ace0927 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Was just looking at Belmar, NJ (KBLM) numbers. While they get 1.66" QPF, at the height of the storm, 2m temps on the ECMWF soar to 4.4C, even though 850s are at -2C. Verbatim, the ground is above freezing for the entirety of the storm. ACY gets nearly as warm at the surface with 1.86" total QPF. what about NYC? LI? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 that is fair- i just took a look at the 850 temps and they are close from C LI to NYC proper....still below 0C eitherw ay its an awesome depiction and I hope it plays out with that 60MB diff between HP and LP....would be AWESOME to see. Would certainly be a windy storm if it played out this way...especially for you on the ocean. would love to watch a storm like this from the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 i respectfully disagree. verbatim...the twin forks do have some issues, as does maybe the very south shore. i dont see any temp issues with a track like that for anyone north of the LIE and west of wading river. and i certainly disagree with the winners being so far inland as the catskills/poconos. if anything, jackpots witgh a storm like this i would think would be JUST inland. northern westchester, northern new jersey, rockland county, etc. I can see areas near HPN coming in with the highest amounts but orographic lift is a beautiful thing and I wouldnt be surprised to see some insane amounts in the catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Going to play devil's advocate here, but this solution is so extreme that its probability of verifying is also very low. Slowing down the short wave as much as the Euro indicates, while possible, is not likely. I don't buy the GFS solution however as I believe it's taken the other extreme, very delayed phasing. So we've got both ends of the spectrum covered right now - a whiff, to a HECS type event on the Euro (which actually inland areas like NW NJ, interior SNE would be jackpotted due to better ratios). A solution somewhere in the middle is probably the best route to take at this point. If the models remain consistent and begin converging on the idea of a major slow-down w/ the sern stream short wave, thus allowlng the nern stream energy to phase early and yield a massive snow for the whole east coast, then we'll start talking. But let's remember this is also a day 5-6 map, which concerns me in itself considering the track record we've seen so far this winter. The pattern is obviously very conducive for something major w/ a west based -NAO block and monster PNA ridge just east of the classic position but extending well NE into N-C Canada. However, can we pull off a storm of the magnitude depicted on the Euro/UKIE with this pattern, and on top of that in a strong la nina year which generally argues against the very slow/amplified solutions. We'll see how it unfolds. No doubt it's difficult not to get excited with these Euro runs, but I'm worried the Euro may be throwing the most extreme solution possible at us right now. And we all know taking the extreme route puts one at a very very high risk of busting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Dear Santa, Please push the track about 75 miles E of it's current setup. Those of us on LI have been very good lately Nah lets leave it there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12z GGEM btw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Anyone think the Euro might be about 12-18hrs to slow?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 it may bust but still nice to see this thing... we need to name it... euro is know to be slow.. no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 was there really 320 ppl reading this thread during the euro, i thought i glanced and saw that at one pt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 was there really 320 ppl reading this thread during the euro, i thought i glanced and saw that at one pt? yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Was just looking at Belmar, NJ (KBLM) numbers. While they get 1.66" QPF, at the height of the storm, 2m temps on the ECMWF soar to 4.4C, even though 850s are at -2C. Verbatim, the ground is above freezing for the entirety of the storm. ACY gets nearly as warm at the surface with 1.86" total QPF. Yup, its a coastal rainstorm this time of year, ocean waters a bit to warm until winds turn more north. Im about 12 miles in from that station so it a wicked cutoff R/SN line a few miles either side of MBY. See it happen all the time with these well wrapped up systems. Hopefully will get something a little futhur off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 surface temps tend to be too high on the models every time, especially this far out. i would be more concerned with wind direction as the storm progresses. gotta keep a northerly component if you live on the NJ coast. Of course...having lived there for 20 years, I'm well aware. It's when I see some surface temps around 40F, that certainly does raise a red flag. I hate taking verbatim 2m temps on the models, but there is value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 was there really 320 ppl reading this thread during the euro, i thought i glanced and saw that at one pt? Yep, you're a star, tombo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 was there really 320 ppl reading this thread during the euro, i thought i glanced and saw that at one pt? Welcome to winter @ american! solstice stylee So...I have a flight leaving Newark to Anchorage Sunday at 10 AM....looks