SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 QPF a bit sketchy 5 to 6 days out, if this were to varify I suspect qpf would look similar to past 970ish storms, plus lack of STJ in Nina will cut some back. Regardless and huge HUGE plus is 3 out 4 of the major globals have this 5 days out. QPF is underdone in this range and often is overdone in the short range....often times the model QPFs in the 36-60 hour range are the most accurate, inside of that time the NAM tends to be very overdone and quite often the GFS as well....the Euro personally I don't ever like for QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If the GGEM were a perfect prog, and it overdeepens everything toward the later time periods, Long Island would flip to rain. The GGEM is representing its typical bias and the NOGAPS is doing the same on their 00Z runs....the GEM would keep NYC snow but would cause dryslot concerns verbatim....also be wary since the GEM has been perhaps the most inconsistent the last 2-3 days with a couple of flip flops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 ugh, i can't believe im still up...o well lets see what the gfs does here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 ugh, i can't believe im still up...o well lets see what the gfs does here lol You better have checked out the moon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 ugh, i can't believe im still up...o well lets see what the gfs does here lol Might as well go to bed now, I wouldn't worry what a 06Z run shows right now at Day 5....I just woke up 20 minutes ago after going to sleep after I saw the 00Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 You better have checked out the moon! yea i went out and looked at it then came back and watched tv till 6z gfs, then bed till 12z runs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Might as well go to bed now, I wouldn't worry what a 06Z run shows right now at Day 5....I just woke up 20 minutes ago after going to sleep after I saw the 00Z NAM. well i really have nothing to do since im off. Go to bed after the 6z gfs then wake up for 12z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 You better have checked out the moon! The moon has been beautiful tonight....very interesting eclipse with a pinkish aura at the start and then basically the darkest moon silhouette I had ever "seen.' Followed a great moonrise tonight while out for a jog as the sun set to the west over the Hudson R. Some very pretty scenery lately here, definitely helped out by the low sun, biting NW winds, and patchy snow cover. 27.4/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 The moon has been beautiful tonight....very interesting eclipse with a pinkish aura at the start and then basically the darkest moon silhouette I had ever "seen.' Followed a great moonrise tonight while out for a jog as the sun set to the west over the Hudson R. Some very pretty scenery lately here, definitely helped out by the low sun, biting NW winds, and patchy snow cover. 27.4/18 Strongly agree. I see no reason to sleep when I have such beautiful displays ongoing outside my window. I can sleep on the average day. This is not one of them. There's something about looking at the moon, and I've watched it during this entire eclipse, it's almost an out of body experience. Truly puts things in perspective in every sense of the word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 alright lets see what the 6z gfs cooks up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The moon has been beautiful tonight....very interesting eclipse with a pinkish aura at the start and then basically the darkest moon silhouette I had ever "seen.' Followed a great moonrise tonight while out for a jog as the sun set to the west over the Hudson R. Some very pretty scenery lately here, definitely helped out by the low sun, biting NW winds, and patchy snow cover. 27.4/18 That's interesting-- usually we get really dark lunar eclipses when there are volcanic ejecta in the atmosphere..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Strongly agree. I see no reason to sleep when I have such beautiful displays ongoing outside my window. I can sleep on the average day. This is not one of them. There's something about looking at the moon, and I've watched it during this entire eclipse, it's almost an out of body experience. Truly puts things in perspective in every sense of the word. Hopefully the 6z GFS can put things even more in perspective since I'm up at this hour anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Strongly agree. I see no reason to sleep when I have such beautiful displays ongoing outside my window. I can sleep on the average day. This is not one of them. There's something about looking at the moon, and I've watched it during this entire eclipse, it's almost an out of body experience. Truly puts things in perspective in every sense of the word. Exactly-- plus timing also helps I got my sleep in between 7 PM and midnight lol. Got on here just in time to see the 0z models and make plans to see the eclipse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 dang, the winds held the low temps pretty good tonight. Forecast low was 23 sitting at 28 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Hopefully the 6z GFS can put things even more in perspective since I'm up at this hour anyway. Biggest 06z model run of the year since I started watching 06z runs which is this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Strongly agree. I see no reason to sleep when I have such beautiful displays ongoing outside my window. I can sleep on the average day. This is not one of them. There's something about looking at the moon, and I've watched it during this entire eclipse, it's almost an out of body experience. Truly puts things in perspective in every sense of the word. i got this feeling as well while i was watching it..Just purely awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Through 30 hrs I don't see any major changes..possibly a bit more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 looks like the ridge out ahead of the shortwave is a little stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 looks like the ridge out ahead of the shortwave is a little stronger. Yeah, nothing too dramatic though. The shortwave might be a hair slower. Can't believe we're analyzing the 30 hr 06z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah, nothing too dramatic though. The shortwave might be a hair slower. Can't believe we're analyzing the 30 hr 06z GFS. what else you gonna do at 445am lol....ill tell you one thing. If we get this snow and we get a clear night with no wind, wowsers, i could see temps in the single digits in the burbs and mid to low teens for the cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Definitely digging more off the coast of CA this run. What a great upper air setup even at 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah, nothing too dramatic though. The shortwave might be a hair slower. Can't believe we're analyzing the 30 hr 06z GFS. Haha, we're like microanalyzing it! Its still much better than that one dude who has like 2 posts and kept asking DT and HM in the main 0z thread if central long island would get rain or snow and if they would get a blizzard 5 days out. That was kind of embarassing and I half expected someone to blow up on him lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 what else you gonna do at 445am lol....ill tell you one thing. If we get this snow and we get a clear night with no wind, wowsers, i could see temps in the single digits in the burbs and mid to low teens for the cities That is pretty cold, but we've seen that before. Heck, I remember seeing highs in the upper teens in late December back a few years ago-- but no snowcover It's been a few years though since we've been consistently this cold in December. It's too bad Dec 1 wasnt November 31 lol, because that was the last of the really mild days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 through 48 s/w stronger ridge out ahead stronger, more amplified solution thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 lol ji, what the heck are you doing up now lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 That is pretty cold, but we've seen that before. Heck, I remember seeing highs in the upper teens in late December back a few years ago-- but no snowcover It's been a few years though since we've been consistently this cold in December. It's too bad Dec 1 wasnt November 31 lol, because that was the last of the really mild days. the neg departures for this month would be sick if we didnt have that +10 the first day of dec. Even with that i think phl is running -5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 6z baby then hitting the gym and going to work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 6z baby then hitting the gym and going to work! I'm off tomorrow...so it's 06z then sleep and gym. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 6z baby then hitting the gym and going to work! hahahaha, sounds good man. im going to bed after this 6z gfs run...so far it looks pretty good through 48 more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the neg departures for this month would be sick if we didnt have that +10 the first day of dec. Even with that i think phl is running -5 I know lol, it would be like Dec 1989 kind of departures..... hopefully better in terms of snow. If you look at the profile for Dec 1989, its pretty crazy-- mean temp of 26 degrees and like 1 inch of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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