packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 12km NAM looks a hair north from 6z through 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm still sticking with my 6 to 10 for randolph county, but I may bump to 8 to 12 latter today. It's highly likely some where in this county someone gets 12 inches. My best guess is southeast side Asheboro to ulah to Seagrove. I think all of us from RDU to GSO are gonna get creamed. I am all in for 10+ at this point. QPF just keeps ramping up as this thing explodes in the Gulf. Having the event yesterday lay down a little bit of snowpack to put ground temps nice and cold will help too. I'm greedy, want me some thundersnow tonight! (don't ask for much do I?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 12km NAM looks a hair north from 6z through 15. Sweet! Bring on the sleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm not buying the SREF.. Too much noise. The members are spaced evenly for RDU from 2 inches to 13. Not a tight cluster at all. Can't grasp it The SREF is an odd tool. The mean seems to have some predictive prowess but when you look at the individual members it seems insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The SREF for KHKY is quite interesting. The mean is around 7.5 inches, and yet the mean is not really indicative of any of the likely possibilities. There are two clusters of members, one centered just below 5 inches, and the other centered just above 10 inches. In my opinion, either of those scenarios is more likely for KHKY than is the mean total of 7.5. This is a case of where the mean is not typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Sweet! Bring on the sleet! 850's are colder though, and it's just as wet as previous run through 18. Nice run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 12km NAM looks a hair north from 6z through 15. Looks pretty much the same to me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The NAM looks like it initialized the low pressure in the correct spot. Can someone confirm that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Sweet! Bring on the sleet! Well now that we have a low in the gulf we can see how the nam is handling this and if its over amped or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The RAP continues to show impressive QPF totals. Here's the 11Z run total precipitation out to 18 hours: This RAP map has the low 50 miles NW of the Euro/GFS. Based on other reports that the low is currently south of the progged position in the GOM, I'm not buying this low position. I say shift it SE or S 50 miles (tracking near Brunswick). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I just ran some errands around town and all seems normal in Cartersville. The grocery store had everything I wanted with no people. Currently 29 with that snow look in the clouds. Same here, we just got back from a store run in NE Cherokee County. Fully stocked store, few shoppers. The birds are super busy shoring themselves up though! It may be that people up here already have stuff from the other two recent events over the last week. We didn't need much ourselves. Seeing all the blue sky here in the upstate this morning is a bit disappointing but given the dynamics of this system I don't think it's particularly big deal at this point. Satellite seems to indicate thicker clouds spreading across GA at the moment so I would expect it to be cloudy in the next couple of hours. That would be correct. Thin cloud layer right when the sun rose, but now thickening up considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Sweet! Bring on the sleet! LOL...it's a touch colder at 850 than 6z, SLP was a little stronger once off the coast, it gets 1.25" QPF back to the triad, we are 1.5" QPF...I think we are all snow this run, but need to check. OMG...996 off HAT, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 it's inreal how close it is on the nam in some areas. it too is showing more mid level cooling thanks to heavy precip/dynamics as well. here is athens during the heart of it. when you consider that there will be very intense rates, it doesn't get any closer than that. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 0 1000 80 SFC 983 219 2.1 1.5 96 0.6 1.8 77 7 276.6 277.4 275.9 288.5 4.34 2 950 494 0.4 0.2 99 0.2 0.3 79 19 277.6 278.2 276.0 288.8 4.08 3 900 925 -0.4 -0.6 98 0.2 -0.5 92 20 281.1 281.8 277.9 292.4 4.06 4 850 1383 0.2 0.2 100 0.0 0.3 94 12 286.4 287.2 281.1 299.4 4.57 5 800 1868 -0.1 -0.4 98 0.3 -0.3 173 16 291.0 291.8 283.2 304.5 4.65 6 750 2386 -0.1 -0.1 100 0.0 -0.1 209 31 296.4 297.4 285.8 311.4 5.05 7 700 2939 -0.7 -0.8 99 0.2 -0.8 206 52 301.7 302.7 287.8 317.2 5.14 8 650 3530 -1.9 -2.0 99 0.1 -2.0 215 67 306.8 307.8 289.5 322.4 5.08 9 600 4166 -4.3 -4.4 99 0.1 -4.4 221 76 311.1 312.0 290.4 325.5 4.59 10 550 4850 -7.6 -7.7 99 0.2 -7.7 229 76 315.1 315.9 291.0 327 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The NAM saw the 750-800mb warm nose with the last storm ahead of time and the soundings from this run could prove to be very useful. I would check but just on my phone currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 NAM is 5 degrees colder at the surface at 18z compared to uesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Same here, we just got back from a store run in NE Cherokee County. Fully stocked store, few shoppers. The birds are super busy shoring themselves up though! It may be that people up here already have stuff from the other two recent events over the last week. We didn't need much ourselves. I remember in January 2011 when we had to walk to the store because roads had half a foot of snow on them haha. Looks like PDK is still hanging a bit below freezing, slightly below forecast IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 NAM is all snow for RDU through 8z then at 9z it's barely all snow, but the heavy precip has ended by that time. So it looks like by 8z 1.25" of QPF has fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 This RAP map has the low 50 miles NW of the Euro/GFS. Based on other reports that the low is currently south of the progged position in the GOM, I'm not buying this low position. I say shift it SE or S 50 miles (tracking near Brunswick). That would make sense. I believe Robert and others have talked about that model having a northwest bias but that may have been mainly in the upper level features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 NAM is 5 degrees colder at the surface at 18z compared to uesterday tell that snowpack from yesterday thank you when you step outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Geeze the nam is insane lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 15" of snow verbatim on the NAm for northern Wake and FRanklin County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Larry, is any of the snowfall you received yesterday still around? Got a few patches around the yard here & there, but I'd hardly call it a "snowpack". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm up at pti today. Clouds are here and thickening up fast enough to scour sun. Heavy milky layer. Should be over to rdu and rwi in next hour or 2. This will really help out everyone to keep the sun from beaming the ground today and limit solar insulation. MBY is in good shape but the guys to my se can use all the help they can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 LOL...it's a touch colder at 850 than 6z, SLP was a little stronger once off the coast, it gets 1.25" QPF back to the triad, we are 1.5" QPF...I think we are all snow this run, but need to check. OMG...996 off HAT, wow. Pack I feel like it's almost a little warmer for RDU's area. On the 6z at 27 you can see there's a cad like nose of 850s that you can see the nam dipping through eastern nc including rdu whereas at 21 on 12z you can see that nose is gone and the 850 line in that area is up closer to the nc and va border in the Eastern areas. Regardless it is most definitely wetter for the northwestern areas of nc mountains and southern va as it advects the .25 area of qpf right over our areas. This is most likely due to the nam progging it at 996 plus picking up on more moisture on the northwest side, not necessarily a different placement of the lowEdit: I do have to say that the insane rates will compensate for any sketchiness of the 850s and it will be a complete crush job for RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Yikes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Congrats a lot of folks except the ATL area, classic warm nose right over us, more NW and NE. Maybe we can get some sleet..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Pack I feel like it's almost a little warmer for RDU's area. On the 6z at 27 you can see there's a cad like nose of 850s that you can see the nam dipping through eastern nc including rdu whereas at 21 on 12z you can see that nose is gone and the 850 line in that area is up closer to the nc and va border in the Eastern areas. Regardless it is most definitely wetter for the northwestern areas of nc mountains and southern va as it advects the .25 area of qpf right over our areas. This is most likely due to the nam progging it at 996 plus picking up on more moisture on the northwest side, not necessarily a different placement of the low Edit: I do have to say that the insane rates will compensate for any sketchiness of the 850s and it will be a complete crush job for RDU Definitely colder than 6z run. Sorry, can't post any attachments on this site, but yes it never get's 850's below 0 where the 6z run did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Yikes... That's a nice banding signature over NW Wake. Yes please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Definitely colder than 6z run. With such a strong low that close to the coast its almost always bad for us east of 95. Hoping somehow we can manage enough cold air to get all snow but I dunno if we can do that with a 996 right off hatteras. Hoping it is still over amping things a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 850s warmed up a lot recently...a little worrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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