tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 sub 1000 low just east of orf hr 114 dc continuous lgt to mod precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 post in here anytime you would like. Would love to hear your analysis on upcoming events...One question, im sure you saw the 0z euro. What is causing that storm to be on the beaches of the gulf of mexico? Good question. As silly as this honestly may sound though, I don't find the exact southward placement of the PV terribly important, and the CMC showed that in some ways regarding the eventual phase and CAA pattern after the phase. The trough will develop under either solution (far S ECM or farther N CMC). The PV acts to incite enough cyclogenesis to develop stronger CAA and a deeper trough. Too strong of a PV and you get a 0Z GFS type solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 CCB development at 120...it's trying to slip southeast of it's 00z run but I am not concerned..the general consistency is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Good question. As silly as this honestly may sound though, I don't find the exact southward placement of the PV terribly important, and the CMC showed that in some ways regarding the eventual phase and CAA pattern after the phase. The trough will develop under either solution (far S ECM or farther N CMC). The PV acts to incite enough cyclogenesis to develop stronger CAA and a deeper trough. Too strong of a PV and you get a 0Z GFS type solution. interesting, cause i know hm was thinking it was going to miss the phase. At one pt the low was on the beach at panama city thats nuts. The ukie is even further south, which would prob lead to its ots solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Really wacky developments aloft after the phase. Still brings the surface low very far north...but the CCB doesn't get as far NW. Surface low still tracks just southeast of the BM. Not a bad run at all. I'm falling asleep at the computer...goodnight all..think snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 alright im peacing out...ill see you guys in about 6 hours for the 12z gfs...gn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 interesting, cause i know hm was thinking it was going to miss the phase. At one pt the low was on the beach at panama city thats nuts. The ukie is even further south, which would prob lead to its ots solution. Yeah I see your point. In that case, a missed phase would be bad, but I don't see that happening here. I thought maybe you were worried of a PV that was too far N. Looks like 6Z GFS sticking to its guns and suggesting the PV is strong enough to shift the CAA eastward. Still not buying this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 interesting, cause i know hm was thinking it was going to miss the phase. At one pt the low was on the beach at panama city thats nuts. The ukie is even further south, which would prob lead to its ots solution. Internet went out again lol..... didnt March 1993 phase SW of the west coast of Fla-- SW of Tampa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 gfs looks like an outlier compared to euro and ggem but it still gives DC some snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 I felt really bad for you last week with all the time you sacrificed for that non event. Hope things pay off this coming weekend Thanks dude...I hope you are buried for weeks too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 There are a couple things going against the GFS. One thing is moist cyclogenesis across the plains. All models have a somewhat deep PV ejecting into the plains with rapid and moist cyclogenesis. This type of moist cyclogenesis lends itself to a ton of latent heat release through the atmospheric column and rapid weaking of a PV and/or S/W within the flow. Height rises are inevitable and an eventual cutoff or near cutoff would seem more likely given the diffuse height field holding this mess together. Either way, farther S or a weaker PV, both would not be a good solution for a northern track since the PV either would not be strong enough to incite cyclogenesis capable of altering the low level CAA eastward or it would result in a slower propagating PV and a later phase. In other words, I am still not buying the GFS. And I obviously have no regional bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 From HPC this morning (seems to agree with you about discounting the GFS and going with a tweaked EURO): THE ECMWF TRACK OF THE EAST COAST CYCLONE WOULD HAVE HIGH IMPACT OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM WASHINGTON TO BOSTON. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE SLOW CRAWL OF THE MATURE STORM TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BENCHMARK SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THE DAY OR TWO AFTER CHRISTMAS. THIS PHASE OF THE STORM WOULD COME ABOUT ONLY IF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ABLE TO CLOSE OFF...WHICH IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE IN THE STRONG BLOCKING REGIME. WILL MANUALLY MOVE THE CENTER ALONG SLIGHTLY FASTER LATE DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 THAN THE RAW ECMWF RUN WOULD INDICATE...BASED ON THE WEIGHT OF THE ENSEMBLES AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 From HPC this morning (seems to agree with you about discounting the GFS and going with a tweaked EURO): THE ECMWF TRACK OF THE EAST COAST CYCLONE WOULD HAVE HIGH IMPACT OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM WASHINGTON TO BOSTON. