tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 heres the ukie at h5 day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 How does this system continue to be a day 5-6 threat now for the past 2 days. Seems like it keeps slowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looks like ggem recovered nicely! Recovered nicely for NYC but PHL, S NJ, and N DE are still in big danger of being looped around by this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 in all my years on the weather boards, I can't recall a season where people live and feel each model run is the storm. 5-6 days out andonly thing confirmed or likely is the strom is going to move east from the west coast. these storms are not hammered down until 24-48 hours before the event typically. Roger that the internet has changed everything. even just 10 years ago, there were basically no weather message boards, at least not with any kind of appreciable traffic. now, we have nearly instant access to every computer model on the planet and a place to discuss it with others. i'm not sure we are any different than we have ever been, but the hobby has certainly changed. also, as unreliable as the models are at this range...they have improved at this range every year for the last few decades. They are as good as they've ever been and will continue to improve. That said, we are still not even close to what I would consider an accurate range, but it is comforting when models mimic each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Recovered nicely for NYC but PHL, S NJ, and N DE are still in big danger of being looped around by this storm. Is there really a big danger 120 hours out? I mean come on man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the precip starts sun morn, maybe sat night...hr120 sun 12z has it snowing from nyc south as per color GGEM maps the storm doesnt move between 0Z and 12Z monday....yikes 132 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 in all my years on the weather boards, I can't recall a season where people live and feel each model run is the storm. 5-6 days out andonly thing confirmed or likely is the strom is going to move east from the west coast. these storms are not hammered down until 24-48 hours before the event typically. Roger that I think the 4 weeks of cold, dry weather (table being set) is driving it. If it we were in a milder regime, the anxiety might be lesser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Recovered nicely for NYC but PHL, S NJ, and N DE are still in big danger of being looped around by this storm. Recovered nicely, meaning it still shows a nice storm right off the coast for us instead of a complete miss like the gfs. We still have so much time to go with this storm. Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Right. There is danger that it behaves more like 12/30/00 in that you either get buried or next to nothing. But I would think that since there will be a storm already that everyone should see something, though it might be rather light. I'm not sure I agree with JB's assessment that its a 6 to 12" hit in the I-70 corridor. Would be nice if it had that kind of moisture as it moved east and we wouldn't need to worry about the phasing as much to get a solid snowstorm I found HM's post...maybe we shouldn't be so confident in an expanding precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I am completely confused... When checking the board at 6AM there was talk of a HECS from VA-ME, a nesis 4-5 event, a major hit for I95, model concensus, etc. Now as I read through the lunch-time posts, it's just the opposite... GFS and it's ensembles OTS, NGP a miss, GGEM a late phaser and essentially a miss for our area, UKIE OTS. What is going on? Can we have a met do an analysis and explain why the complete turn of events so quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think in alot of ways '08-'09 was worse because so many events did not come to fruition. It seemed like there was always something on the table, the GFS/NAM would show a blizzard and then the Euro would take the storm over Erie. Seemed like there were huge shifts in discrepancies. Overall it ended up being a decent average winter with the March snow and the February events helping out alot of the midatlantic. At least last season all of the frustration eventually went out the window as almost everyone got their storm at some point snow in all my years on the weather boards, I can't recall a season where people live and feel each model run is the storm. 5-6 days out andonly thing confirmed or likely is the strom is going to move east from the west coast. these storms are not hammered down until 24-48 hours before the event typically. Roger that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The 12z GFS and NAM runs really concern me. Also, I can't help but notice that the GFS ensembles have been gradually moving away from us with each cycle. My first thought was that the Atlantic was the problem, with the ocean low and orbiting shortwaves dragging down heights well east of the SE coast. But then I went frame by frame with the past several GFS, GGEM, and Euro runs, and I've changed my mind. The Atlantic, despite looking overbearing, isn't the main problem IMO. Nor are the upstream or downstream ridge axes. As others have said, it appears that subtle changes in the timing of the s/w interactions account for the critical differences. Somewhat paradoxically, it appears on the GFS charts that a slight slowing of the strong lead s/w induces a less favorable interaction with "northern stream" energy. With a faster initial speed, heights along the east coast rise sooner, and the lagging s/w energy carves out the backside of the trof. The Euro's (and to a lesser extent the GGEM's) even slower speed appears to allow for a 3rd barely distinguishable s/w to amplify the trof and dig it much further south. When I thought that the upstream cyclonic flow was the main suppressive culprit, I thought we were toast. But upon review I think that the timing of s/w interactions and their relative strengths will settle the issue (us usual). A roll of the dice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I am completely confused... When checking the board at 6AM there was talk of a HECS from VA-ME, a nesis 4-5 event, a major hit for I95, model concensus, etc. Now as I read through the lunch-time posts, it's just the opposite... GFS and it's ensembles OTS, NGP a miss, GGEM a late phaser and essentially a miss for our area, UKIE OTS. What is going on? Can we have a met do an analysis and explain why the complete turn of events so quickly? Models aren't going to come into a real consensus for probably a couple of days at least. There's a lot that needs to happen to make the storm happen for anyone, and models will be fighting over how to treat each ingredient for quite some time. I think it's mostly time to hang back and wait until late this week, especially since the storm keeps getting delayed further and further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I am completely confused... When checking the board at 6AM there was talk of a HECS from VA-ME, a nesis 4-5 event, a major hit for I95, model concensus, etc. Now as I read through the lunch-time posts, it's just the opposite... GFS and it's ensembles OTS, NGP a miss, GGEM a late phaser and essentially a miss for our area, UKIE OTS. What is going on? Can we have a met do an analysis and explain why the complete turn of events so quickly? It's not really a turn of events persay