tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 tombo, how do the western fringes (Harrisburg, Lancaster, Reading) fare with Rhe bomb? Is it still to east for the flow to kick back that far inland? mdt .25-.5 lns and rdg... .5-.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I need a towel. Haaa! Yes, the only thing that really worries me is that our little Monmouth Co. Is bullseyed just about every big run the past two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I can't believe im flying out on xmas early morning...anyway I can do something about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Haaa! Yes, the only thing that really worries me is that our little Monmouth Co. Is bullseyed just about every big run the past two days. Yeah gotta love that 1.5"+ maximum in Monmouth. With this type of situation with a strong coastal deformation band, we tend to do pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I can't believe im flying out on xmas early morning...anyway I can do something about that? Cancel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah gotta love that 1.5"+ maximum in Monmouth. With this type of situation with a strong coastal deformation band, we tend to do pretty well. This would be a good storm for me before moving to Lyndhurst in January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Cancel it. 300 bucks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 not a lot of QPF though... I know you shouldn't look at that whole heartedly at this stage, but what would cause this to be so dry? I wouldn't worry too much... It does seem drier than you think it would actually be, but with those kind of dynamics, the snowfall rates would be incredible. It would be able to produce several inches per hour, so you would pile it on really quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 holy poop look at the front that comes through at hr 300 good lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 not a lot of QPF though... I know you shouldn't look at that whole heartedly at this stage, but what would cause this to be so dry? Which areas are you talking about? The GFS gives PHL-most of NJ-NYC-LI 1-1.5'' QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Very impressive. Hopefully will lead other guidance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This would be a good storm for me before moving to Lyndhurst in January! Yeah just be careful up there man, winters can get pretty brutal and snow often drifts beyond the chest. Pack your tundra gear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 holy poop look at the front that comes through at hr 300 good lord wow! yea, that's gonna feel nasty coming through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 wow! yea, that's gonna feel nasty coming through Why what's it show? a Nice March 8th, 2005 type of situation... hahaha - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hr 360 blizzard lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 another holy poop, granted its hr 384 but jeez yikes -30 850 temps coming into mn, sub 492 thickness holy shlat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 DE would be about .5-.75 in terms of QPF. The northern portion would be on the higher end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hr 360 blizzard lol yea.... lol... that thing moves quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 another holy poop, granted its hr 384 but jeez yikes -30 850 temps coming into mn, sub 492 thickness holy shlat I know.. I was just looking at that too.. I think the -36 to -40 isotherm range is right near the Canadian border.. ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 now i realize why that fantasy blizzard is moving so quick.. I forgot it's12 hour intervals at that point instead of 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Which areas are you talking about? The GFS gives PHL-most of NJ-NYC-LI 1-1.5'' QPF. Further inland... with the corresponding maps (700RH, and 500 maps) it would appear the QPF would be greater. Not the .5 to .6 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Onto the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Phase/negative tilt, big time stuff came around. What a run, 'classic' as HM puts it. I'm just quite optimistic right now, and maybe the 00z runs tonight trend towards a better hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 blizzard of 96 repeat on Jan 4,2011 per GFS lol, this is a gfs model run for the records, christmas snowstorm, and two more, at least by my count. Too bad it is fantasy land (not saying xmas storm, just the stuff beyond it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 amazing post- easy to understand...and most important I hope your analysis is correct John, Nice analysis of the upcoming potential. I was looking through some H5 maps prior/during our big storms since 2000, and wanted to share an interesting finding regarding the orientation of the PNA ridge out West (don't worry, it's good news). For 30 DEC 00, 05 DEC 03, 22-23 JAN 05, 11 FEB 06, 19 DEC 09, 25-26 FEB 10 -- all of these events except for December 03 featured a ridge axis aligned no more than 200 miles either side of the classic Boise ID line, but the amplitude of the ridge generally only extended into SW Canada. The difference w/ the H5 progression here is we've got the PNA high heights extending well into central Canada and hooking up with the west based -NAO block. What this does is force the short wave rolling down the periphery of the ridge to dig/amplify, slow down, and increase the potential phasing of streams. It also yields a height rise along the east coast in advance of the short wave, adding to the slow-down process of the storm, and essentially allowing the nern stream energy to catch-up to complete the phase. Although its not in the classic N-S position near Boise ID, the ridge amplitude is so extreme that it congeals with the N-C Canadian block and thus forces the downstream s/w to be slower and more energized/amplified. Of course we could still see the phase occur a bit offshore if the timing of the nern stream involvment is less than ideal, but as it stands right now, I think we're looking pretty good, and considering this is a strong La Nina, I can't paint a much better picture than we have on this H5 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GGEM is out to 84 right now. Any feedback? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Further inland... with the corresponding maps (700RH, and 500 maps) it would appear the QPF would be greater. Not the .5 to .6 range. Don't worry about QPF panels in this stage of the game. Just look at the overall pattern. Predicting QPF is a within-72 hrs deal. Personally, I would think with that wound up a low that the snow would extend back to I-81 or so, but it's way too early to tell. That's why I really hope we still see these blown up solutions 72 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 gem hr 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the gfs ens are off shore but they did nudge west from 18z i believe, stornger signal for a coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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