UNCCmetgrad Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Taken verbatim I would literally be able to smell the rain to my south on the NAM. Charlotte and points just to the norhwest get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 As much as this thing looks to be intensifying on guidance, are there any thoughts as to a comma head and a possible deform band forming for NC through tomorrow morning/midday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Thermals for Raleigh at 6z during height of precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wow pack, We stay below, but just barely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 If the NAm is right there will be 2" per hour rates for several hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I would also point out that the convection down south may rob some folks upstream. That simulated radar looks impressive in S. GA and Fla. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 850s warmed up a lot recently...a little worrying. This is a dynamic storm. This is expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I would also point out that the convection down south may rob some folks upstream. That simulated radar looks impressive in S. GA and Fla. This is waht I was afraid of. When I saw in the accuweather video that S GA may have severe Thunderstorms, it just eats up moisture for N GA and the Upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I would also point out that the convection down south may rob some folks upstream. That simulated radar looks impressive in S. GA and Fla. With the orientation of the convection, if anything, it would help us with moisture upstream versus robbing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wow pack, We stay below, but just barely After 6z we do get really close but still below freezing all the way down. On the 6z NAM 850's did rise above 0 so this run was colder. I think we mix some with sleet, we always do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 With the orientation of the convection, if anything, it would help us with moisture upstream versus robbing us. Do you mind explaining that? I did not know that could occur. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Larry, is any of the snowfall you received yesterday still around? Got a few patches around the yard here & there, but I'd hardly call it a "snowpack". Just a little. Also, some roofs still are white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 After 6z we do get really close but still below freezing all the way down. On the 6z NAM 850's did rise above 0 so this run was colder. I think we mix some with sleet, we always do. Raleigh does go above freezing briefly at 850, but just ever so slightly. With .7C at 850 3 hours later but most precip gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I would also point out that the convection down south may rob some folks upstream. That simulated radar looks impressive in S. GA and Fla. Just because there is convection present doesn't necessarily mean it will cut precip totals downstream. Orientation of the convection relative to the main storm is important. The main example of convection disrupting inflow are 1. convection lines up along the gulf coast in an east to west line or, 2. the line of convection races out ahead of the main storm and associated precipitation field. Not to say it definitely won't happen, I'm not seeing anything to raise alarm bells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Raleigh does go above freezing briefly at 850, but just ever so slightly. With .7C at 850 3 hours later but most precip gone. ifvnifunvifunv.PNG Yeah, we get less than a .1" QPF after 9z, I would imagine as rates diminish we flip to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RAP is showing foot+ totals in southern spartanburg county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raine1212 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 My temp went from a high of 50 today to 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 12z RAP has 15" totals across i-85 from Greenville to Charlotte.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 12z RAP has 15" totals across i-85 from Greenville to Charlotte.. Maybe not quite that much, but I agree that it's very significant and approaching one foot: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lettucesnow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Here comes that cloud cover!! We need it to come in quickly and not allow the sun to warm the ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 That's a nice banding signature over NW Wake. Yes please! I seem to be in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 WRAL is really really worried about getting a mix in wake and the snow melting on impact... 1-4 inches with 6-8 possible This is what the actual total snow on the ground from the NAM Hires is calling out: One thing for sure, it is going to be very close in both the RDU and CLT area for the bulk of the snow to actually accumulate on the ground. If the model is right, surface temps will not be down into the 20s as occurred on the Tuesday event, but instead will be skimming along just above freezing the majority of the time. We need surface temperatures down into the upper 20s for solid stickage. We should know the answer for what the impact of the surface warming is by 1pm to 4pm this afternoon. You would assume the NAM Hires is factoring in the snow on the ground and cloud cover today in the CLT to RDU corridor. Is it handling it well? We'll find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Maybe not quite that much, but I agree that it's very significant and approaching one foot: I'm using the model center maps, might include some mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 SREF Plume look much better for North GA Gainseville 6 plus with a nice cluster around 8 Rome 6 plus with a nice cluster around 10 KATL even has a mean of 2 inches. This coming way up from yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Is that a comma cloud already forming in conjunction with the 850mb low over Dallas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RAP is starting to show some 2 inch liquid lollipops in the upstate at the end of its run with precip still falling.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 This is what the actual total snow on the ground from the NAM Hires is calling out: One thing for sure, it is going to be very close in both the RDU and CLT area for the bulk of the snow to actually accumulate on the ground. If the model is right, surface temps will not be down into the 20s as occurred on the Tuesday event, but instead will be skimming along just above freezing the majority of the time. We need surface temperatures down into the upper 20s for solid stickage. That is horse****. See March 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm using the model center maps, might include some mixing. Well, I like your totals better, but now I see why we're getting different amounts. I think the model center amounts might be overdone. I'm using the maps from NOAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 This is what the actual total snow on the ground from the NAM Hires is calling out: One thing for sure, it is going to be very close in both the RDU and CLT area for the bulk of the snow to actually accumulate on the ground. If the model is right, surface temps will not be down into the 20s as occurred on the Tuesday event, but instead will be skimming along just above freezing the majority of the time. We need surface temperatures down into the upper 20s for solid stickage. We should know the answer for what the impact of the surface warming is by 1pm to 4pm this afternoon. You would assume the NAM Hires is factoring in the snow on the ground and cloud cover today in the CLT to RDU corridor. Is it handling it well? We'll find out. This is not true at all. With heavy rates you can easily get stickage and snow totals surpassing 4 inches. March 2009 is a great example of that as well many other storms. I don't know how this and sun angle and ground temps always come up. If it were 34 and moderate snow yes it's tough but in this case with the QPF and heavy rates there won't be any problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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