WXinCanton Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Most are talking about wed /thurs storm, with all the excitement , correct? What about the Tues " threat" ? Is nam only one showing that? It really is confusing with 2 threats that close, not even including Monday I think we need a thread for Tuesday morning threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I think the 06z GEFS spaghetti had a 990mb low off of Wilmington Yea that must of been the panel you posted in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Most are talking about wed /thurs storm, with all the excitement , correct? What about the Tues " threat" ? Is nam only one showing that? It really is confusing with 2 threats that close, not even including Monday Tuesday is cold chasing moisture and it's a very quick event if it happens, that's probably why most are focused on a possible big dog Thurs. Also gotta keep in mind the location of some posters and why they ignore some systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Remember back in the day when we would be buying a snow shovel based on this look at day 4... Has much really changed? We haven't had this look all winter. I'm psyched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 CMC is a bit slower than NAM as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Has much really changed? We haven't had this look all winter. I'm psyched. That's a good point, we haven't had a true southern h5 low that tracks across the country, most have been sheared out, this one is teetering on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 canadian is a heck of a good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 Regarding the Wed/Thursday system: To give a sense of the importance of keeping the energy from escaping into the PJ, here is a sketch showing a weaking STJ wave as it is ejecting its energy into the PJ (sheared out) and the resulting low placement and strength, and where there could be some wintry wx along the northern edge of the precip. Here is what we could see if the s/w retains most of its energy and begins to tilt its axis neutral. Small changes but big differences on the surface. Anything in between this is fair game IMO. You'll see the models within the range of possibilities until we're within 48 hrs more than likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 To give a sense of the importance of keeping the energy from escaping into the PJ, here is a sketch showing a weaking STJ wave as it is ejecting its energy into the PJ (sheared out) and the resulting low placement and strength, and where there could be some wintry wx along the northern edge of the precip. Here is what we could see if the s/w retains most of its energy and begins to tilt its axis neutral. Small changes but big differences on the surface. Your crude 4th grade drawing in MS Paint really sums up this entire system I really wanna see if the Euro starts orienting our energy back before TX better vs. the 00z run...that will really have me believing the trends. If that happens I think we can pretty much lock it in that from GA to the Carolinas there will be some big wintry fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase2211 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I'm still wondering what is going to happen monday Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 The only time I like to see higher heights over the SE is when something like this approaches, meaning the s/w is more neutrally tiltled and the resulting sfc low is further north. GEFS definitely trended to this in the average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Ideally if we could keep that vort cut off, we could get one of those march bowling ball types. Just wishcasting, but if the northern stream can have less impact on it, that's much more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 NAM Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Love the wxcaster graphs, here's a link for you guys and this one shows 84 hours like above , just centered on Charlotte, http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Has much really changed? We haven't had this look all winter. I'm psyched. Agree this still looks to be the best chance at a pure snowstorm for the SE we have seen all year at this range......of course there are many things that can change and go wrong but as of right now I see a setup that almost always brings the goods, by tomorrow afternoon this board will be going nuts over the Thurs storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Here is the link for Wxcaster for all areas: Find your site http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.htm Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 Love the wxcaster graphs, here's a link for you guys and this one shows 84 hours like above , just centered on Charlotte, http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GSP Looks like an incoming I-85 special right now. Wished the dgex ran at 12z for the east to see the outcome on that one. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The individual members on the GEFS are looking pretty darn amazing around I-20. There is a Feb. 2010 feel to it around here in KCAE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The 12z NAVGEM is still a hit for NC/Upstate SC (too warm elsewhere, it seems). The UKMET looks a little better than last night from the limited maps I can see (could be wrong). The 12z JMA looks good out to hr 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artie Fufkin Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 NAMSent from my iPhone Check please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Jesus, the NAM can't nail a forecast 24hrs out. Why post its 84hr snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The only time I like to see higher heights over the SE is when something like this approaches, meaning the s/w is more neutrally tiltled and the resulting sfc low is further north. GEFS definitely trended to this in the average.the 5h vort goes over n ga, the surface low shone north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Check please! I assume that is for the NAM sum of the TUE AM and WED PM events. Even if you cut these amounts in half (probably prudent for the usually too wet NAM) you're still looking at potential for near half a foot for N AL/N GA, which obviously would still be huge for this area. But, it is the NAM lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 The 12z NAVGEM is still a hit for NC/Upstate SC (too warm elsewhere, it seems). The UKMET looks a little better than last night from the limited maps I can see (could be wrong). The 12z JMA looks good out to hr 84. navgem has this leading packet of energy right in front of the s/w that keeps sfc low from pulling in more. Otherwise this is a good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Jesus, the NAM can't nail a forecast 24hrs out. Why post its 84hr snow map? Yeah, it's pretty pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I like the look of the euro at 54hr with respect to the southwest low.... definitely stronger/heading for a more neutral tilt with more ridging out in front. let's see where she goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Jesus, the NAM can't nail a forecast 24hrs out. Why post its 84hr snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Not sure the Euro could look better through 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Euro looks like it took a step in the right direction for Thurs. On my phone so can't toggle well but looks better to my eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 I assume that is for the NAM sum of the TUE AM and WED PM events. Even if you cut these amounts in half (probably prudent for the usually too wet NAM) you're still looking at potential for near half a foot for N AL/N GA, which obviously would still be huge for this area. But, it is the NAM lol. There is the 24 hr snow totals prior to the thursday event: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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