Allsnow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I have the gfs paid site its out to 24 hrs.......like tony said i really would like to see this event move up in time...being stuck at 126 hrs plus has been annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think it would probably be best to realize this come tomorrow's run / early Thursday. There are still a lot of uncertainty to track, timing, phasing etc. All in good time . Yeah true. I do get tired of hearing people complaining about details run per run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah true. I do get tired of hearing people complaining about details run per run though. we should probably have a pinned thread devoted to a brief summarization of all the current model projections. It would probably be best if it was locked to avoid any ot tangents... just a page that is updated when guidance is. This would certainly help the casual reader and enable users with mobile devices to obtain the information much faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 we should probably have a pinned thread devoted to a brief summarization of all the current model projections. It would probably be best if it was locked to avoid any ot tangents... just a page that is updated when guidance is. This would certainly help the casual reader and enable users with mobile devices to obtain the information much faster. Given this would be going against my original thought/posting, I kinda agree and like this idea. Lock the thread, only update when necessary; occasionally letting a forecaster/met tag post in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 we should probably have a pinned thread devoted to a brief summarization of all the current model projections. It would probably be best if it was locked to avoid any ot tangents... just a page that is updated when guidance is. This would certainly help the casual reader and enable users with mobile devices to obtain the information much faster. i love this idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This is the possible threat that might rival all the big ones; ECMWF shows a classic H5 aloft with a very amped up shortwave trough within the longwave trough....And then it forms a huge closed low, and its SPEED is the reason why it just might be so massive. Slower speed is very conductive for a historic event *Given the QPF*, which will perhaps increase. I end this statement with a question: Did you honestly expect New York City to get over 26 inches of snow from the February 2006 Blizzard even with the QPF amounts that spat out? Classic Intense bandings will make this storm and with a sfc low in sub 980s will have a great baroclinic leaf assoicated with rapid cyclogenesis. Another question: Did even the Blizzard of 1996 had 2.5 to 3" QPF? I certainly believe not since that was a weak Nina, and yet PHL got 30.7" of snow. Do NOT fret about QPF this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It should be inside 100 hours now, at least in terms of light snow developing. Maybe 112-116 before the heavy snow would commence I have the gfs paid site its out to 24 hrs.......like tony said i really would like to see this event move up in time...being stuck at 126 hrs plus has been annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 we should probably have a pinned thread devoted to a brief summarization of all the current model projections. It would probably be best if it was locked to avoid any ot tangents... just a page that is updated when guidance is. This would certainly help the casual reader and enable users with mobile devices to obtain the information much faster. That would be nice. Anyone (preferably a Met or someone like earthlight) interested in making a "summary" thread? Something that people could post in that is a general update maybe once or twice a day that notes where model guidance is overall and some input in what you think? That would be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looks like JB's white Christmas might be a day late? John and Tom are sleeping! We need their phone numbers on hand for a wake-up call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looks like JB's white Christmas might be a day late? John and Tom are sleeping! We need their phone numbers on hand for a wake-up call! What we need is for only one person to do the analysis and the rest of us just read. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 At 30 s/w slightly further west. A tad more confluence in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hr 51 light preciep over the dakotas and tx....low pressure over CO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 At 42 s/w still a bit furtrher west and trying to close off. Confluence still a tad stronger in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The low looks to be around northern TX, and tapping into a the gulf moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Through 54 the southern shortwave is well southwest of the 6z position. Trending toward the Euro...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 54 still a bit further west and bit stornger confluence. piece of energy trying to dive down into our s/w from Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hr 60 low over the pandhandel of TX......preciep from tx-minn..... hgts rising ahead of the storm,.....confluence lifitng out of northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hr 72 low pressure just over dallas seems further south this run....hgts rise along the east coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 66 s/w much further west now and positive tilt, as opposed to a neutral tilt at 72 on 06Z Looks to be hanging back like Euro as the NAM did earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If you take a look at the Blizzard of 78' s500mb, this storms 500mb pattern looks eerily similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I'm comparing this run to last night's 0z Euro and so far both runs look extremely similar, except that the GFS has higher heights in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The 12z GFS and 12z NAM are in agreement with the shortwave positioning through 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hr 81 we are starting to dig.......good snowstorm for MO and st louis...low pressure in LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If you take a look at the Blizzard of 78' s500mb, this storms 500mb pattern looks eerily similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hr 93 broad area of low pressure in the se states......northern stream is phasing in...looks like this run will do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hour 99 has a closed low over eastern michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 105 - low pressure forming off the carolina coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 90 less confluence which should allow this to come a bit further north, but it's taking its time getting organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 106 - low pressure forming off the carolina coast. Take it away tornadojay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hr 93 broad area of low pressure in the se states......northern stream is phasing in...looks like this run will do it At 90, the low is over central AL, where it was over eastern TN with the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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