mattinpa Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 ok greatest to least gray 1.25-1.5 yellow 1-1.25 pink .75-1 green .5-.75 blue .25-.5 Thanks, Tom - translates to about 8-10" for PHL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 ok greatest to least gray 1.25-1.5 yellow 1-1.25 pink .75-1 green .5-.75 blue .25-.5 One thing you can tell about this map is that the orientation of the QPF shows the intensity of the storm and you can overlay the isobars without even looking at that map to see what kind of wind will be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 again- why is the qpf so low???? that will be eventually be a worry- so why not start now ok greatest to least gray 1.25-1.5 yellow 1-1.25 pink .75-1 green .5-.75 blue .25-.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 ok greatest to least gray 1.25-1.5 yellow 1-1.25 pink .75-1 green .5-.75 blue .25-.5 Thank you Tombo. I love the map! a good 7 - 10" for ABE, PHL - a little more for NYC though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Thanks, Tom - translates to about 8-10" for PHL? Probably more with how cold it will be the ratios will probably be 14:1 to 16:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Thanks, Tom - translates to about 8-10" for PHL? I would think that there's potential for higher ratios than 10-1 if 850's are as cold as they're looking like they could be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 HM and DT going crazy in the main thread lol. Comparisons to Jan 1996 being thrown around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Epic blizzard on the Euro. One thing that I don't get is why is the Euro so much slower than the GFS? Euro has this storm coming in on Sunday, while the GFS has it coming in on Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 again- why is the qpf so low???? that will be eventually be a worry- so why not start now Don't worry about QPF at this stage. Even if you do, take an average of the GGEM/Euro/GFS and you come up with ~1.25" or so liquid, which is still a massive snowstorm for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Relax Ace-- if this storm gets as intense as progged--- that area of yellow over south Jersey will probably be shoved northwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Epic blizzard on the Euro. One thing that I don't get is why is the Euro so much slower than the GFS? Euro has this storm coming in on Sunday, while the GFS has it coming in on Saturday morning. I believe it is further south initially and is cut off from the flow for a bit, and thus it might be slower the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Don't worry about QPF at this stage. Even if you do, take an average of the GGEM/Euro/GFS and you come up with ~1.25" or so liquid, which is still a massive snowstorm for most. The qpf with most of our great snowstorms was probably progged to be south of us, but the intensity of the storm shoved it north. IOW, we'd rather have this scenario than one with a mix line close to us-- those rarely work out in our favor lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 looks like it really comes the day after Christmas poor JB, poor JB lol I think of him as "Beeks" in the movie Trading Places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 looks like another shot of snow post 240....then the cold comes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 QPF a bit sketchy 5 to 6 days out, if this were to varify I suspect qpf would look similar to past 970ish storms, plus lack of STJ in Nina will cut some back. Regardless and huge HUGE plus is 3 out 4 of the major globals have this 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The Euro is most likely a bit slow, but yes, the heart of the storm looks to be on the 26th, but the storm will likely begin a couple of hours either side of midnight Christmas night. looks like it really comes the day after Christmas poor JB, poor JB lol I think of him as "Beeks" in the movie Trading Places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The qpf with most of our great snowstorms was probably progged to be south of us, but the intensity of the storm shoved it north. IOW, we'd rather have this scenario than one with a mix line close to us-- those rarely work out in our favor lol. There's still quite a lot that can go wrong and I want to be skeptical as possible before uncorking the champagne after the last whiff of a storm. I like the remarkable consistency on at least a significant threat at this juncture (which the last storm didn't have, some models would have it and others not, but never a unified solution like this), but if the Western ridge begins to flatten on future runs or the current low in the Gulf of Maine sits for days and doesn't get out of the way, it could become suppressed and go out to sea like the UKMET tonight had. I really want to see this S/W progged to slam into CA in 48 hours properly sampled and the other features mentioned to stay favorable, and get this threat to within 96 hours. It does seem like it keeps getting pushed back, and it's just hard for me to get excited at a 108-144 hour storm in a year like this. Hopefully it does happen though, and I agree that the precip is likely underdone if the storm is really going to bomb like that off the NJ coast and slow down. That's a classic 12-18" if not more storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 There's still quite a lot that can go wrong and I want to be