BullCityWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Dewpoint is 4 degrees cooler on my sounding than what was observed at 10AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Matthew East @eastwx 21s22 seconds ago Some of the short-range modeling really cranking the precip amounts tonight in the Carolinas. Will monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The actual 10 AM temperatures as well as dewpoints are quite a bit lower than progged by the 6Z GFS in the ATL-AHN area: ATL temp./DP: prog 37/27. Actual 34/25. PDK: prog 36/27; actual 33/24 MGE: prog 36/26; actual 33/24 AHN: prog 37/29; actual 35/28 GVL: prog 36/29; actual 32/23 However, I will note that the sun is partially shining through thin overcast and has warmed me to 34.3, up about a degree over the last 20 minutes. High Feb sun angle? HA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 What is blizzard criteria? 35 mph winds and 1/4 mile visibility for several hours, 3-4 I think I can't remember. You can have a blizzard warning for just blowing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Just looked at the RAP Has my area with almost an inch of liquid with a good amount yet to fall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm seeing sleet reports near Birmingham. Although this may only be temporary, I'm starting to wonder more and more about sleet POSSIBLY ending up as a primary precip type for a decent number of folks. Keep in mind the wedge now showing up on at least the GFS while low level wetbulbs are currently colder than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Right now for Conyers, at 9:45 AM, I was at 32 degrees with a 21 degree dewpoint, but that was an hour ago so things have probably changed. Impressed with how low my dewpoint is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RAP model just dropped a glacier on the charlotte metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm seeing sleet reports near Birmingham. Although this may only be temporary, I'm starting to wonder more and more about sleet POSSIBLY ending up as a primary precip type for a decent number of folks. Keep in mind the wedge now showing up on at least the GFS while low level wetbulbs are currently colder than progged. We'll see. Hopefully, the colder profiles vary over here. But I have seen stronger storms screw with the thermals more than the models showed. It wouldn't surprise me to see more sleet mixing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Brad P. expanded the 6-8" area on his map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RAP now throwing an inch of QPF all the way back into the foothills of NC now. Oy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 See WX south lastest post on facebook. But yes, the trend has been to increase totals back towards us \ RAP now throwing an inch of QPF all the way back into the foothills of NC now. Oy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 We'll see. Hopefully, the colder profiles vary over here. But I have seen stronger storms screw with the thermals more than the models showed. It wouldn't surprise me to see more sleet mixing in. GFS just came in large and a touch colder than it's 6z run...this is the 12z NAM for RDU... http://coolwx.com/modelts/images/nam/current/KRDU/prec.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I hope it's ok for me to be posting these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RAP now throwing an inch of QPF all the way back into the foothills of NC now. Oy. Is that 1.5 over my house? o O My avatar is my reaction to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RAP now throwing an inch of QPF all the way back into the foothills of NC now. Oy. Thanks. Wow! GFS just came in large and a touch colder than it's 6z run...this is the 12z NAM for RDU... Nice. That's what we wanna see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 WxSouth 30 mins · ****The Storm is Getting Serious and borderline Dangerous ***I'm updating new snow map forecast. The latest data and trends point to a widespread 6 to 10" snowstorm from parts of Alabama Georgia to Carolinas and Virginia now. The RAP and NAM are both excellent short term tools and are increasing amounts drastically--on top of what was already slated to be a big event. In some areas this will be a devastating snowstorm, with tree falls and roof collapses, and power outages.Ths is no ordinary dry powdery snow. This is extremely WET , heavy snow. The problems will come from too much falling too fast---simple as that. The trees won't be able to slough off the snow in time, when it's falling at up to 2" per hour (in some areas). That's why I'm extremely concerned especially north side of Birmingham and Atlanta to all of Upstate South Carolina, through interior NC and southeast Quadrant of Virginia, where now Richmond is in line for bigger totals than thought. A 6" storm is manageable, but when 8" or more of this Cement falls in a very short time like this one will, then power issues arise FAST. And there could be over a FOOT in parts of the Carolinas and possibly part of GA, AR, VA as well. You might want to get all your shopping/errands/preps done now if you're in these regions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Thanks. Wow! Nice. That's what we wanna see. Both showing over a foot for Wake County. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GFS is showing a pretty nice wedge at hr12. That's a good sign for ATL and areas eastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The GFS is completely different than the nam with respect to the northwest qpf. Oh well it's short range models and radar time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GFS is showing a pretty nice wedge at hr12. That's a good sign for ATL and areas eastward I've been seeing this feature as well. That could be the thing that saves me in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GFS is showing a pretty nice wedge at hr12. That's a good sign for ATL and areas eastward Anyone seen a sounding for ATL today? Could see a prolonged period of sleet if we have a wedge sliding in. As Chris says, "NEVER BET AGAINST A WEDGE". Words to live by, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GFS is much drier for WNC, only .25-.50... Drier than the past few runs instead of wetter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Boy is FFC going to have a lot of egg on their face for still having snow so far south in the ATL area. RGEM, HRRR 2M temps all have no chance of snow ITP except perhaps at the very end a few flakes- maybe some sleet because of the wet bulbs being less than the models. But overall, if I get any measurable snow at my house I will be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GFS is much drier for WNC, only .25-.50... Drier than the past few runs instead of wetter.. Looks to be an outlier for sure. Especially after seeing the latest RAP come in. Oh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I hope it's ok for me to be posting these get_orig_img.png If that verifies...I'll have no words. Wow. Wow. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brownpm85 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Is that 1.5 over my house? o O My avatar is my reaction to this. I live in the Greenville SC area too. I love reading how you guys dissect the models, but if the storm comes in too strong (if that is even possible) does it risk bringing up warm air from the south near the gulf which would hinder our accumulations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 gfs another crush job for rdu. widespread 8-10" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 FWIW... US National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 41 mins · Balloon has reached 400 mb (about 24,000 feet). Data is being sent to national centers to be ingested into computer models. #alwx #bmxwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 SNOW really picking up in Shreveport LA right now....Here is a webcam that refreshes every 10 mins and you can really tell the differences from one 10 min to the next.... http://www.sohiweather.com/webcam.php Also that finger extended out ahead of everything else that Lookout mentioned yesterday is really starting to extend east. Basically already in extreme west Georgia already.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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