PackGrad05 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Fishel just said he is worried about a high temp of 47 on Wednesday cutting down accumulations from that night because of a very warm ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 10:20 PM, franklin NCwx said: I guess if your not looking at the nam, sref, ukie, euro control, and cmc. Yeah that's kinda what I thought to Franklin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Every year warm ground comes up and every year heavy rates make that argument moot. If the temp drops like a rock and we have heavy rates you might loose a half inch of snow...maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 10:20 PM, franklin NCwx said: I guess if your not looking at the nam, sref, ukie, euro control, and cmc. Most models have been "steady as she goes" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The OP GFS is really the only thing holding us back on this system. GEFS has been encouraging, but I would really like to see a few runs of the OP GFS falling in line with foreign guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 well warm ground isn't the issue anyway. warm roads will lessen the impact on travel, which is the most important thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 10:24 PM, MariettaWx said: Most models have been "steady as she goes" The Euro if it verifies will score the coup with how consistent it's been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 10:24 PM, MariettaWx said: Most models have been "steady as she goes" Since when? Maybe last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 10:26 PM, POWERSTROKE said: Since when? Maybe last 24 hours. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think this needs to trend to a closed low to make significant impact in mby. The boundary level temps, and the speed of this thing is really going to limit it's impact IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 10:22 PM, PackGrad05 said: Fishel just said he is worried about a high temp of 47 on Wednesday cutting down accumulations from that night because of a very warm ground.If we get a good amount of accumulation how in the heck will it reach 47 at the surface? I'm guessing some cloud cover will last after noon and then temps will crash Wed night below freezing and into the 20s so why talk about road temps? I agree with burger they would cut into accums but not if we have heavy rates. I have to look at what the euro is spitting out for a max temp but it just sounds silly to be near 50 after the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 10:27 PM, MariettaWx said: Exactly I hope so for your sake. All models went north except GFS. So I hope its right for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 10:24 PM, MariettaWx said: Most models have been "steady as she goes"steady as she goes north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 10:29 PM, POWERSTROKE said: I hope so for your sake. All models went north except GFS. So I hope its right for you. If the GFS is right I get nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 10:25 PM, PackGrad05 said: well warm ground isn't the issue anyway. warm roads will lessen the impact on travel, which is the most important thing. Temps in the 40's during the day will have zero impact on accumulations at night. I don't get where met's come up w/ this crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 10:30 PM, franklin NCwx said: steady as she goes north? We obviously agree to disagree, I didn't see a NW "trend" today on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 10:31 PM, HKY_WX said: Temps in the 40's during the day will have zero impact on accumulations at night. I don't get where met's come up w/ this crap. Mind you, the ground is still plenty cold from last week. We've had exactly one day in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 10:31 PM, MariettaWx said: If the GFS is right I get nothing Got to hate that. I think you will be fine where you are sitting no need to worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 10:32 PM, MariettaWx said: We obviously agree to disagree, I didn't see a NW "trend" today on the models.cmc had nothing then it came north, the ukie, nam and sref have all come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 10:32 PM, Queencitywx said: Mind you, the ground is still plenty cold from last week. We've had exactly one day in the 50s. Exactly and lows this week will keep ground temps down as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 If we get to the upper 40s on Wednesday, I think it'll take longer than we seem to think for temps to crash. It always does. Somebody tell me why I'm not thinking about it right. I don't care about the ground at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 10:29 PM, Jon said: If we get a good amount of accumulation how in the heck will it reach 47 at the surface? I'm guessing some cloud cover will last after noon and then temps will crash Wed night below freezing and into the 20s so why talk about road temps? I agree with burger they would cut into accums but not if we have heavy rates. I have to look at what the euro is spitting out for a max temp but it just sounds silly to be near 50 after the system. 47 on wednesday ahead of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 10:33 PM, franklin NCwx said: cmc had nothing then it came north, the ukie, nam and sref have all come north. Precip field has been expanding north but for Low pressure locations and rain/snow transition lines have remained pretty stable. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 18z NAVGEM is sweet.... No shortage of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 10:33 PM, franklin NCwx said: cmc had nothing then it came north, the ukie, nam and sref have all come north. Even Allan , Robert and several others have said that today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 10:32 PM, Queencitywx said: Mind you, the ground is still plenty cold from last week. We've had exactly one day in the 50s. I still have sleet around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I agree. The higher the temp gets Wednesday, it is going to take a looooong time to get temperatures cold enough for snow. I've seen this a million times. Waiting up all night long waiting for that rain to transition to snow and by the time it does, dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 10:32 PM, Queencitywx said: Mind you, the ground is still plenty cold from last week. We've had exactly one day in the 50s. I was about to bring that up. Seems like some just love to ignore that record cold snap last week, and a brief warm up And somehow magically the ground is a an incubator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 James Spann's afternoon discussion has an initial call of 2-4" north of a line from about 40 miles south of both Birmingham and Atlanta northward in Both GA and AL to the Tennessee state line. He expects a deform band to set up somewhere in there that could produce 8"!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 DT had a post about the NW trend how it is bogus except for the GFS. Because it is a flawed model. Expecting the GFS to correct NW. Who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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