birmingham proper (if there ever was such a place) They removed the WSW for counties south of I-20 & changed them to a WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 You're going to get pounded buddy, don't worry. Begs the question though. Why does the GFS dry slot this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 BMX office is south of Birmingham proper (if there ever was such a place) They removed the WSW for counties south of I-20 & changed them to a WWA Yeah it was the closest one I could find that seemed relevant. I know Snowgoose has the sounding data but I thought some people may not know where to get it so I decided to just post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Thanks Hky...agree with that jackpot zone Roanoke Rapids to Norfolk area. What are your thoughts on mixing for CLT and RDU? That factors in sleet. I think Charlotte and Raleigh will both have a period of sleet, how much is the question. It's good to see the other mods coming in line w/ the nam qpf wise, like i thought they might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Nice thing about this event for our area, is the precipitation will occur over night. This provides one more advantage to see real accumulations; compared to actual ground accumulations shown on maps earlier. Indeed. I think this will be a blockbuster for all who are along and north of HWY 64 in central NC. We should stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Appears the early finger setting up further south than originally thought, I.e. currently over ATL when it was supposed to be further north. How that affects downstream I don't know but it's definitely something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm hoping that the line for mixing issues stays south and east of the Albemarle Sound. KECG should do okay if that occurs, but if we get mixing issues, most of Extreme Northeast NC could see very low totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Indeed. I think this will be a blockbuster for all who are along and north of HWY 64 in central NC. We should stay all snow. I wouldn't ever assume anyone in central NC is going to stay all snow throughout pretty much any storm. Too many times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 Gotta love that 998mb low over S GA on the RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Appears the early finger setting up further south than originally thought, I.e. currently over ATL when it was supposed to be further north. How that affects downstream I don't know but it's definitely something to watch. Nothing but very filtered sunshine underneath that band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Gotta love that 998mb low over S GA on the RAP. At what point is a low down in that latitude too strong? I'm thinking this could definitely bring it further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Gotta love that 998mb low over S GA on the RAP. Nice little wedging signature there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Here it is folks, an all new weather video update on the storm. I still think things are on track for some wintry weather deep into the heart of the SE. Check the video for more. Thanks everyone! -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looking at the current weather map, it looks like that piece of energy in Kansas is diving down to join this energy. Anyone else seeing this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Check out the HRRR simulated radar loop - this is at 11PM. Something heavy is going to be falling from the sky...lol - http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRSE_CUR/rloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 goose - can you restate the biases of the rgem again at this time range? I know you've commented on it in the past. It ticked a little warmer this run and brings some sleet into CLT and RDU. General rule is go with the warmest warm nose, lol...but was curious if you or others have comments on its biases, thanks. For last weeks event the RGEM was insistent on flipping to freezing rain for RDU, we never did. The NAM consistently said it would be all sleet and it was. Will see, it's close. Usually, atleast for RDU, we almost always mix with bigger events, so I am expecting some sleet, hoping half snow and half sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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