NCSNOW Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 What was the ukie qpf at 12z. I know the 850 line never got futher west than Laurinburg to Elizabeth City line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skbl17 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 CMC is a fantastic run for metro Atlanta, with sub-freezing 850s south of I-20 and significant precip. Clown maps indicate large swaths of 7-9" (even though it's likely that we don't see quite that much). Wow... Also liking the tick south on the UKMET. Now to wait for the 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 For NC, the canadian brought the precip field further north while maintaining the same low position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 4:52 AM, ILMRoss said: Does anyone think there could be a tongue of overrunning precip that shoots out a few hours before the models predict? I know that was discussed a lot last week. yes..the old finger of snow should be poking at someone i would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 4:50 AM, Weatherkid#27 said: CMC is a really good run for the ATL weenies The UKMET track honestly does not look bad for them at all but its too warm at 850, it is colder than the 12Z run though, this run does give them about 1 inch of snow late Wednesday night, the previous run gave them nothing...I don't have much experience using the UKIE on borderline scenarios like this in the south so I cannot say if it could be running a tad warmer than reality, I'd think ATL would snow on that track though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 GGEM snow total. A decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 4:57 AM, Wow said: For NC, the canadian brought the precip field further north while maintaining the same low position. I remember on Allan's old site (I think?... or was it HKY WX's?) he plotted the mean 6"+ snowfall low locations for RDU and HKY and they generally were surprisingly far offshore and not too different than what we're looking at now. --- Anyways, the 00z GEFS definitely ticked NW, so that's a good sign for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 5:00 AM, superjames1992 said: Anyways, the 00z GEFS definitely ticked NW, so that's a good sign for most of us. Aside from just wanting a massive hit, it's hard not to like the GFS and Euro Ensemble Means for Charlotte, Greensboro, Raleigh areas (just to name a few). The GFS Ens Mean is just a tad southeast of the Euro Ens Mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 5:00 AM, superjames1992 said: I remember on Allan's old site (I think?... or was it HKY WX's?) he plotted the mean 6"+ snowfall low locations for RDU and HKY and they generally were surprisingly far offshore and not too different than what we're looking at now. --- Anyways, the 00z GEFS definitely ticked NW, so that's a good sign for most of us. I think we've both done a study on the climo tracks for snow and ice. Allan still has his somewhere on the web. I think mine was a thread either here or back on easternwx. The euro track is pretty good for both locations. Hickory snow track is from the northern gulf, crossing over the florida panhandle and up the coast just offshore. Raleigh's is from the northern gulf, crossing over northern fl peninsula and then up the coast about 50-100 miles offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The GFS Ensemble members look very good for the Charlotte to Raleigh corridor...very good agreement among the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 1223 AM Tues From WPC ***UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST******SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO***PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF MEAN/00Z UKMETCONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN LIMITED CONFIDENCETHURSDAYA CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO APRONOUNCED OPEN TROUGH ALOFT AS IT APPROACHES TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STALLEDFRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TOCROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND OVER THE ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS REMAINS MORE SUPPRESSED AND FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELGUIDANCE IN RESPECT TO ITS PRESSURES AND QPF, WHILE THE NAM IS TOODEEP AT BOTH 700MB AND 500MB WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. RIGHT NOW, THEECMWF MEAN HAS THE BEST POSITION FOR THE SURFACE LOW, AND THE 00ZUKMET IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 4:57 AM, Wow said: For NC, the canadian brought the precip field further north while maintaining the same low position. That sounds like good news. The Canadian has performed well in a LOT of Carolina Storms (or at least close enough, etc.). Do you have a colored graphic? Thanks JWow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 HAMMER TIME!! Colder at 2m and 850...I-20 special from what I can tell through 6z thur...SLP is a bit further south, but not by much...colder run for MANY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 00z European is slightly weaker and further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 6:03 AM, deltadog03 said: HAMMER TIME!! Colder at 2m and 850...I-20 special from what I can tell through 6z thur...SLP is a bit further south, but not by much...colder run for MANY yeah this is a much better run for north, parts of central ga and sc. 0c 850 is way down to central ga. Less precip overall but I'm sure many will take it if it means all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 6:03 AM, deltadog03 said: HAMMER TIME!! Colder at 2m and 850...I-20 special from what I can tell through 6z thur...SLP is a bit