because, well, nothing has materialized yet. It's just what the models are showing. Come on man, you know the flip-flopping rule. Wait until tomorrow or Thursday and if still shows a consensus then I'd be a little worried. GGEM may be a little slower but has a nice hit for people PHL + North; which is rare to be displayed at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I am completely confused... When checking the board at 6AM there was talk of a HECS from VA-ME, a nesis 4-5 event, a major hit for I95, model concensus, etc. Now as I read through the lunch-time posts, it's just the opposite... GFS and it's ensembles OTS, NGP a miss, GGEM a late phaser and essentially a miss for our area, UKIE OTS. What is going on? Can we have a met do an analysis and explain why the complete turn of events so quickly? GGEM is a miss?..980 off the tip of Long Island..then it stalls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The 12z GFS and NAM runs really concern me. Also, I can't help but notice that the GFS ensembles have been gradually moving away from us with each cycle. My first thought was that the Atlantic was the problem, with the ocean low and orbiting shortwaves dragging down heights well east of the SE coast. But then I went frame by frame with the past several GFS, GGEM, and Euro runs, and I've changed my mind. The Atlantic, despite looking overbearing, isn't the main problem IMO. Nor are the upstream or downstream ridge axes. As others have said, it appears that subtle changes in the timing of the s/w interactions account for the critical differences. Somewhat paradoxically, it appears on the GFS charts that a slight slowing of the strong lead s/w induces a less favorable interaction with "northern stream" energy. With a faster initial speed, heights along the east coast rise sooner, and the lagging s/w energy carves out the backside of the trof. The Euro's (and to a lesser extent the GGEM's) even slower speed appears to allow for a 3rd barely distinguishable s/w to amplify the trof and dig it much further south. When I thought that the upstream cyclonic flow was the main suppressive culprit, I thought we were toast. But upon review I think that the timing of s/w interactions and their relative strengths will settle the issue (us usual). A roll of the dice. I think the problem is the depiction of a greater separation/lag between the lead shortwave and trailing northern stream energy. If the northern stream doesn't get involved quickly enough, the surface low will have already moved out to sea by the time it is captured at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 any word on the UKIE? Did I miss something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I am completely confused... When checking the board at 6AM there was talk of a HECS from VA-ME, a nesis 4-5 event, a major hit for I95, model concensus, etc. Now as I read through the lunch-time posts, it's just the opposite... GFS and it's ensembles OTS, NGP a miss, GGEM a late phaser and essentially a miss for our area, UKIE OTS. What is going on? Can we have a met do an analysis and explain why the complete turn of events so quickly? call your congressman and complain about day 5 model guidance. it's a scourge on society. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GGEM is a miss?..980 off the tip of Long Island..then it stalls? Its a miss for his area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the 12z euro has init. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Still has the storm. Good enough for me 5 days out. Agreed Jrodd. I can't think of a storm that there was some sort of "model consensus" four/five days out. The '93 super storm? Maybe. But even then, I'm sure if we had internet/model access, we would see that the details as to how much snow and for who weren't hammered out until late in the game. Right now most models show us getting some kind of storm. Is it a meager 1-3, 2-4 type event, or something larger? Could it be a miss altogether? Sure. But at this range, I don't expect the models to settle on a final consensus. Every storm I've ever tracked on Wright Weather, Eastern, and now American Wx, we go through this routine. Actually, it's part of the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Is anybody else watching the wv loop? I could be completely wrong, but it looks like our s/w is about 24 hours away from coming aboard the west coast. I don't buy all this slowing down by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 no that looks a lil further west. that looks like its going on shore at the tip of long island I haven't caught up in this thread so by now this is surely redundant, but last night's GGEM was more favorable than today's. The 12z starts well east and moves the surface low due north or even pulls it back toward the coast slightly. This recovery hits the NYC-BOS corridor pretty good (in fact it crushes much of SNE) but it's nothing like the classic blizzard track shown on the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Last couple of cycles 00z has been more threatening than 12z. Hoping that the Euro bucks the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Last couple of cycles 00z has been more threatening than 12z. Hoping that the Euro bucks the trend. If EURO goes OTS, it's time to panic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If EURO goes OTS, it's time to panic! I've actually got quite a good feeling about the EURO. However there is always the chance bridges will burn and children will cry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I haven't caught up in this thread so by now this is surely redundant, but last night's GGEM was more favorable than today's. The 12z starts well east and moves the surface low due north or even pulls it back toward the coast slightly. This recovery hits the NYC-BOS corridor pretty good (in fact it crushes much of SNE) but it's nothing like the classic blizzard track shown on the 0z. yes agreed, its not as good as 0z. Just one model run. People better distnace themselves with this threat cause if this ends up missing people are going to go insane. You should never go insane over the weather. Granted i want snow just as much as everyone else. I will never get bent out of shape over it, cause what can you do? You have no control over the weather or what not. Weather is a variable its going to act accordingly how it chooses neither one of us can do anything about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If EURO goes OTS, it's time to panic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 yes agreed, its not as good as 0z. Just one model run. People better distnace themselves with this threat cause if this ends up missing people are going to go insane. You should never go insane over the weather. Granted i want snow just as much as everyone else. I will never get bent out of shape over it, cause what can you do? You have no control over the weather or what not. Weather is a variable its going to act accordingly how it chooses neither one of us can do anything about it. I should pin this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The UK at Day 3 has a suppressed look similar to the NAM, but a chart overlay reveals a pretty close match to the 66hr GFS. The timing will surely have an impact on the result, but the 12z GFS isn't so hopelessly far off, so presumably the UK could recover too. It's also been a SE outlier in recent cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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