BullCityWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RAP is starting to show some 2 inch liquid lollipops in the upstate at the end of its run with precip still falling.... It's pretty insane. With the NAM increasing QPF in it's previous 2 runs, makes you wonder if it's onto something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RGEM a tick stronger with the SLP and thus a tick further NW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RAP is starting to show some 2 inch liquid lollipops in the upstate at the end of its run with precip still falling.... assuming some of that initial precip is liquid - anyway, impressive - would GSP consider Heavy Snow Warnings for the catchment area? what is the criteria for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 This is what the actual total snow on the ground from the NAM Hires is calling out: One thing for sure, it is going to be very close in both the RDU and CLT area for the bulk of the snow to actually accumulate on the ground. If the model is right, surface temps will not be down into the 20s as occurred on the Tuesday event, but instead will be skimming along just above freezing the majority of the time. We need surface temperatures down into the upper 20s for solid stickage. We should know the answer for what the impact of the surface warming is by 1pm to 4pm this afternoon. You would assume the NAM Hires is factoring in the snow on the ground and cloud cover today in the CLT to RDU corridor. Is it handling it well? We'll find out. That's what I've been saying the past 2 days and sticking with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skbl17 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 assuming some of that initial precip is liquid - anyway, impressive - would GSP consider Heavy Snow Warnings for the catchment area? what is the criteria for that? The criteria is that heavy snow warnings don't exist. They were discontinued in 2008. Anyway, SREF plumes are up at KATL. Good good good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDUBRDU Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 That is horse****. See March 2009. I was visiting south Charlotte during that storm. Impressive rates, but the temp hovered around 32/33 and heavy melting was occurring during the storm. Only ended up with about 3 inches versus what could have been much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 This is not true at all. With heavy rates you can easily get stickage and snow totals surpassing 4 inches. March 2009 is a great example of that as well many other storms. I don't know how this and sun angle and ground temps always come up. If it were 34 and moderate snow yes it's tough but in this case with the QPF and heavy rates there won't be any problems. I agree, this event will prove you shouldn't look at that guidance in the future. I can't tell you how many times the foothills of NC have had huge snows with temps at or above freezing. I can't wait until the day people put that nonsense to rest. With the rates and qpf totals the snow will pile up quickly and STAY piled up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I was visiting south Charlotte during that storm. Impressive rates, but the temp hovered around 32/33 and heavy melting was occurring during the storm. Only ended up with about 3 inches versus what could have been much more. I was in Gastonia and we ended up with 8". CLT was never really under the most intense banding in that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RGEM a tick stronger with the SLP and thus a tick further NW.. I'm looking forward to hearing about the rest of the run. It seems to be the stingiest with the precip and snow of all of the reliable models in the past few runs. Lets see if it ramps things up. Reminder: Let's keep this thread clean of all of the banter, IMBY questions, rants about other outlets, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm using the model center maps, might include some mixing. 13zrapsnowcityclt018.gif RAP, NAM, GFS all ncep models use the SWEM parameter for snow totals, which include sleet/freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm looking forward to hearing about the rest of the run. It seems to be the stingiest with the precip and snow of all of the reliable models in the past few runs. Lets see if it ramps things up. This is usually a good track for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 My call for the Charlotte area (for fun) would be a rain/snow mix at the start, changing to all snow, 2-5 inches. Moderate rates at times. Precip beginning around 6PM, ending around 2AM. Good luck everyone. Here's my updated call for Charlotte (airport). Overnight model runs were good. I'm going with 0.75 total QPF. Starts as a rain/snow mix 5-6PM, transitioning to all snow. Ending 4-5AM. Total accumulation 5-8 inches. Moderate precip rates, but heavy at times. Could mix with sleet during precip lulls as we go towards midnight due to a possible warm layer above 850mb, but the 12z NAM was a little colder on the soundings. This is from the 06z NAM. It's showing a period of strong rising motion (black shading) in the 9PM to midnight timeframe, located in the dendrite growth zone (-12 to -18 C) between 530 and 450mb, along with full saturation (not shown on this image). That trio produces the dendrite snowflakes that pile up due to their lacy structure. We don't get a lot of good snow storms around here. Fully expecting this to be a good one...enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 ^ Would be nice to have a strong High in the Midwest. That's the missing