Stormlover74 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 doubt we'll see anything close to Euro/GGEM but a step in the right direction and improvement over 12z would be nice Thanks for your input. 18Z GFS rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njrealtor84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 And it says Initial Time = 101220...... 12/20/2010, yesterday. Yep that's yesterdays run. I remember because the bullseye at hour 150 is practically over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Guaran****ingteed. +1 ...please cancel the show... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 That 18z DGEX is yesterday's run, today's DGEX doesn't come out on ewall for at least another 10-15 minutes. Thanks, I wasnt sure if you saw it from another source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Tombo, a big for calling the runs like you do. thank you, i enjoy doing it, its a lot of fun especially when things go like the 12z euro did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Guaran****ingteed. Radio shows tend to occur after westward outlying runs, so we set ourselves up for the disappointment of the band snapping back to the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yea you gotta give credit to Tombo. He's been on this like white on rice. Good job man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 through hr 33 everything looks the same on the gfs, the s/w may be a little stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 18Z 30 nearly identical to 12Z 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 s/w stronger at hr 36, already closed off while 12z was open Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Can't believe how much slower the ECM and GEM are. This storm has been at day 4-5 for three days now. The GFS will likely bump northwest here...that was an outlier flat solution IMO at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 radio show?ill expect it to jump east,seems like it always happens like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Can't believe how much slower the ECM and GEM are. This storm has been at day 4-5 for three days now. The GFS will likely bump northwest here...that was an outlier flat solution IMO at 12z If it maintains its relatively quick progression, I don't think this is a guarantee. Its ensemble spread suggests plenty of room for an even flatter solution this run. I'll be looking for any kind of movement towards the GGEM/Euro, even if that means in the interim transition that the surface result looks ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Can't believe how much slower the ECM and GEM are. This storm has been at day 4-5 for three days now. The GFS will likely bump northwest here...that was an outlier flat solution IMO at 12z yea its pretty funny...i've been saving 00z and 12z model run data for a few days now and the storm is always around day 5. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 The one main trend on the GFS is that it's less enthused with bringing in the northern stream heights and shortwave. That's leading to a less phased solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 through 54 s/w continues to be a tad stronger...better ridging on both sides of the trof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 at 48 the s/w appears a tad bit stronger allowing the ridge to build a bit more JUST ahead of it, but the confluence is stronger (or possibly just a bit further south actually) in the NE helping to knock down heights a bit in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 through 54 s/w continues to be a tad stronger...better ridging on both sides of the trof. Look how much further north it is with the phasing shortwaves in the northern stream. The GFS is trending slower, but it's not quite there yet..these in between type solutions are going to continue to slip out to sea until it decides on either side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 The phasing is less..the confluence is stronger. Nothing good through 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 I'll tell you what, though, the ridge is pumping much stronger and a hair further west so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I'll tell you what, though, the ridge is pumping much stronger and a hair further west so far. Yeah, that looks promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 The stronger confluence is a killer thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The stronger confluence is a killer thus far. John, we're only thru 60 hours. This system, if progged right by GGEM/EURO, is still 5 days away. The confluence starts lifting on the NAM near the end of it's run, we'll see if the GFS holds suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Big phase 78-81 hrs..heights a little low, lets see if this can turn the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 John, we're only thru 60 hours. This system, if progged right by GGEM/EURO, is still 5 days away. The confluence starts lifting on the NAM near the end of it's run. Strongly agree..but the stronger confluence initially makes it a little more difficult down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 John, we're only thru 60 hours. This system, if progged right by GGEM/EURO, is still 5 days away. The confluence starts lifting on the NAM near the end of it's run, we'll see if the GFS holds suit. Yeah, but there is quite a difference between 12Z and 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Big phase 78-81 hrs..heights a little low, lets see if this can turn the corner. Earlier phase could be good at least for a better solution than 12z, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Big phase 78-81 hrs..heights a little low, lets see if this can turn the corner. if this was 12z speed, this would be ots, it very well may be. Since this run is slower it may give it enough time to grab it and pull it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Strongly agree..but the stronger confluence initially makes it a little more difficult down the road. Great point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobBensalemSnow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This is an 18Z Off Hour Model Run 4-5 days out right...... ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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