Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,611
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

NYC/PHL: December 24-27th Potential


earthlight

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 992
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I think I've read here that we've never had a Miller A storm in a strong Nina. Ever. People really need to remember that. Not to mention look how progressive this last storm ended up being and it scooted right off the SE coast. Keep expectations low is the sensible thing at this point.

We've also never had blocking like this. Ever.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think I've read here that we've never had a Miller A storm in a strong Nina. Ever. People really need to remember that. Not to mention look how progressive this last storm ended up being and it scooted right off the SE coast. Keep expectations low is the sensible thing at this point.

However the current pattern we are in is not a typical La Nina pattern.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FYP

It would be nice to actually close the gap between model forecast time and event time, it seems that for every sounding run the last couple of days, the event gets pushed back at least 6 hours. At this rate it may be the entirely the Day after Christmas storm. This has alot more going for it than the other had on its best day, but the clinching run for me (unless there is a special ACARs mission planned) will be the 12z run Thursday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It would be nice to actually close the gap between model forecast time and event time, it seems that for every sounding run the last couple of days, the event gets pushed back at least 6 hours. At this rate it may be the entirely the Day after Christmas storm. This has alot more going for it than the other had on its best day, but the clinching run for me (unless there is a special ACARs mission planned) will be the 12z run Thursday.

with phase jobs, it may not be a done deal until 24-48 hours before the storm. See March 2001

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It would be nice to actually close the gap between model forecast time and event time, it seems that for every sounding run the last couple of days, the event gets pushed back at least 6 hours. At this rate it may be the entirely the Day after Christmas storm. This has alot more going for it than the other had on its best day, but the clinching run for me (unless there is a special ACARs mission planned) will be the 12z run Thursday.

thanks....this does seem like its been tracked for a few weeks............Thanks to everbody who is giving the PLAY BY PLAY on the models runs........this THREAD is better than the Main forum :thumbsup:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It would be nice to actually close the gap between model forecast time and event time, it seems that for every sounding run the last couple of days, the event gets pushed back at least 6 hours. At this rate it may be the entirely the Day after Christmas storm. This has alot more going for it than the other had on its best day, but the clinching run for me (unless there is a special ACARs mission planned) will be the 12z run Thursday.

I hope it is not 126 hrs. out :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would have loved to have had access to boards like this tracking that storm. I really had nothing to go by other than accuweather and what local forecasters were saying. I still remember coming out of a movie late at night on Friday I believe and hearing " it may change to rain from the city east" ...literally hours after saying 20-30" over a 3 day period. With the shear magntitude of the storm and the population it affected it has to be the greatest bust in history.

with phase jobs, it may not be a done deal until 24-48 hours before the storm. See March 2001

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We've also never had blocking like this. Ever.

Also isn't your typical strong la nina (I'm new at this so please don't knock me if I'm a bit off lol) consist of a se ridge and blocking that isn't ideal at all and storms have a tendency to cut to the lakes rather than hit the east coast with snow correct? The blocking is incredible with this upcoming storm for the pattern were in for a strong nina year for sure

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It would be nice to actually close the gap between model forecast time and event time, it seems that for every sounding run the last couple of days, the event gets pushed back at least 6 hours. At this rate it may be the entirely the Day after Christmas storm. This has alot more going for it than the other had on its best day, but the clinching run for me (unless there is a special ACARs mission planned) will be the 12z run Thursday.

Yeah. When you look at the 0z Euro ensemble members, you can see a lot of wiggle room here, both west and east. The spag charts showed inland cutters, solutions similar to the ops, and OTS specials.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z NAM is slower through 66, hanging the southern shortwave back.

Obviously way different than 6z in the handling of the southern shortwave.

Just for some clarification for a weenie...are we hoping for a slower or faster solution. Just from reading this board, I would imagine slower to allow phasing to occur? Is this correct? Thanks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just for some clarification for a weenie...are we hoping for a slower or faster solution. Just from reading this board, I would imagine slower to allow phasing to occur? Is this correct? Thanks.

Your are correct on the first part - however for it digging deeper south, could someone else clarify this? I'm a little hazy on this one as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm seeing a bunch of posts analyzing models run-by-run hour-by-hour. Anyone interested in doing a short summary of where we stand overall at this point? It would be appreciated to all those not interested in reading through pages of posts talking about "oh it is south. but this ensemble is north. this one is phasing. etc".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm seeing a bunch of posts analyzing models run-by-run hour-by-hour. Anyone interested in doing a short summary of where we stand overall at this point? It would be appreciated to all those not interested in reading through pages of posts talking about "oh it is south. but this ensemble is north. this one is phasing. etc".

I think it would probably be best to realize this come tomorrow's run / early Thursday. There are still a lot of uncertainty to track, timing, phasing etc. All in good time :).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...