jm1220 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I'm glad I don't have much excitement invested in this one yet. Looks like a few chaotic days of model wars until hopefully we lock into something by the end of the week. I think it's about as likely we get a storm as we don't and it organizes too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It's encouraging to see that GGEM image. Looks like it has a hit just like last night. Like DT said, the GFS is waffling too much and shouldn't be trusted until 1-2 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GGEM says the GFS is on crack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looks like ggem recovered nicely! And now we're backing up in Monday Going to be a New Years' storm at this point Looks like it went slightly inside the BM...maybe 40/68.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It took a track right over the benchmark on that run i would presume? no that looks a lil further west. that looks like its going on shore at the tip of long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The GGEM is pretty much exactly 12 hours slower than its 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 every time I referesh the GGem shows me a different image( which has led to several small seizures), but I think I found the one I like. Great recovery!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I haven't been posting much since the last storm threat because I'm still trying to get over the fact that no matter what happens, (no storm-HECS) I will not be here for it. I am going on a family vacation which is awesome and w/e but I haven't missed a storm in the longest time. Either way, things look pretty good, I'm a little worried that the GFS is waffling at this juncture instead of actually keying on to a more exact track. GGEM looks like a nice hit though, and quite honestly I don't mind too much that the UKIE is ots because its performance in the last 2 storms can only be described as dreadful, when the other models were lets say very bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I'd pretty much lay down some bets now that since the GGEM is still showing colossal storm, the Euro will be quite nice as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 And now we're backing up in Monday Going to be a New Years' storm at this point Looks like it went slightly inside the BM...maybe 40/68.5 the precip starts sun morn, maybe sat night...hr120 sun 12z has it snowing from nyc south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The timing seems to fluctuate in this storm as well, i would figure it would be somewhere around the EURO's depiction, not as fast as the GFS and not as slow as the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 And now we're backing up in Monday Going to be a New Years' storm at this point Looks like it went slightly inside the BM...maybe 40/68.5 Right where us inland folks want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 here are the color maps hr 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Right where us inland folks want it i'd say that's where we all want it, except maybe the twin forks of long island where mixing could be introduced. gotta smell the rain to get the best snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the precip starts sun morn, maybe sat night...hr120 sun 12z has it snowing from nyc south A little before that. Hour 120, that precip alredy fell. Probably starts hour 118 in NYC and earlier south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I'd agree. I think the 12z GFS was probably a trash run with regards to delayed phasing of the streams. Huge difference in sfc reflection from its prior runs. The GFS ensembles have me a bit worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 here are the color maps hr 132 Again, for that strong a low and position, that seems like awfully low precip back here. I find it hard to believe a 978 at E LI will only give us about 0.1" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Still has the storm. Good enough for me 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Again, for that strong a low and position, that seems like awfully low precip back here. I find it hard to believe a 978 at E LI will only give us about 0.1" QPF. hm wrote something yesterday explain why the small precip field in this thread or the 0z thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 How many times has it been said to NOT worry about QPF at this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Agreed a low tightly wound like that at 978 mb would likely give alteast .75 inches or more.....qpf I'm not really too concerned about just wanna get tht storm track ironed out first I believe the qpf will increase greatly as we approach zero hour this storm Agreed. The precip shield will most likely expand as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looks like close to 25mm of precip for NYC/LI and CT. 1"+ of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 color maps hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Very happy to see the GGEM continue to show a hit....turns the corner just in time. The GFS can't seem to make up its mind and should be discounted as an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Could it be that the lower resolution of the GFS ensembles cause them to not see the phase that well, therefore forcing the storm out to sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I found HM's post...maybe we shouldn't be so confident in an expanding precip shield. This was posted in the main forum to address why the precip may be more compacted on the data: 1. Limited moisture when compared to the greats like anything from last year. It will pick up moisture for sure, but it won't be quite as intense as past HECS events. 2. Phasing job means sharp vorticity max that begins to get channelized toward the Mid Atlantic coast. This decreases PVA across much of the interior regions. 3. Atlantic moisture and frontogensis will focus the main lift over the coastal areas and ageostrophic flow would produce subsidence to the west of this feature. All this makes for a tight UVM center but an explosive one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the reason why the gem is slow bloomer is because the northern stream phases a little later than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I found HM's post...maybe we shouldn't be so confident in an expanding precip shield. I also heard Wes post somewhere about not having easterly winds and therefore not getting as much fetch from the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Still has the storm. Good enough for me 5 days out. in all my years on the weather boards, I can't recall a season where people live and feel each model run is the storm. 5-6 days out andonly thing confirmed or likely is the strom is going to move east from the west coast. these storms are not hammered down until 24-48 hours before the event typically. Roger that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Lets just hope the Euro keeps it together ! I'm excited and all but ... Been down this road before when a MECS/HECS has been on the radar...enough said... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.