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Feb 25-26 Discussion/pbp

Wow

By Wow,
in Southeastern States

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extremewx52

extremewx52

Posted
Posted

I'm traveling to Atlanta on Wednesday night, so this storm has certainly piqued my interest. Can't decide if I want the northern PV anomaly to crush this storm and keep it south of Atlanta to make my trip easier, or if I want to drive right into the heart of 1/4 mile ripping snow.  Being from Indiana, the snow doesn't worry me, it's the other idiots on the road. There are plenty of people up here who drive in it 5 months out of the year and don't know what they are doing, I imagine it is probably worse down there where it rarely snows. 

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lilj4425

lilj4425

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  On 2/24/2015 at 12:19 AM, superjames1992 said:

Where is this south precip shift? There is zero evidence of it aside from one GFS run. The Euro and UKMET continue to spread precip further northwards on each successive run, even with a fairly constant track. The precip field is expanding, if anything.

Yep. The NAM is doing the same thing.

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

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  On 2/24/2015 at 12:19 AM, superjames1992 said:

Where is this south precip shift? There is zero evidence of it aside from one GFS run. The Euro and UKMET continue to spread precip further northwards on each successive run, even with a fairly constant track. The precip field is expanding, if anything.

add the 18z navgem, nam, and sref. I think the jma too. I'm also forgetting the euro control run.
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weatherfide

weatherfide

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  On 2/24/2015 at 12:18 AM, extremewx52 said:

I'm traveling to Atlanta on Wednesday night, so this storm has certainly piqued my interest. Can't decide if I want the northern PV anomaly to crush this storm and keep it south of Atlanta to make my trip easier, or if I want to drive right into the heart of 1/4 mile ripping snow.  Being from Indiana, the snow doesn't worry me, it's the other idiots on the road. There are plenty of people up here who drive in it 5 months out of the year and don't know what they are doing, I imagine it is probably worse down there where it rarely snows. 

Don't worry, the city will be practically deserted if there is 1/4 mile visibility snow. You and the other snow geese will be the only ones on the roads.

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Bsudweather

Bsudweather

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  On 2/23/2015 at 11:47 PM, lilj4425 said:

For me it's not the soil temps but air temps I am worried about. Don't see how it's gonna be snow and lower 30's just a few hours after mid 40's.

I can tell you I was in the superstorm of march 93 here in the upstate, and it was in the 60s here and within a matter of Hours we had 8" on the ground! ULLs has minds of their own, and they make their own cold air. So temps would be my least worries with this.
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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

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  On 2/23/2015 at 11:56 PM, DueUCMe said:

From Van Denton Fox 8 Met in High Point, NC...

 

2 Potentials for some snow. (Share the graphic with CAUTION).

#1. Tuesday we could see a few flurries, possibly snow showers as a disturbance moves to our south. Best chance late morning. Better chances near SC/NC line, Mtns and at the coast. Partial clearing by tomorrow afternoon.

#2. The European model is aggressive with snow for us on Wednesday night late and Thursday morning. Other models are not so favorable for a good snow. The graphic I am posting was provided by the WPC (Weather Prediction Center). The WPC is part of NOAA just like the SPC (Storm Prediction Center for Severe Weather) and TPC (Tropical Prediction Center). I am actually surprised they are this aggressive with the uncertainty in the models. This is basically putting all of ones faith in one model. Which can be dangerous.

We will have a much better idea on amounts by Tuesday evening. The track will play a very important role.

 

Van is the man. But only one model, come on Van. There,s only one model that doesn't show snow, 18z gfs op.

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Hvward

Hvward

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  On 2/24/2015 at 12:18 AM, extremewx52 said:

I'm traveling to Atlanta on Wednesday night, so this storm has certainly piqued my interest. Can't decide if I want the northern PV anomaly to crush this storm and keep it south of Atlanta to make my trip easier, or if I want to drive right into the heart of 1/4 mile ripping snow.  Being from Indiana, the snow doesn't worry me, it's the other idiots on the road. There are plenty of people up here who drive in it 5 months out of the year and don't know what they are doing, I imagine it is probably worse down there where it rarely snows. 

 

Did you see Snowjam 14'?  If you get stuck though I heard Chipper Jones shows up on a snow mobile to rescue you.

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extremewx52

extremewx52

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  On 2/24/2015 at 12:26 AM, Hvward said:

Did you see Snowjam 14'?  If you get stuck though I heard Chipper Jones shows up on a snow mobile to rescue you.

 

 

  On 2/24/2015 at 12:21 AM, weatherfide said:

Don't worry, the city will be practically deserted if there is 1/4 mile visibility snow. You and the other snow geese will be the only ones on the roads.