component that's going to end up causing some issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RAP is starting to show some 2 inch liquid lollipops in the upstate at the end of its run with precip still falling.... holy crap..the rap is showing 0.50 liquid in ONE HOUR in the upstate LOL! Also has plenty of areas getting 0.25 per hour..damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Brad P's video update: https://fbcdn-video-l-a.akamaihd.net/hvideo-ak-xpa1/v/t43.1792-2/10949349_833240203415104_2004552625_n.mp4?oh=bc3e83561883f45254c3f6515da66ac8&oe=54EE0C43&__gda__=1424886904_775cff5a73f9baa4c4d05c17f1937867https://fbcdn-video-l-a.akamaihd.net/hvideo-ak-xpa1/v/t43.1792-2/10949349_833240203415104_2004552625_n.mp4?oh=bc3e83561883f45254c3f6515da66ac8&oe=54EE0C43&__gda__=1424886904_775cff5a73f9baa4c4d05c17f1937867 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RAP, NAM, GFS all ncep models use the SWEM parameter for snow totals, which include sleet/freezing rain. Thanks allan! I'm assuming either Snow or Rain here, provided we keep ice nucleation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Well, I like your totals better, but now I see why we're getting different amounts. I think the model center amounts might be overdone. I'm using the maps from NOAA. YOu were also comparig 12z (NOAA) vs 13z (american wx) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 holy crap..the rap is showing 0.50 liquid in ONE HOUR in the upstate LOL! Also has plenty of areas getting 0.25 per hour..damn drives frozen precip down to western columbia metro. impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 well here is the forecast from me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 ^ Would be nice to have a strong High in the Midwest. That's the missing component that's going to end up causing some issues. This should get you smiling...wow.... http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_12/R9_RN_S9_SN_G9_PE_Z9_FR_METE_0000_Raleigh.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 ^ Would be nice to have a strong High in the Midwest. That's the missing component that's going to end up causing some issues. If you had a strong high in the midwest this thing would be going to Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RAP is starting to show some 2 inch liquid lollipops in the upstate at the end of its run with precip still falling.... No words if that verifies for us. It continues to trend wetter. o O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GSP's Latest Thoughts: AS OF 0945 AM...MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP AS WELL AS THE CONSHORT GUIDANCE. BLENDING IN THE CONSHORT POPS BRINGS CATEGORICAL POPS INTO NE GA...FAR WESTERN UPSTATE AND THE SW NC MOUNTAINS ABOUT 19-20Z...GREENVILLE/ASHEVILLE 22-23Z AND CLT AREA 23-00Z. STILL LOOKS LIKE PRECIP OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN BEFORE DYNAMICS QUICKLY COOL THE COLUMN TO AN ALL SNOW SOUNDING. THE ATLANTA 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED WARM NOSE BELOW 700 MB WHICH SUBSTANTIATES THE IDEA THAT THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT BEWTEEN RAIN AND SNOW SETTING UP SOMEWHERE FROM NORTH GA...EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SC UPSTATE. THEREFORE...SNOW AMOUNTS IN COUNTIES LIKE ELBERT...ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. OTHERWISE IT IS ALSO NOTEWORTHY THAT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLASSIC CROSS HAIR SIGNATURES AT PLACES LIKE GSP AND CLT WHICH INDICATE VERY EFFICIENT SNOWFALL RATES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE COMPONENTS TO LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL TOTALS. LOOKS LIKE A WINDOW OF ABOUT 6 HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...ESPECIALLY WHERE BANDING OCCURS. HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNICANT CHANCES TO CURRENT STORM TOTAL SNOW....EXCEPT JUST FOR SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...LOWERD TODAYS MAX TEMPS A LITTLE BASED ON THICKENING CLOUDS. WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE...WITH THE UNDERSTANDIGN THAT SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MAY HAVE LINGERING BLACK ICE THROUGH THE DAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 This should get you smiling...wow.... http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_12/R9_RN_S9_SN_G9_PE_Z9_FR_METE_0000_Raleigh.png That's nice. If the RGEM is a little warm in the mid levels, as has been suggested, that looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 holy crap..the rap is showing 0.50 liquid in ONE HOUR in the upstate LOL! Also has plenty of areas getting 0.25 per hour..damn What is blizzard criteria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Any more ticks NW and this thing will be in VA/WV haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 There's not high enough winds for Blizzard criteria from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The actual 10 AM temperatures as well as dewpoints are quite a bit lower than progged by the 6Z GFS in the ATL-AHN area: ATL temp./DP: prog 37/27. Actual 34/25. PDK: prog 36/27; actual 33/24 MGE: prog 36/26; actual 33/24 AHN: prog 37/29; actual 35/28 GVL: prog 36/29; actual 32/23 However, I will note that the sun is partially shining through thin overcast and has warmed me to 34.3, up about a degree over the last 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 What is blizzard criteria? You'd need 25MPH winds for 4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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