billgwx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Today's ECMWF looks totally out to lunch to me...way too strong a srn stream vort trying to plow into shortwave ridging in NM/TX Thu night/Fri and way too much phasing of streams thereafter. Taken verbatim its forecast of a snainstorm would still not excite me in the least here on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Funny thing is with all these high qpf numbers the euro has a bias to underdo precip. As well wow what a great run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Today's ECMWF looks totally out to lunch to me...way too strong a srn stream vort trying to plow into shortwave ridging in NM/TX Thu night/Fri and way too much phasing of streams thereafter. Taken verbatim its forecast of a snainstorm would still not excite me in the least here on Long Island. Would you prefer a blend of the GFS/EURO, or the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Funny thing is with all these high qpf numbers the euro has a bias to underdo precip. As well wow what a great run we have to have a new drinking game. Every time someone from the media mentions the words "historic" and "blizzard" you take a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The Euro is consistent right now, and it's almost in its deadly range. If it's still showing the same thing at 12z tomorrow, then this is the probable solution. Just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 we have to have a new drinking game. Every time someone from the media mentions the words "historic" and "blizzard" you take a shot. 2 shots for "biblical." 3 if it's a meteorologist saying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njrealtor84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It has been in the same range for 2 days now as timing keeps getting pushed back. The Euro is consistent right now, and it's almost in its deadly range. If it's still showing the same thing at 12z tomorrow, then this is the probable solution. Just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The Euro is consistent right now, and it's almost in its deadly range. If it's still showing the same thing at 12z tomorrow, then this is the probable solution. Just wow. EURO is likely too slow though from what I'm reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The Euro is consistent right now, and it's almost in its deadly range. If it's still showing the same thing at 12z tomorrow, then this is the probable solution. Just wow. But it won't...with the s/w coming on shore tomorrow, it will spit out, hopefully, a more realistic sol'n. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethlehemBlizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Not that it will, but could you imagine if something close to that verified what the Eagles-Vikings game would be like Sunday night? Holy f&*%! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I still think the ECM/CMC solutions seem quite realistic, nothing has changed since last night. GFS alters the CAA eastward too quickly given the weak PV the models are phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS may be too suppressed. Adjusting the mean surface low track of the more northwestern cluster of its ensemble members 100 miles NW would take a 985-ish low from Hatteras to 39/70 rather than 40/70, which would at least mean all snow, but with the higher amounts across eastern Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Do you see this as Saturday-Sunday in terms of timing, or Sunday-Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lman Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Wow the Eagles - Vikings game Sunday night will be crazy if this verifies. Probably in the thick of the storm!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 New AFD from Upton: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TRI-STATE SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AFTER THAT THINGS DIVERGE. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE STORM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST AND THE CMC-GLOBAL IN BETWEEN...BUT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...NOTING THAT THERE IS A GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS TOWARDS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM...USED THE CMC-GLOBAL AS A COMPROMISE FOR TIMING. NW FLOW ALOFT INTO FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO WEAK RIDGING FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. CLOSED 500 HPA LOW DIVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING A STRONG SURFACE LOW NEAR THE NC/VA CAPES. THE LOW THEN LIFTS NE...ALONG WITH THE 500 HPA LOW. THE CMC GLOBAL LIKELY IS TO FAR NW WITH ITS LOW TRACK...GIVEN THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM...BUT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS GROWING TOWARDS A TRACK INLAND OF THE N WALL...OPTED FOR A ECMWF TRACK WITH THE STORM...TAKING IT INSIDE THE 70/40 BENCHMARK...BUT PER ECMWF THERMAL FIELDS...JUST FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX JUST OFFSHORE. BASED ON CMC TIMING...WOULD EXPECT THE LOW TO BE NEAR CAPE COD MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS FLIPPED FLOPPED FROM ITS 18Z RUN GOING FROM THE LOW LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES...TO RIDGING BUILDING IN...AS THIS IS INCONSISTENT WITH A LIKELY CUTOFF LOW...OPTED FOR A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MONDAY...WITH THE REGION IN CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE STORM. IN TERMS OF TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE STORM...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SW 1/2 OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO CHANCE OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HAVE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS W/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST MONDAY MORNING...THEN DRY MONDAY AFTERNOON (THERE COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TO FANCY THIS FAR OUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 New AFD from Upton: That portion was written after the 0z Euro this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Would you prefer a blend of the GFS/EURO, or the GGEM? An early first guess deterministic forecast for me would be something like a GFS/ECMWF blend...snow with higher amounts more likely out east. Per my earlier posts I think the ECMWF is wrapping this storm up too tightly (and therefore moving it too slowly as its upper levels cut off), and that the GFS may be too suppressed and too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 That portion was written after the 0z Euro this morning. ah...ok. Probably will be out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 An early first guess deterministic forecast for me would be something like a GFS/ECMWF blend...snow with higher amounts more likely out east. Per my earlier posts I think the ECMWF is wrapping this storm up too tightly (and therefore moving it too slowly as its upper levels cut off), and that the GFS may be too suppressed and too fast. Thank You. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 we have to have a new drinking game. Every time someone from the media mentions the words "historic" and "blizzard" you take a shot. Haha id get trashed quick man I have no alcohol tolerance.....but if it happens being trashed around christmas time would be worth it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I still think the ECM/CMC solutions seem quite realistic, nothing has changed since last night. GFS alters the CAA eastward too quickly given the weak PV the models are phasing. the only thing with the euro thats alarming is that it slows everything down so much more than any of the other models i believe. You speed this up a little bit and you have a further east solution and maybe ots. I think the gem might be more realistic imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Euro ensembles are a benchmark track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Euro ensembles are a benchmark track How about just before that? Like from 96 on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Euro ensembles are a benchmark track same as 0z then? if not maybe a hair west of 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 In fact....I'd say they go a bit se of the BM faster than the OP euro as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Euro ensembles are a benchmark track Timing? Are we talking 132-144 like the OP or a little faster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 this is from a met in the gen forum thread who access to the euro ens and indiv i believe "I may be off looking at my grainy maps, but judging by precip fields only, ECMWF ensembles look only slightly east of the OP run. Member 1 of the ensemble package is a crushing hit, essentially mirroring the OP run. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Euro ensembles are a benchmark track Probably a more realistic option than the OP solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 is the timing any different? Euro ensembles are a benchmark track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yes, later Saturday night into Sunday IMO, the Euro is probably a bit to slow. Do you see this as Saturday-Sunday in terms of timing, or Sunday-Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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