skeptical as possible before uncorking the champagne after the last whiff of a storm. I like the remarkable consistency on at least a significant threat at this juncture (which the last storm didn't have, some models would have it and others not, but never a unified solution like this), but if the Western ridge begins to flatten on future runs or the current low in the Gulf of Maine sits for days and doesn't get out of the way, it could become suppressed and go out to sea like the UKMET tonight had. I really want to see this S/W progged to slam into CA in 48 hours properly sampled and the other features mentioned to stay favorable, and get this threat to within 96 hours. It does seem like it keeps getting pushed back, and it's just hard for me to get excited at a 108-144 hour storm in a year like this. Hopefully it does happen though, and I agree that the precip is likely underdone if the storm is really going to bomb like that off the NJ coast and slow down. That's a classic 12-18" if not more storm for us. Yeah, especially after the last storm, we dont want a big let down lol. Its annoying to see these storms slam into CA and then go nowhere lol. Is that where our STJ is lol? Im sure they would love for us to take it off their hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This was posted in the main forum to address why the precip may be more compacted on the data: 1. Limited moisture when compared to the greats like anything from last year. It will pick up moisture for sure, but it won't be quite as intense as past HECS events. 2. Phasing job means sharp vorticity max that begins to get channelized toward the Mid Atlantic coast. This decreases PVA across much of the interior regions. 3. Atlantic moisture and frontogensis will focus the main lift over the coastal areas and ageostrophic flow would produce subsidence to the west of this feature. All this makes for a tight UVM center but an explosive one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 You know some of these post I read is worth paying for on the entertainment value alone, LOL, I sit here and piss my pants some days on some of the complete nonsense written here while others are on top of there game for example EARTHLIGHT which brings something to the table everyday here while others have in clue what there talking about, Names withheld to protect the innocent. Anyway, yes the 0Z models look great but for example the Canadian run I analyzed this evening tells me if it verified there is mixing problems especially in NYC area proper. The Storm does have the potential to be either a MECS or HECS and I agree with one poster that says it's early and almost anything can go wrong at this point, We gotten screwed so many times thus far this season that I won't be happy until it's snowing here and with the remarks " SNOW INCREASED 1 " on the nearby airport Metars. Enjoy this folks it's not every year we can sit here and talk about a real snow threat around Christmas day I have seen plenty in my day where it rains or it's near 50 degrees, Also please don't get me wrong I don't mean to piss in anyone's cornflakes it's just a reality check because it's not a good idea to be talking about snowfall amounts this far out that is one of Kocin's golden rules that forecasting snowfall amounts this far out hardly verify. I for one is pulling for this thing I love a good thumping snowstorm especially if it's going to get me out from going to my mother in laws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 The 00z Euro Ensemble mean takes the surface low directly over or maybe a hair inside the 40/70 Benchmark. Staying up late, GFS/GGEM/ECM bomb, lunar eclipse...winter solstice...does it get any better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 00z GGEM visual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If the GGEM were a perfect prog, and it overdeepens everything toward the later time periods, Long Island would flip to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The 00z Euro Ensemble mean takes the surface low directly over or maybe a hair inside the 40/70 Benchmark. Staying up late, GFS/GGEM/ECM bomb, lunar eclipse...winter solstice...does it get any better? all you need now is verification in a few days!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 By the way the prelim. extended HPC discussion is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 By the way the prelim. extended HPC discussion is out. Link me...memorized by the eclipse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Link me...memorized by the eclipse HPC Prelim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 ECM ensemble means 00z http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfens850mbTSLPNA120.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfens850mbTSLPNA144.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfens850mbTSLPNA168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 06z NAM is not great at 78-84 as it is completely missing the northern stream feature the globals have over the North-Central US at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 06z NAM is not great at 78-84 as it is completely missing the northern stream feature the globals have over the North-Central US at that time. yeah i noticed this, good thing its the nam lol this has late phase written all over it imo Euro ens look great, 6z gfs up next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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