like my chances of that taking off are getting better with each run, or would there be some issues verbatim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yup, its a coastal rainstorm this time of year, ocean waters a bit to warm until winds turn more north. Im about 12 miles in from that station so it a wicked cutoff R/SN line a few miles either side of MBY. See it happen all the time with these well wrapped up systems. Hopefully will get something a little futhur off shore. Yeah verbatim the solution isn't great for us. Actually looks like on the H7 maps the dry-slot would be just to our SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 FWIW, the 12z Nogaps is closer to hitting the west coast of Europe then the east coast of North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 was there really 320 ppl reading this thread during the euro, i thought i glanced and saw that at one pt? Check out my post on page 32. I posted what it peaked at.. Insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Wish people would stop freaking out saying it will be a rainstorm for them. Next run it might be 100 miles east.... the storm is bound to do some bouncing around before all said and done just relax.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The 12z Euro 12/21 at 120hrs has the low off the SC/GA coast ..12z GGEM 12/21 at 120hrs has the low off NC/VA coast ... Euro is a lot slower so either the other models are a little too fast or the euro is too slow. Gonna be huge in the end and that's what is so important now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I would say the Euro is a bit to slow which it has been known to be in the past, usually by 12-24hrs. The 12z Euro 12/21 at 120hrs has the low off the SC/GA coast ..12z GGEM 12/21 at 120hrs has the low off NC/VA coast ... Euro is a lot slower so either the other models are a little too fast or the euro is too slow. Gonna be huge in the end and that's what is so important now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah verbatim the solution isn't great for us. Actually looks like on the H7 maps the dry-slot would be just to our SE. However, (without seeing EC surface maps) with a sub 970 beast, wouldn't we have screaming NNE winds plus dynamics to reduce our chances of change over as at least limit it as the Dry Slot nears? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I would say the Euro is a bit to slow which it has been known to be in the past, usually by 12-24hrs. I would agree at this point, the Euro is probably too slow/amplified while the GFS is likely too weak/delayed w/ the phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 What's frustrating at this point is that we don't seem to be getting any closer to 00hr. For NYC area I Origionally was thinking storm begins Saturday afternoon, watches Thursday. Now I'm thinking storm sunday night...watches Friday night?? Personally with my plans for Christmas I'm happy to see the timing get pushed back but as much fun as its been watching all the model porn these last few days its time to start making progress. I have a feeling that the Euro is probably too slow, the GFS is too fast and a soution similar to the GGEM is a reasonable comprimise....which still gives most of us a very healthy event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The 12z Euro 12/21 at 120hrs has the low off the SC/GA coast ..12z GGEM 12/21 at 120hrs has the low off NC/VA coast ... Euro is a lot slower so either the other models are a little too fast or the euro is too slow. Gonna be huge in the end and that's what is so important now. Who's freaking out? Its just native for our climo to have change overs with well wrapped up beasts like the 12Z EC is depicting, this puppy is gonna change 5 to10 more times before it varifies so no, no one should be freaking out on any of these runs, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 However, (without seeing EC surface maps) with a sub 970 beast, wouldn't we have screaming NNE winds plus dynamics to reduce our chances of change over as at least limit it as the Dry Slot nears? As long as the surface low is not basically on top of us, the dynamics w/ a storm that strong would be able to wrap cold air in pretty close to its center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 IMO, if this storm comes to fruition which I am very hopeful it will, this is still a late Christmas evening into Sunday the 26th threat, with the heart of the storm being during the day on the 26th. I would agree at this point, the Euro is probably too slow/amplified while the GFS is likely too weak/delayed w/ the phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I would agree at this point, the Euro is probably too slow/amplified while the GFS is likely too weak/delayed w/ the phasing. Blend the two and we get creamed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I had a retirement lunch to go to and now I'm back. Jeez.. I just looked at the Euro... I had to pinch myself to see if I was dreaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I would agree at this point, the Euro is probably too slow/amplified while the GFS is likely too weak/delayed w/ the phasing. This...when you have a 12-18 hour difference in timing of the disturbance plus more amplification in the pattern you're going to get a bomb like the Euro is depicting. It's about as likely to verify as the 12z GFS from today is...they are both extremes on one end or the other, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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