FLO Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The Low looks a lot more S than forecast. Will this help those farther South? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 This is their forecast from this morning...have to admit I'd be pretty happy with 3.5" here in Dunwoody: I'm hoping for a solid 3 as well. Trying not to get giddy over the WPC 75% & 0z Euro clown maps that had me at 5" & 6" respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 One more jump like this one and euro wouldn't be too far off from the wetter models. Keep expecting the SREF to back off the QPF but it's actually going up and a tick colder for our area. Latest SREG has 1.25" for all of Wake. The previous runs were right around an 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Here you go... Edit: EuroWx has GSO with 11:1 to ratios, RDU with 10:1. I'm having trouble figuring out how to post the maps, but it looks like the euro precip totals moved about 50 miles or so northwest when comparing this to the same map from 12z. One more shift like that and it's totals would be similar to the wetter models for at least the portion of the state shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm having trouble figuring out how to post the maps, but it looks like the euro precip totals moved about 50 miles or so northwest when comparing this to the same map from 12z. One more shift like that and it's totals would be similar to the wetter models for at least the portion of the state shown. That's about right, it's ticked NW about 25-50 miles the past 2-3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Latest from RAH... Where did you get this pack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Someone on another forum mentioned the upper level low went 100 miles south of forecast...haven't checked to see how accurate this claim is, but if its true, that's pretty significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Where did you get this pack? Here you go... http://www.weather.gov/rah/72-hrPrecipitationForecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Here we go folks! 1008 SLP southwest of New Orleans, in the GoM. My feeling is this is the one we thought we might get with the pattern changes a few weeks back. Hang on to your hats! It looks like a big hit for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Someone on another forum mentioned the upper level low went 100 miles south of forecast...haven't checked to see how accurate this claim is, but if its true, that's pretty significant. LP looks like it may be a hair or 2 south, but it should track ENE thru south GA..but we'll see. Would certainly give snow lovers some hope if it tracks further south than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Lord have mercy at the latest HRR... It's an absolute jackpot cream job for Northern GA and Upstate SC... That's a ridiculous look. If we don't have any temp issues north of Atlanta, that looks like record snow totals with that look. Notice the darker reds......that looks like serious convective rates....could see some thunder snow under those returns if they were to indeed verify. - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I am a little worried that the HRR does not show a changeover in the upstate until between 8 and 9pm. Hopefully there is not a thicker boundary layer than what other modeling has shown. The NAM show's only a near surface boundary layer that quickly gets scoured when precip picks up. I think this is a HRR warm bias at play, as it also has some of the southern escarpment and a large part of Central NC getting above 50 degree's today, but it's something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I am a little worried that the HRR does not show a changeover in the upstate until between 8 and 9pm. Hopefully there is not a thicker boundary layer than what other modeling has shown. The NAM show's only a near surface boundary layer that quickly gets scoured when precip picks up. I think this is a HRR warm bias at play, as it also has some of the southern escarpment and a large part of Central NC getting above 50 degree's today, but it's something to keep an eye on. Don't worry too much about the temp profile on the HRRR that far out. You should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Word is the low formed 100 miles south of most guidance. Euro for the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Here you go... http://www.weather.gov/rah/72-hrPrecipitationForecasts Thanks I was looking forever...not exactly the most friendly website in the world, haha. Appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I am a little worried that the HRR does not show a changeover in the upstate until between 8 and 9pm. Hopefully there is not a thicker boundary layer than what other modeling has shown. The NAM show's only a near surface boundary layer that quickly gets scoured when precip picks up. I think this is a HRR warm bias at play, as it also has some of the southern escarpment and a large part of Central NC getting above 50 degree's today, but it's something to keep an eye on. yeah i wouldn't be using it as any basis for temps. it has a terrible warm bias. Yesterday it showed temps getting to 45 when they never got above 33. It was similarly off during the ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I am a little worried that the HRR does not show a changeover in the upstate until between 8 and 9pm. Hopefully there is not a thicker boundary layer than what other modeling has shown. The NAM show's only a near surface boundary layer that quickly gets scoured when precip picks up. I think this is a HRR warm bias at play, as it also has some of the southern escarpment and a large part of Central NC getting above 50 degree's today, but it's something to keep an eye on. I would think the dynamic cooling of this event will be quick and aggressive to change over sooner than that. Much heavier precip should squash that warm layer....I hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 That's a ridiculous look. If we don't have any temp issues north of Atlanta, that looks like record snow totals with that look. Notice the darker reds......that looks like serious convective rates....could see some thunder snow under those returns if they were to indeed verify. - Buck Some people north of Atlanta are gonna get a solid 6"+ with close to an inch liquid equivalent. My bet's on HW 369 in Forsyth/Cherokee seeing those higher amounts, with the more immediate metro seeing somewhat less, but at the very least most of the northern metro should see some decent rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm still sticking with my 6 to 10 for randolph county, but I may bump to 8 to 12 latter today. It's highly likely some where in this county someone gets 12 inches. My best guess is southeast side Asheboro to ulah to Seagrove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Word is the low formed 100 miles south of most guidance. Euro for the win. If anything it's stronger, when compared to the 6z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Before everyone gets too giddy, I have noticed the HRRR has a tendency to overdo snow qpfs. Also, DFW and NE Texas have had mostly a sleet storm, was supposed to be mostly snow. Also, the 12z WSI RPM is really far north with the snow. Lets see what the NAM and other 12Z models do before declaring this a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Current wet bulb temps....m for GA and AL the rain snow line should setup just north of this line if I had to guess gun to head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Word is the low formed 100 miles south of most guidance. Euro for the win. Its placed nicely in the GoM. Its not going to matter once it roars up through Savannah to Hatteras anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Love the bold and underlined part. This should also help upstream. Birmingham MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TIME STAMP...LAST POINT...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXTREMELY HEAVY...CONVECTIVE INSOME CASES...SO THE DYNAMICAL PROCESSES WILL BE AMPED SIGNIFICANTLYCOMPARED TO OUR TYPICAL WINTER EVENTS. KEEP THIS IN MIND...THATCOOLING THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR QUICKLY AND IT WILL LIKELY MODIFY ANYFORECAST SOUNDINGS PROJECTED. USING FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL BE AVERY DANGEROUS PROPOSITION FROM HERE FORWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Holy crap at the SREF plumes. Over 8.5" in the Triad area! BOOM!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I just ran some errands around town and all seems normal in Cartersville. The grocery store had everything I wanted with no people. Currently 29 with that snow look in the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 NWS Atlanta just said they anticipate 5:1 ratios on the south side of Atlanta, and 7:1 to 8:1 on the north side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm not buying the SREF.. Too much noise. The members are spaced evenly for RDU from 2 inches to 13. Not a tight cluster at all. Can't grasp it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The RAP continues to show impressive QPF totals. Here's the 11Z run total precipitation out to 18 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Will the low be able to tap into some more gom moisture now and advect itt northwestward since it is exclusively over water? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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