further south, but not by much...colder run for MANY Great to see. Hopefully the qpf stays up. I want to see you guys get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 And now the Euro is on the S/E side of guidance. What a difference a day makes, and strange to see from the Euro. Definitely a better run for AL/GA/SC. NC is 2-4" for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 6:03 AM, deltadog03 said: HAMMER TIME!! Colder at 2m and 850...I-20 special from what I can tell through 6z thur...SLP is a bit further south, but not by much...colder run for MANY Does it get down to you, and El K in Perry? Been needing a good hammer in the central for years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 How long did the low stay closed? Did it open quicker than before? Just curious because sometimes they stay closed longer than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 6:10 AM, superjames1992 said: And now the Euro is on the S/E side of guidance. What a difference a day makes, and strange to see from the Euro. Definitely a better run for AL/GA/SC. NC is 2-4" for the most part. looks like a better run for NC IMO, outside of the mountains RDU Is 5", 12z had 4" Widespread 10-11" east of 1-95 (kinda like the 18z NAM)...really jackpots eastern NC. Harnett County south still gets 7-8" It's actually not as heavy as the 12z was for NW GA border just west of ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 6:16 AM, Jon said: looks like a better run for NC IMO, outside of the mountains RDU Is 5", 12z had 4" Widespread 10-11" east of 1-95 (kinda like the 18z NAM)...really jackpots eastern NC. Harnett County south still gets 7-8" It's actually not as heavy as the 12z was for NW GA border just west of ATL. How is the Euro looking for the Upstate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 6:16 AM, Jon said: looks like a better run for NC IMO, outside of the mountains RDU Is 5", 12z had 4" Widespread 10-11" east of 1-95 (kinda like the 18z NAM)...really jackpots eastern NC. Harnett County south still gets 7-8" It's actually not as heavy as the 12z was for NW GA border just west of ATL. Jon, RDU's 5" is really only 3" from the 2/25 storm as the Euro inexplicably drops 2" at RDU tomorrow. It also drops 2-4" of snow across much of SE NC, which makes it look heavier than it is there. For 24-hr totals from the 2/25-26 storm alone, I am getting: CLT: 3" GSO: 2" RDU: 3" Rockingham: 5" PGV: 7" (Packbacker's jackpot!) Looks like the max of 6-8" runs from SE of Fayetteville up through and just NE of PGV. I might be making too much over small changes, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 6:17 AM, Bsudweather said: How is the Euro looking for the Upstate? Central upstate, if that's a thing, is 5-6"...CAE is around 2-4", western upstate is around 5-6" and NE upstate is 4-8" with higher totals near NC border. Biggest change from 12z is involving CAE going from T-1" to 2-4" Edit: sorry this is total snowfall through Thursday unless you get in on any action tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 6:13 AM, sparklecity said: How long did the low stay closed? Did it open quicker than before? Just curious because sometimes they stay closed longer than modeled. The wave was very similar. These are mainly just wobbles in the Euro model runs IMO. The uncertainty cone has tightened for sure over the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 6:08 AM, Lookout said: yeah this is a much better run for north, parts of central ga and sc. 0c 850 is way down to central ga. Less precip overall but I'm sure many will take it if it means all snow. yes sir! I don't see my area getting any snow, but we are pretty close...Great run for yall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 6:13 AM, dsaur said: Does it get down to you, and El K in Perry? Been needing a good hammer in the central for years now. nope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 6:21 AM, superjames1992 said: Jon, RDU's 5" is really only 3" from the 2/25 storm as the Euro inexplicably drops 2" at RDU tomorrow. It also drops 2-4" of snow across much of SE NC, which makes it look heavier than it is there. Oh yeah, I forgot about that trend of a snowstorm we have tomorrow...geez... oh well, 24 hour snowfall at 72hrs has widespread 6-7" east of I-95 and 4-5" RDU south through Harnett to the SC border. There. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Last update for the night! Thanks everyone for all the new likes. See yall in the am. I see no reason to change the map right now. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 6:23 AM, Jon said: Oh yeah, I forgot about that trend of a snowstorm we have tomorrow...geez... oh well, 24 hour snowfall at 72hrs has widespread 6-7" east of I-95 and 4-5" RDU south through Harnett to the SC border. There. haha I think it's high time to ride the NAM to the glory hole! And, also, this isn't in the Euro's wheelhouse anymore or something... But, seriously, if the worst snowfall (aside from the hopefully lost GFS) still shows 2-3", I guess that says something. --- BTW, Chris/Delta, I think your call map looks pretty good at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 6:25 AM, superjames1992 said: I think it's high time to ride the NAM to the glory hole! And, also, this isn't in the Euro's wheelhouse anymore or something... But, seriously, if the worst snowfall (aside from the hopefully lost GFS) still shows 2-3", I guess that says something. --- BTW, Chris/Delta, I think your call map looks pretty good at this point. Thanks bud! I hope it climbs the coast a bit for yall, but I just don't at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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