 

You both sold me. Bring on the heavy snow!  :weenie:

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burgertime

burgertime

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  On 2/24/2015 at 12:18 AM, extremewx52 said:

I'm traveling to Atlanta on Wednesday night, so this storm has certainly piqued my interest. Can't decide if I want the northern PV anomaly to crush this storm and keep it south of Atlanta to make my trip easier, or if I want to drive right into the heart of 1/4 mile ripping snow. Being from Indiana, the snow doesn't worry me, it's the other idiots on the road. There are plenty of people up here who drive in it 5 months out of the year and don't know what they are doing, I imagine it is probably worse down there where it rarely snows.

I would suggest not driving. Drivers are insane when it snows down here especially further south like ATL.
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audioguy3107

audioguy3107

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  On 2/24/2015 at 12:18 AM, extremewx52 said:

I'm traveling to Atlanta on Wednesday night, so this storm has certainly piqued my interest. Can't decide if I want the northern PV anomaly to crush this storm and keep it south of Atlanta to make my trip easier, or if I want to drive right into the heart of 1/4 mile ripping snow.  Being from Indiana, the snow doesn't worry me, it's the other idiots on the road. There are plenty of people up here who drive in it 5 months out of the year and don't know what they are doing, I imagine it is probably worse down there where it rarely snows. 

 

You have no idea....you saw what snowmageddon did down here last year, right?  It was like the Walking Dead only with snow.  The good thing about this storm is that temps won't be in the low 20's, but you're still gonna have southern drivers go crazy if snow is falling.  Darwin awards all around.  You've been warned! :)

 

- Buck

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metwannabe

metwannabe

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  On 2/24/2015 at 12:19 AM, superjames1992 said:

Where is this south precip shift? There is zero evidence of it aside from one GFS run. The Euro and UKMET continue to spread precip further northwards on each successive run, even with a fairly constant track. The precip field is expanding, if anything.

The GEFS shifted south a little with the snow band over miss and alabama

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Local Yokel Wx

Local Yokel Wx

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  On 2/24/2015 at 12:18 AM, extremewx52 said:

I'm traveling to Atlanta on Wednesday night, so this storm has certainly piqued my interest. Can't decide if I want the northern PV anomaly to crush this storm and keep it south of Atlanta to make my trip easier, or if I want to drive right into the heart of 1/4 mile ripping snow.  Being from Indiana, the snow doesn't worry me, it's the other idiots on the road. There are plenty of people up here who drive in it 5 months out of the year and don't know what they are doing, I imagine it is probably worse down there where it rarely snows. 

 

I'm in the same boat. Catching a flight at 10am out of ATL on Thur and leaving Knoxville around 5am to catch the flight. I might leave earlier knowing the traffic will be bad. 

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CherokeeGA

CherokeeGA

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  On 2/24/2015 at 12:18 AM, extremewx52 said:

I'm traveling to Atlanta on Wednesday night, so this storm has certainly piqued my interest. Can't decide if I want the northern PV anomaly to crush this storm and keep it south of Atlanta to make my trip easier, or if I want to drive right into the heart of 1/4 mile ripping snow.  Being from Indiana, the snow doesn't worry me, it's the other idiots on the road. There are plenty of people up here who drive in it 5 months out of the year and don't know what they are doing, I imagine it is probably worse down there where it rarely snows. 

 

Really, the only time you are going to run into  Snowmageddon type traffic here (or anywhere else in the South, it happened in AL and NC last year too) is when the storm rolls in midday.  If people get out of their houses and to work and school before the precip starts, then it all goes to hell in a handbasket when they get back on the road to get home.

 

As long as the precip rolls in at night, which normally it does (not least because we often have temp issues during daylight that prevent much frozen stuff), then you are absolutely fine.  Everyone will wake up, see the crap on the road or the white stuff in the yard, and not even leave the house for the day.  If you go out driving around on days like that you literally see hardly anybody driving.

 

Since both tonight and the next event are starting at night, there probably won't be too much fallout on the roads.

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SN_Lover

SN_Lover

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  On 2/24/2015 at 1:00 AM, mackerel_sky said:

Don't know if this has been posted already, but here it is, and cold rains' favorite words are in there! Dynamic cooling!

I remember one year when we were banking on this and all i got was rain with spurts of snow when precip was heavy. People in the comma head north of NC/SC state line should do good though. 

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Wow

Wow

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  On 2/24/2015 at 1:22 AM, franklin NCwx said:

Sref surface low is the same as 15z, precip maybe a little wetter farther north? Might look the same it's a good run.

 

Very similar to 15z..maybe not quite as far west in TN?  I'm only comparing the 57 hr map.

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packbacker

packbacker

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Posted
  On 2/24/2015 at 12:55 AM, franklin NCwx said:

Here is the 2nd best model behind the ukie.attachicon.gifnav_pr6_slp_t850_east_11.png

 

The NAVGEM is great, it has 1" QPF tickling CLT/RDU.  It's similar to the UK but the Euro is weaker, although the EPS is probably close.  Hopefully the GFS Op shows something tonight that's a little better...

post-2311-0-76185800-1424741318_thumb.pn

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