tornadojay Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 i dont know- the upper air pattern on the GFS went into the toilet after hour 84 on this run.... Well, I guess I meant from a very general point of view.. I mean.. good ridge out west, digging, amplifying trof in the east. Relative to prior model runs, yes, it would appear that this is in the toilet compared to the perfect H500 maps... but if we saw this 12Z run as the very first run of a possible event coming, I don't think we would be too displeased with the potential of the overalls synoptic set-up.. we're now comparing it classic blizzard runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I do not see how the low is getting sheared out in this run. There is no PV that is suppressing it. It's not getting sheared out. It's not phasing and leading to the initial cyclogenesis off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If you take a look at the Blizzard of 78' s500mb, this storms 500mb pattern looks eerily similar. Except for the fact that there wasn't that big 500 low anchored practically over our heads. Some similarities out west, but not in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Gfs up to its usual crap with losing the storm? Wont worry if ggem and euro still come in nicely today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 How does this run compare to the 00z UKIE which from what I understand was also well OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It's not getting sheared out. It's not phasing and leading to the initial cyclogenesis off the coast. that's correct.. you want to look at the spreading or divergence of height contours on the east side of the trof. This will give you an indication of surface pressure falls. In this particular run, without a phasing, we had a more open and broad upper low so the height contours did not spread... until it hit the north atlantic where the vorticity maximum strengthened upon phasing, and really spread the height contours out. We saw this happen for the NYC area in the 00Z model run because we had a strong and tight upper level low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It diverges greatly from what the NAM was showing around that time frame. They were very similar up until that point. that was point...the base of the trough gets real rounded....i would think it needs to be sharp for it to shoot up the coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Gfs up to its usual crap with losing the storm? Wont worry if ggem and euro still come in nicely today. i wouldn't call this losing the storm. seems to me it is just a narrowly missed phase coupled with a trof that doesn't go negative enough in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well, I guess I meant from a very general point of view.. I mean.. good ridge out west, digging, amplifying trof in the east. Relative to prior model runs, yes, it would appear that this is in the toilet compared to the perfect H500 maps... but if we saw this 12Z run as the very first run of a possible event coming, I don't think we would be too displeased with the potential of the overalls synoptic set-up.. we're now comparing it classic blizzard runs. oooh i agree- at h84 on the 12Z GFS the h5 maps look real solid...then 12 hours later its just a rounded trough with no energy in it...what the hell happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Or it could be right, too, especially for PHL south. This run should have been farther west at the surface given the H5 pattern, but it still only would have been hit for NYC north. It's still very touch and go for the 40N south crowd. Agree 500mb closed off further north which is a killer down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Except for the fact that there wasn't that big 500 low anchored practically over our heads. Some similarities out west, but not in the east. not to mention the monster closed h5 low dropping in from canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hour 120 - it's way out to sea.. I don't buy it though given the upper level pattern. I'm not gonna go into panic mode Stupid question - why do we trust the upper level details more than the surface details? Do they verify better? I mean, why not say look it slides off the coast, the upper air is depicted faulty. Thanks! Trying to learn ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Stupid question - why do we trust the upper level details more than the surface details? Do they verify better? I mean, why not say look it slides off the coast, the upper air is depicted faulty. Thanks! Trying to learn ! There's no friction up there, for one thing. And it's always a good idea to look at the upper levels first. If they don't look like the surface, then something's probably wrong with the surface depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Similar system at hour 252. Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Or it could be right, too, especially for PHL south. This run should have been farther west at the surface given the H5 pattern, but it still only would have been hit for NYC north. It's still very touch and go for the 40N south crowd. I agree 100%. This pattern reeks of something again that would go OTS too far south and the loop back up to hit SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Similar system at hour 252. Yikes! It's been showing this for many runs now....but things look much warmer. Imagine if all the snow melted at once followed by widespread 2-4" rain? Repeat Feb-Mar 2010 major flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 UKIE is the only model that still hasnt shown a hit. Today's 12z is still out to sea. However, it has a stronger low and is west of its previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 heres the 12z gem.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 FYI- 12GGEM, out thru 96 doesnt have as sharp a trough, weaker and further north h7 low and very little precip in the SE associated with the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Low is very far south, don't know if it will do it on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 lol It seems everytime we've gotten close to a consenus with this event...BAM utter chaos breaksout I'm alot more worried about the GGEM not showing a hit than I am the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 lol It seems everytime we've gotten close to a consenus with this event...BAM utter chaos breaksout I'm alot more worried about the GGEM not showing a hit than I am the GFS. It's funny it seems like the models have been more consistent in the D 5-8 range than they have D 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 lol It seems everytime we've gotten close to a consenus with this event...BAM utter chaos breaksout I'm alot more worried about the GGEM not showing a hit than I am the GFS. What time does the 12z euro start?if that one starts showing a miss then ill get a little worried because that model has been as of now the most consistent upper levels and the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 oz gfs ens take a low off sc then head it ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I'd be more wary about the GGEM showing an ots solution than the GFS simply based off my experience in that the Euro and the GGEM come out more similar than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 oz gfs ens take a low off sc then head it ots You mean 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 gem hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 You mean 12z? yes sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It took a track right over the benchmark on that run i would presume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looks like ggem recovered nicely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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