JonClaw Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the 12z euro has init. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 through 30 the s/w entering is a little bit stronger so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 yes agreed, its not as good as 0z. Just one model run. People better distnace themselves with this threat cause if this ends up missing people are going to go insane. You should never go insane over the weather. Granted i want snow just as much as everyone else. I will never get bent out of shape over it, cause what can you do? You have no control over the weather or what not. Weather is a variable its going to act accordingly how it chooses neither one of us can do anything about it. Pastor Tom. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 yes agreed, its not as good as 0z. Just one model run. People better distnace themselves with this threat cause if this ends up missing people are going to go insane. You should never go insane over the weather. Granted i want snow just as much as everyone else. I will never get bent out of shape over it, cause what can you do? You have no control over the weather or what not. Weather is a variable its going to act accordingly how it chooses neither one of us can do anything about it. GOLD!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If EURO goes OTS, it's time to panic! If I'm not mistaken tho but didn't the euro start its ots solution last week around this time and didn't waver from it? I'm thinking that it was Monday it lost it and that was it. I'm confident as consistent as the euro has been with this current storm I'm not expecting a major change in forecast path/trajectory of this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If EURO goes OTS, it's time to panic! I'm already practicing my panic dance Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 it's funny.. EURO and ensembles showed an awesome track/set up... same with the gem and gfs last night( gfs being the least favorable).. today, the GFS goes OTS ... Here's what gets me... People are saying OTS OTS OTS! storm CANCEL! GET WORRIED! Now if the GFS had shown what the EURO had shown, and the EURO misses.. people would be YELLing STORM CANCEL !!! TIME TO PANIC! ITS OTS! Stop being weenies.. there's so many on here. Watch the overall set up people. look at the synoptic set up, upstream, downstream, timing... the shortwave hasn't even come onshore. For the folks that are reasonable in here , i apologize for the rant. It's just frustrating as hell to see the last 9 pages, and maybe only 2 would be actual intellectual conversations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 through 42, the s/w is a little weaker compared to 0z last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 312 User(s) are reading this topic 223 members, 72 guests, 17 anonymous users Pretty impressive for a thread in a subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the ridging out ahead of the system is stornger besides the slightly weaker s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 through 42, the s/w is a little weaker compared to 0z last night the 12z screw is on target lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 looks very similar to 0z No big changes through 48 at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 No, the Euro lost it around Day 4-6 but had it back big time on Thursday, which is when everyone jumped on board because it was the EURO and inside 72 hours so it should have been a done deal. It was way wrong of course and by Friday it was OTS like the rest of them If I'm not mistaken tho but didn't the euro start its ots solution last week around this time and didn't waver from it? I'm thinking that it was Monday it lost it and that was it. I'm confident as consistent as the euro has been with this current storm I'm not expecting a major change in forecast path/trajectory of this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the 12z screw is on target lol Note the fact that it is a little weaker, not greatly. The low's strength will fluctuate on the many different runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the 12z screw is on target lol You need professional help and fast . The run just started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hr 60 has a sub 1012 low in se col...lgt precip breaking out in the plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 it's funny.. EURO and ensembles showed an awesome track/set up... same with the gem and gfs last night( gfs being the least favorable).. today, the GFS goes OTS ... Here's what gets me... People are saying OTS OTS OTS! storm CANCEL! GET WORRIED! Now if the GFS had shown what the EURO had shown, and the EURO misses.. people would be YELLing STORM CANCEL !!! TIME TO PANIC! ITS OTS! Stop being weenies.. there's so many on here. Watch the overall set up people. look at the synoptic set up, upstream, downstream, timing... the shortwave hasn't even come onshore. For the folks that are reasonable in here , i apologize for the rant. It's just frustrating as hell to see the last 9 pages, and maybe only 2 would be actual intellectual conversations... Fully agree. This started as a great thread, and has gone steadily downhill for the last several hours. I don't write much for the most part, and just read what the people with skill write in here. I wish the people who have very little clue what they are talking about would just keep quiet so that they don't drown out the experts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 it's funny.. EURO and ensembles showed an awesome track/set up... same with the gem and gfs last night( gfs being the least favorable).. today, the GFS goes OTS ... Here's what gets me... People are saying OTS OTS OTS! storm CANCEL! GET WORRIED! Now if the GFS had shown what the EURO had shown, and the EURO misses.. people would be YELLing STORM CANCEL !!! TIME TO PANIC! ITS OTS! Stop being weenies.. there's so many on here. Watch the overall set up people. look at the synoptic set up, upstream, downstream, timing... the shortwave hasn't even come onshore. For the folks that are reasonable in here , i apologize for the rant. It's just frustrating as hell to see the last 9 pages, and maybe only 2 would be actual intellectual conversations... EXCELLENT POINT! Some people just look at the surface maps and have no clue how the models arrived at their respective solutions synoptically. I've been trying to stress all week that the GFS and Euro are not that far off...just handle things ever so slightly differently. I will say though, it seems apparant over the past several days that the GFS is attempting to catch up to the euro. It was mentioned in the 12z 12/20 thread that it appeared almost as if the 12z GFS cheated and started correcting itself half way through its run. I don't trust the GFS at all...especially when the Euro has been as consistent as its been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hr 66 has a 1012 low in northeast new mex...lgt precip from iowa to tx with some mod burst in there....s/w continues to be a little weaker and the ridging on the backside is not as impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Right, I think we're still in good shape provided the Euro looks similar to its last run and doesn't follow the GFS with its suppressed weak OTS look EXCELLENT POINT! Some people just look at the surface maps and have no clue how the models arrived at their respective solutions synoptically. I've been trying to stress all week that the GFS and Euro are not that far off...just handle things ever so slightly differently. I will say though, it seems apparant over the past several days that the GFS is attempting to catch up to the euro. It was mentioned in the 12z 12/20 thread that it appeared almost as if the 12z GFS cheated and started correcting itself half way through its run. Don't trust the GFS at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Euro is a bit slower again H5 looks fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hr 66 the s/w is not stronger...again slower h5 low over northern tex mod precip ok to tex and lgt precip from iowa south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 72 hrs http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hr 78 h5 low still closed off over se ok/north central tx..sub 1016 low south of dallas...lgt precip iowa to tex mod precip eastern tx and ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 At 78, the Euro is definitely a little slower/digging more than 0Z, closed 564 dam s/w over central Northern TX/OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 carbon copy of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hr 84 h5 low closed off over dallas mod precip eastern tx and eastern ok...lgt precip missouri ks south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 72 hrs http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest kinda matches the NAM at 78 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hr 84 h5 low closed off over dallas mod precip eastern tx and eastern ok...lgt precip missouri ks south This sounds like the 12z NAM at 84 hrs re the h5 closed low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Brace for panic...this is probably going to be like the UK. your joking right??? Why make comments like that wait for Tombo to finish the entire model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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