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE SLOW CRAWL OF THE MATURE STORM TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BENCHMARK SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THE DAY OR TWO AFTER CHRISTMAS. THIS PHASE OF THE STORM WOULD COME ABOUT ONLY IF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ABLE TO CLOSE OFF...WHICH IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE IN THE STRONG BLOCKING REGIME. WILL MANUALLY MOVE THE CENTER ALONG SLIGHTLY FASTER LATE DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 THAN THE RAW ECMWF RUN WOULD INDICATE...BASED ON THE WEIGHT OF THE ENSEMBLES AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS It is going to be interesting. The GFS is trying to hold its ground and it can be a little unnerving, but a near or fully detached PV seems far more likely to me than what the GFS suggests. The intermountain W is void of baroclinity and the plains are amped with moisture and a strong baroclinic zone ready to weaken any weak/migratory lows passing over them through rapid height rises owing to moist latent heat processes/precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Thank you Tombo. I love the map! a good 7 - 10" for ABE, PHL - a little more for NYC though? Don't forget about the ratios, Looks to me like the ratios will be much higher inland. Maybe 15:1 or higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Good Morning everyone! I'm new here, so I may need a little help. I think that it's a good idea to group what the 0Z models show. 0Z GGEM- 978 mb Low just South of LI 0Z GFS- Similar to GGEM 0Z Euro- Slower than the GFS, but bombs out along the Jersey Coast 0Z Ukie- OTS 0Z KMA- OTS DId I miss anything? I hope to have a great time at these boards! -Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Really wacky developments aloft after the phase. Still brings the surface low very far north...but the CCB doesn't get as far NW. Surface low still tracks just southeast of the BM. Not a bad run at all. I'm falling asleep at the computer...goodnight all..think snow. I just woke up about 45 min. ago and John your just going to bed... get some rest.. we need you alert . Thanks to you and Tom for all the great info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 So we have the Euro, GGEM, and GFS on our side, with the KMA, Ukie, and DGEX out to sea. I like those odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 So we have the Euro, GGEM, and GFS on our side, with the KMA, Ukie, and DGEX out to sea. I like those odds. Well it shouldn't be a huge surprise the DGEX is OTS since it is begins at (I believe) 84 hours using a GFS initialization at that hour. It will mostly look like the GFS with NAM dynamics after 84. Someone can correct me if I am wrong here. Either way, I agree, going against the DGEX and KMA is usually a positive thing if one wants (or believes) the opposite solution to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well it shouldn't be a huge surprise the DGEX is OTS since it is begins at (I believe) 84 hours using a GFS initialization at that hour. It will mostly look like the GFS with NAM dynamics after 84. DGEX has had extreme variability. To my knowledge, the 6Z DGEX this morning doesn't even have a well organized storm. The 18Z DGEX from last night showed this: Now the 6Z shows a weak storm OTS. Can we trust either scenario? No way. Plus, the DGEX is very unreliable, and is likely to be one of the worst computer models. -Snowlover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The basic rule of thumb, is that any computer model that relies on another separate model to produce model maps, is automatically bad, and it reflects in the DGEX's performances. -Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 DGEX has had extreme variability. To my knowledge, the 6Z DGEX this morning doesn't even have a well organized storm. The 18Z DGEX from last night showed this: Now the 6Z shows a weak storm OTS. Can we trust either scenario? No way. Plus, the DGEX is very unreliable, and is likely to be one of the worst computer models. -Snowlover Yeah I agree, I wouldn't bother with the DGEX, it is a big pile. For now the global models are the only ones worth analyzing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 0z NOGAPS just barely misses... http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 And this is still 6 days away. Killin me. Seems like it has been 6 days away for a week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 0z NOGAPS just barely misses... http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml NOGAPS is also another one of those inconsistant models. Check out 12Z from yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 CCB development at 120...it's trying to slip southeast of it's 00z run but I am not concerned..the general consistency is amazing. John, I'm not 'concerned' yet either, but the fact several individual ens members and even a couple models show this scenario, it's certainly in the back of my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 gfs looks like an outlier compared to euro and ggem but it still gives DC some snow lol Whatcha doin in this here thread?? UKIE/NGP/KMA/DGEX vs GGEM/EURO (GFS in the middle somewhere) Interesting..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Whatcha doin in this here thread?? UKIE/NGP/KMA/DGEX vs GGEM/EURO (GFS in the middle somewhere) Interesting..... FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 FYP NGP and DGEX don't even have a storm, unless I'm looking at old cached data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 NGP and DGEX don't even have a storm, unless I'm looking at old cached data? No, I just mean from an operational forecasting perspective, those three models should have zero influence on your decision making process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 No, I just mean from an operational forecasting perspective, those three models should have zero influence on your decision making process. And besides, I think the 0z GFS op is leaning more towards the GGEM/EURO solutions rather than staying somewhere in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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