Allsnow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hr 105 low over hse light snow from southern ny-dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hour 111, weak low pressure headed northeast off the NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hour 114, low pressure headed northeast, looks out to sea unfortunately.. but not buying it... we'll see.. hopefully a hiccup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hour 120 - it's way out to sea.. I don't buy it though given the upper level pattern. I'm not gonna go into panic mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hour 114, low pressure headed northeast, looks out to sea unfortunately.. but not buying it... we'll see.. hopefully a hiccup Is it because the trough just does not go negative enough....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 wow....ots 1004 mb low 300 miles east of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hour 120 - it's way out to sea.. I don't buy it though given the upper level pattern. I'm not gonna go into panic mode yes by looking at the upper level pattern leading up to hr 114 i really did not feel that would be the outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Is it because the trough just does not go negative enough....? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 From DT: waaaaay south on the 12z GFS run BIOG miss for i-95 cities at 114 zooming due east this is why I stay away from it past 72 hrs for SECS MECS HECS events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The northern stream s/w doesn't drop fast enough for a good phase on this run. Interestingly, everything else aloft looked better than 0z or 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Is it because the trough just does not go negative enough....? yes, I think so.. the closed low is a little more broad... however, the upper divergent pattern on the east side of the trof doesn't match well where the surface reflection is forming.. so although I think the upper level pattern supports a more eastern solution, I do not think it should be even close to where it is depicting it in my personal opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Holy flip-flop. These models are crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 yes, I think so.. the closed low is a little more broad... however, the upper divergent pattern on the east side of the trof doesn't match well where the surface reflection is forming.. so although I think the upper level pattern supports a more eastern solution, I do not think it should be even close to where it is depicting it in my personal opinion. Thanks....... For those thta care gfs has about .10+ from DC-Nyc for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I'm never speaking to the GFS again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I also think the phasing wasn't 100% there.. but it was extremely close. I see two distinct pieces of energy in the picture like 60 miles between each other. It eventually catches up in the north atlantic and then the thing bombs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Larry Cosgrove isn't buying the 12z GFS either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I also think the phasing wasn't 100% there.. but it was extremely close. I see two distinct pieces of energy in the picture like 60 miles between each other. It eventually catches up in the north atlantic and then the thing bombs out. Yup. It's a timing thing as much as anything else on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 OMG- the GFS is a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray8002 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 From Larry C.......Upper low and component blocking ridges with Christmas storm is amazing. Be careful of accepting the operational GFS which does not account for interaction of upper low and surface structure. In other words, I think more snow than what model is saying; wait on GGEM and ECMWF before making travel plans! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Holy flip-flop. These models are crazy! Meh, the 12z GFS yesterday was similar but not as suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Out of the reliable models, the GFS has been the most unstable with this event for days now. Unless the euro suddenly jumps ship I wouldn't put any stock into its run. It's really quite sad that its been this inconsistent...although this run does seem like its trying to play catchup with the euro...similar to yesterdays 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The GFS is too slow with the northern stream, and it does not time it correctly, if it did it would be quite a rapid cyclogeneis across the East. One cannot expect the GFS to hold serve every single time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Holy flip-flop. These models are crazy! seriously... I'll check back on Friday to see if this storm is a true treat.. Watching these models can make the sanest person nuts!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Thanks....... For those thta care gfs has about .10+ from DC-Nyc for the storm. Goes to show, even with the WORST possible solution, we still squeak out some accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yup. It's a timing thing as much as anything else on this run. yes, exactly.. I was just looping the 500 mb map again a couple of times and you could definitely see the two distinct pieces of energy.. they are so close to each other.. it really is a very close call between a perfect phase and a mis-timing. This could easily correct itself on future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hour 120 - it's way out to sea.. I don't buy it though given the upper level pattern. I'm not gonna go into panic mode i dont know- the upper air pattern on the GFS went into the toilet after hour 84 on this run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 yes, exactly.. I was just looping the 500 mb map again a couple of times and you could definitely see the two distinct pieces of energy.. they are so close to each other.. it really is a very close call between a perfect phase and a mis-timing. This could easily correct itself on future runs Or it could be right, too, especially for PHL south. This run should have been farther west at the surface given the H5 pattern, but it still only would have been hit for NYC north. It's still very touch and go for the 40N south crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Until, A)The GGEM/UK/EURO follow suit, and/or B)Our S/W enters the States This should be nothing to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 i dont know- the upper air pattern on the GFS went into the toilet after hour 84 on this run.... It diverges greatly from what the NAM was showing around that time frame. They were very similar up until that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I do not see how the low is getting sheared out in this run. There is no PV that is suppressing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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