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The AWT trend to colder obs thread 02/21-02/22


Damage In Tolland

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Even in CT...it really only did well for about 2/3 of the state. Most of Middlesex and New London counties fell short of the 6" spit out by the rgem...generally 2-4" fell.

RGEM wasn't bad for SE CT. The runs had 2-5 with close to 6" up near IJD. It wasn't really that far off. I looked at the p-type accumulation panels and it missed out on the IP. I guess it didn't warm "taint" quite as far north as what verified. Even then, we're only talking about a 15-30 mile difference.
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That's a cheap win because he wasn't thinking it would happen because of full sunshine. He was thinking a warmer rain. So he will win for the wrong reason. But a loss is still a loss

 

To be fair, I never said anything about whether temps would crack 34 in precip...I left it open to the entire weekend. I will admit while I figured the event was going to trend a bit colder, it did exceed my expectations...but you have to admit you were pretty adamant that BDL wouldn't crack 34 at all, even post precip.

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Really really bad here, Lost 1.25" of Sow Depth in 3 hours of sun. My roof is a river of water, Steam on the deck. Everything is mushy, And I'm shoveling water. Bad bad Bad day.

Oh Ya, WORST of all, Boston went above freezing Before midnight so doesn't that mean it did Not tie the record?

What record?

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Really really bad here, Lost 1.25" of Sow Depth in 3 hours of sun. My roof is a river of water, Steam on the deck. Everything is mushy, And I'm shoveling water. Bad bad Bad day.

Oh Ya, WORST of all, Boston went above freezing Before midnight so doesn't that mean it did Not tie the record?

 

Yeah, lots of water around. Gonna be some nasty areas of ice when we freeze tonight.

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To be fair, I never said anything about whether temps would crack 34 in precip...I left it open to the entire weekend. I will admit while I figured the event was going to trend a bit colder, it did exceed my expectations...but you have to admit you were pretty adamant that BDL wouldn't crack 34 at all, even post precip.

Because I didn't plan on the sun coming out today. i think had it stayed cloudy like I envisioned I would have won..but the whole system sped up from when we made the bet, and I lost

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This is the kind of day that makes one think that spring won't be so bad.  Bright, warm sunshine causing rivers to run down the roads and pond up at the bottom of hills and potholes.  Of course, once I think of the return of bugs, my enthusiasm for the warmth dies down.

 

35.5/24 off a high of 35.8.

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The best way to describe the RGEM in this event was "good in CT, cruddy elsewhere"...if you live in CT, then you thought it did well, if you lived in MA/NH/VT/ME/E NY you thought it was bad. It wasn't an epic bust on a regional scale...but it doesn't get any high marks this storm like it did in the blizzard and the Feb 2nd event or Jan 24th event.

It's difficult to assess the regional accuracy of a model that comes out every 6 hours.  The local precip mins and maxes changed on the RGEM yesterday with each cycle.  QPF is just a difficult way to assess model verification.

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It's difficult to assess the regional accuracy of a model that comes out every 6 hours.  The local precip mins and maxes changed on the RGEM yesterday with each cycle.  QPF is just a difficult way to assess model verification.

 

 

Yeah it does make it more difficult...though the RGEM had a consistent "screw zone" in ORH county on every run that never verified and was definitely hitting the BOS metro area pretty good with 4"+ snow. I don't think it was showing the S VT snows on any run either...maybe one run early on?

 

Regardless, it was not a performance I would remotely describe as "nailed it" or anything.

 

It wasn't a large event so it's not really a high profile miss like the Euro in the Feb 14-15 storm.

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Really amused by the 99.9 at Logan... last night I posted wondering how close we could get without breaking it.

 

Epicosity ground to a halt, another Leon-esque stand this winter.

 

I am sure we break it, and obviously rooting to destroy 95-96, but none of this inch here inch there.

 

Prefer to break it in style. Bowling ball or some other spring-baroclinicity-infused blue bomb.

 

Of course, Boston.com rolled out a clearly pre-written "We Did It --- 100 Inches of Snow!" headline and article.

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