am19psu Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Going through the models this morning, I would say the GEM is the middle of the road synoptic solution between the GFS and the Euro based on the s/w evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Amazing how most of the models are in agreement at this point for a major east coast storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 John, I'm not 'concerned' yet either, but the fact several individual ens members and even a couple models show this scenario, it's certainly in the back of my mind. The fact that the major global models and the Euro ensembles support a snowstorm is a huge signal at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah I agree, I wouldn't bother with the DGEX, it is a big pile. For now the global models are the only ones worth analyzing. As others have already said, please continue posting here. Good to have you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The fact that the major global models and the Euro ensembles support a snowstorm is a huge signal at this range. Agree, now it's looking at each run and watch them zig zag 50-100 miles in any direction. Model madness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 As others have already said, please continue posting here. Good to have you. AGREED!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 JMA was a miss yesterday... maybe it will jump on board today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think I've read here that we've never had a Miller A storm in a strong Nina. Ever. People really need to remember that. Not to mention look how progressive this last storm ended up being and it scooted right off the SE coast. Keep expectations low is the sensible thing at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think I've read here that we've never had a Miller A storm in a strong Nina. Ever. People really need to remember that. Not to mention look how progressive this last storm ended up being and it scooted right off the SE coast. Keep expectations low is the sensible thing at this point. We've also never had blocking like this. Ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think I've read here that we've never had a Miller A storm in a strong Nina. Ever. People really need to remember that. Not to mention look how progressive this last storm ended up being and it scooted right off the SE coast. Keep expectations low is the sensible thing at this point. However the current pattern we are in is not a typical La Nina pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 We've also never had blocking like this. Ever. True. But it also seems that these complicated phase set ups never work well for us here in PHL generally. Hate having to rely on the phase to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 FYP It would be nice to actually close the gap between model forecast time and event time, it seems that for every sounding run the last couple of days, the event gets pushed back at least 6 hours. At this rate it may be the entirely the Day after Christmas storm. This has alot more going for it than the other had on its best day, but the clinching run for me (unless there is a special ACARs mission planned) will be the 12z run Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It would be nice to actually close the gap between model forecast time and event time, it seems that for every sounding run the last couple of days, the event gets pushed back at least 6 hours. At this rate it may be the entirely the Day after Christmas storm. This has alot more going for it than the other had on its best day, but the clinching run for me (unless there is a special ACARs mission planned) will be the 12z run Thursday. with phase jobs, it may not be a done deal until 24-48 hours before the storm. See March 2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allman15 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It would be nice to actually close the gap between model forecast time and event time, it seems that for every sounding run the last couple of days, the event gets pushed back at least 6 hours. At this rate it may be the entirely the Day after Christmas storm. This has alot more going for it than the other had on its best day, but the clinching run for me (unless there is a special ACARs mission planned) will be the 12z run Thursday. thanks....this does seem like its been tracked for a few weeks............Thanks to everbody who is giving the PLAY BY PLAY on the models runs........this THREAD is better than the Main forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It would be nice to actually close the gap between model forecast time and event time, it seems that for every sounding run the last couple of days, the event gets pushed back at least 6 hours. At this rate it may be the entirely the Day after Christmas storm. This has alot more going for it than the other had on its best day, but the clinching run for me (unless there is a special ACARs mission planned) will be the 12z run Thursday. I hope it is not 126 hrs. out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 with phase jobs, it may not be a done deal until 24-48 hours before the storm. See March 2001 Ji, Someone hacked into your account True, but by that point all of the players are over North America (well unless that's been pushed back too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I would have loved to have had access to boards like this tracking that storm. I really had nothing to go by other than accuweather and what local forecasters were saying. I still remember coming out of a movie late at night on Friday I believe and hearing " it may change to rain from the city east" ...literally hours after saying 20-30" over a 3 day period. With the shear magntitude of the storm and the population it affected it has to be the greatest bust in history. with phase jobs, it may not be a done deal until 24-48 hours before the storm. See March 2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 NAM out to 36hr. Low in North Atlantic seems to be getting out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 We've also never had blocking like this. Ever. Also isn't your typical strong la nina (I'm new at this so please don't knock me if I'm a bit off lol) consist of a se ridge and blocking that isn't ideal at all and storms have a tendency to cut to the lakes rather than hit the east coast with snow correct? The blocking is incredible with this upcoming storm for the pattern were in for a strong nina year for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It would be nice to actually close the gap between model forecast time and event time, it seems that for every sounding run the last couple of days, the event gets pushed back at least 6 hours. At this rate it may be the entirely the Day after Christmas storm. This has alot more going for it than the other had on its best day, but the clinching run for me (unless there is a special ACARs mission planned) will be the 12z run Thursday. Yeah. When you look at the 0z Euro ensemble members, you can see a lot of wiggle room here, both west and east. The spag charts showed inland cutters, solutions similar to the ops, and OTS specials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12z NAM is slower through 66, hanging the southern shortwave back. Obviously way different than 6z in the handling of the southern shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 NAM @ 84 is euro-esque, farther south and slower, would be good run if extrapolated I would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12z NAM is slower through 66, hanging the southern shortwave back. Obviously way different than 6z in the handling of the southern shortwave. Just for some clarification for a weenie...are we hoping for a slower or faster solution. Just from reading this board, I would imagine slower to allow phasing to occur? Is this correct? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Just for some clarification for a weenie...are we hoping for a slower or faster solution. Just from reading this board, I would imagine slower to allow phasing to occur? Is this correct? Thanks. Your are correct on the first part - however for it digging deeper south, could someone else clarify this? I'm a little hazy on this one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The nam definitely looks more like the euro than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I'm seeing a bunch of posts analyzing models run-by-run hour-by-hour. Anyone interested in doing a short summary of where we stand overall at this point? It would be appreciated to all those not interested in reading through pages of posts talking about "oh it is south. but this ensemble is north. this one is phasing. etc". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I'm seeing a bunch of posts analyzing models run-by-run hour-by-hour. Anyone interested in doing a short summary of where we stand overall at this point? It would be appreciated to all those not interested in reading through pages of posts talking about "oh it is south. but this ensemble is north. this one is phasing. etc". I think it would probably be best to realize this come tomorrow's run / early Thursday. There are still a lot of uncertainty to track, timing, phasing etc. All in good time . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 True. But it also seems that these complicated phase set ups never work well for us here in PHL generally. Hate having to rely on the phase to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS just initialized. Waiting for Tombo to wake up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS just initialized. Waiting for Tombo to wake up. Glad u can join us Zelocita Weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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