Bobby Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 as depicted i think this is a perfect run for us (im in commack). but we dont have much wiggle room west. still, i think the final solution ends up east of this offering, blending with the others. i really like where we are at this time. north shore also helps. Hopefully it does end up slightly E of the current run. Could set us up for some nice banding off the sound. Starting to get fun..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I'd take this even if there was a changeover. It'd be a historic storm in my book. Speaking of changeover, where does the 850 low track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 rain would not be much of an issue unless you can see the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Those numbers with even a 10:1 ratio would make for a very nice "Late" Christmas present Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 and some of that isnt snow....due north tracks from Jacksonville to ACY arent the best for all snow events for the coast.....the winners here will be the Catskills and Poconos (if it happens like the EURO shows) from greatest to least dark orange 2-2.5 green 1.75-2 pink 1.5-1.75 purple 1.25-1.5 yellow 1-1.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The Euro just gave the GFS the finger Any word on the 12z GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The euro is close to flipping eastern sections of NYC and esp LI to rain...such strong atl inflow, be careful of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 and 63 years to the day of the great 12/26/47 NYC storm. Does anyone have data on that storm? sounds like low snow ratios in NJ...NYC area but who cares right??? lol what an amazing storm if it were to verify. The implications of well over a foot of heavy wet snow combined with tropical storm force winds would be catasrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 UK Met stronger then Euro, but trending in the right direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Holy $#@%! Man I wish this was the night before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chademer07 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 LOL...can't wait to see the QPF map I think some of us might need to change pants...... Again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 rain would not be much of an issue unless you can see the ocean Nice to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Tombo, What happens to our New Years Eve Storm? Rossi well im out to hr 222 and there is no storm yet, but it would deff cut when it comes out of the rockies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 would be hard to have a low that strong that close and not flip for a time. That exactly scenario would seem unlikely anyway from this far out The euro is close to flipping eastern sections of NYC and esp LI to rain...such strong atl inflow, be careful of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hr 168 low finally moved to just south of ack....lgt precip phl to nyc Thanks for the play by play. Love to be in the coma head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The euro is close to flipping eastern sections of NYC and esp LI to rain...such strong atl inflow, be careful of that. yup- i had just posted that....too close for comfort... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Thanks Tom!!! Glad you woke in time for the Euto 12Z... take a nap for the 0Z.. we need you at 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 and some of that isnt snow....due north tracks from Jacksonville to ACY arent the best for all snow events for the coast.....the winners here will be the Catskills and Poconos (if it happens like the EURO shows) i respectfully disagree. verbatim...the twin forks do have some issues, as does maybe the very south shore. i dont see any temp issues with a track like that for anyone north of the LIE and west of wading river. and i certainly disagree with the winners being so far inland as the catskills/poconos. if anything, jackpots witgh a storm like this i would think would be JUST inland. northern westchester, northern new jersey, rockland county, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the precip numbers are starting to go up each run the euro has this bomb... if the low forms that deep south over FL it's gonna tap that gulf moisture. Slow moving bomb = tremendous qpf. 2"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Wow, what a run! Now we just need it to stop slowing down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 someone please correct me if I am wrong, but isn't it possible for snow amounts to be greater in areas farther west of the low because of better ratios regardless of the qpf depiction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 someone please correct me if I am wrong, but isn't it possible for snow amounts to be greater in areas farther west of the low because of better ratios regardless of the qpf depiction? yes it most certainly can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 The euro is close to flipping eastern sections of NYC and esp LI to rain...such strong atl inflow, be careful of that. Yeah...verbatim it's a huge hit and then potentially rain for a few hrs. But I am not worried...this solution is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Nam at 12z is awfully close to the euro...I think a closed H5 vort over TX is what we want now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Was just looking at Belmar, NJ (KBLM) numbers. While they get 1.66" QPF, at the height of the storm, 2m temps on the ECMWF soar to 4.4C, even though 850s are at -2C. Verbatim, the ground is above freezing for the entirety of the storm. ACY gets nearly as warm at the surface with 1.86" total QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah...verbatim it's a huge hit and then potentially rain for a few hrs. But I am not worried...this solution is ridiculous. Earthlight is this solution out of the realm of realistic possibilities with this storm though? Its the euro and its superior though but it would have to go perfect to get this to verify correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Nam at 12z is awfully close to the euro...I think a closed H5 vort over TX is what we want now.. yup according to a met it's almost identical.... this is a very good signal... inside 60hrs this would be almost a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 i respectfully disagree. verbatim...the twin forks do have some issues, as does maybe the very south shore. i dont see any temp issues with a track like that for anyone north of the LIE and west of wading river. and i certainly disagree with the winners being so far inland as the catskills/poconos. if anything, jackpots witgh a storm like this i would think would be JUST inland. northern westchester, northern new jersey, rockland county, etc. that is fair- i just took a look at the 850 temps and they are close from C LI to NYC proper....still below 0C eitherw ay its an awesome depiction and I hope it plays out with that 60MB diff between HP and LP....would be AWESOME to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Was just looking at Belmar, NJ (KBLM) numbers. While they get 1.66" QPF, at the height of the storm, 2m temps on the ECMWF soar to 4.4C, even though 850s are at -2C. Verbatim, the ground is above freezing for the entirety of the storm. ACY gets nearly as warm at the surface with 1.86" total QPF. surface temps tend to be too high on the models every time, especially this far out. i would be more concerned with wind direction as the storm progresses. gotta keep a northerly component if you live on the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Earthlight is this solution out of the realm of realistic possibilities with this storm though? Its the euro and its superior though but it would have to go perfect to get this to verify correct? It's not out of the realm of realistic possibilities at all, and I do think it would still be a big snowstorm for most people especially NYC and west. And yes, the Euro has been consistent here..but this is the furthest west and most amplified it's been yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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