tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hr 90 has lgt precip just west of dc and into wpa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 It's still pretty dijointed with the phase at 96 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hr 96 has a sub 1012 over far southern sc by ga border. lgt precip just into dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 78 ridge just not pumping as much as 12Z and phase is weaker. I fear this will be OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hr 99 sub 1012 over myrtle beachlgt precip up to balt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This run looks slightly slower than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 10:07 PM, hazwoper said: 78 ridge just not pumping as much as 12Z and phase is weaker. I fear this will be OTS Ridge out West is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 10:08 PM, RobBensalemSnow said: Um again this is an 18Z off hour model run 4-5 days out right? Look for the trend ;-) Again, this is a myth. 0z,6z,12z and 18z have all performed quite similarly for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah, ots, I know the storm is 5 days away, but a couple models today have it heading ots, hopefully this isn't a trend to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hr 111 sub 1004 storm heading ene from cape fear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 10:11 PM, tombo82685 said: hr 111 sub 1004 storm heading ene from cape fear Oh well well. See ya all at 0Z. I am not worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well if models could try, the GFS was certainly trying here. But it failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 108 hr closed 500h around ohio/pa.... different than euro/ ggem still.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobBensalemSnow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Not a myth the off hour runs on the GFS and NAM are missing data, look it up, that is fact! They were created for TV Forecasters for the 12PM and 6PM Newscasts and are never as accurate until 24-48 hours out! Thats fact! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Time to break out an old weenie phrase here. The GFS always loses the storm in the medium range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This run is slower than 12Z, still going to be east. But with the large timing differences between the GFS and EURO, one has to give in to the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the gfs looks so fast compared to other models...At 111 its already OTS, this is something that i do not buy atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 10:12 PM, hazwoper said: Oh well well. See ya all at 0Z. I am not worried I see some good yet subtle pros on the H5 maps at 18Z vs 12Z... stronger +PNA ridge energy from PJ more consolidated as it slides down the backside of the tough to phase more moisture to work with based on H7 maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Just too much northerly flow at all levels. Especially with the trof axis in the intermountain west. In this respect the GFS has been trending worse for several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 10:14 PM, LVblizzard said: Time to break out an old weenie phrase here. The GFS always loses the storm in the medium range! Yeah because the gfs is totally wrong. Id rather have it shows out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 10:15 PM, TKFJ said: This run is slower than 12Z, still going to be east. But with the large timing differences between the GFS and EURO, one has to give in to the other. The one thing that worries me there is that the EURO has a known slow bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 10:14 PM, RobBensalemSnow said: Not a myth the off hour runs on the GFS and NAM are missing data, look it up, that is fact! They were created for TV Forecasters for the 12PM and 6PM Newscasts and are never as accurate until 24-48 hours out! Thats fact! It has been stated by several pros here the past few weeks that the gap between off hour and 12/00z runs is not a huge one anymore. You need to let it go. 4 years ago this was true, today not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the northern stream was to late on this, it trried but just to late combine that with a stornger 50/50 low and you see the result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 10:14 PM, LVblizzard said: Time to break out an old weenie phrase here. The GFS always loses the storm in the medium range! Well if if someone said that, the GFS hasn't really "had it" yet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 10:14 PM, LVblizzard said: Time to break out an old weenie phrase here. The GFS always loses the storm in the medium range! I was thinking when the 18z DGEX was out to sea that the 18z GFS wouldn't be a great run. The DGEX had digging that was unlike the NAM. Not a big deal if the GGEM/Euro are still good at 0z and the GFS trends better. It's true that the GFS can be slow to catch on to coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Wow, just looked at the surface....swing and big whiff! The GFS amazes me at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Is the speed of the s/w killing the phase, or is there multiple issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It had it every run from Friday through last night On 12/21/2010 at 10:16 PM, Snowtrain said: Well if if someone said that, the GFS hasn't really "had it" yet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 10:17 PM, daxx said: Is the speed of the s/w killing the phase, or is there multiple issues? This run looked to have multiple factors working against it: The speed of initial s/w and timing of interactions as well as the Atlantic height field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 10:16 PM, Snowtrain said: Well if if someone said that, the GFS hasn't really "had it" yet either. GFS is a POS..it can't handle an east coast storm..never has..never will..it always loses it in this time frame..and then brings it back within 3 days..believe me..go with the Euro and it's ensembles until it tells you not to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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