earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 6:29 AM, mitchnick said: .01"qpf at BWI through Sunday 12z me no likey 0.75" by 156 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 6:30 AM, Collegestudent11 said: That would be quite a blizzard and storm. Sub 970 mb low? I have never seen one that low in this area. December 25, 2002 - 972mb went south of Long Island.. Rain then snow for LI.. storm was to close to the coast for a full snow event though.. in fact, backlash snow wasn't really forcast if i remember correclty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 That is ridonculous low pressure deepening, and the phase just turned this baby around the corner so quick!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hr 162 968 low 50 miles ese of ack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 6:33 AM, tombo82685 said: hr 162 968 low 50 miles ese of ack man - that's a long way off... Isn't that next monday?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 ok im gonna do a qpf map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Salisbury, MD gets crushed with 1.36"+qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 6:32 AM, eduggs said: We always seem to be looking at day 6! Yes, so much time for things to change. I pray that this is a case where the models pick up a storm early and are right, but it's way too early to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 6:32 AM, earthlight said: 0.75" by 156 hrs yes, I saw that my exact estimate from the GEM coincidentally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 More of a (late christmas evening) 12/26 threat. Suspect the ecm is a bit slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 EC Day 7: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 When would this event start per the EURO? I saw about 144 hours out. The GFS starts it at about 114 roughly and then continues it for a day or so. Would a blend be preferable for timing, as they are on the extremes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 6:35 AM, mitchnick said: Salisbury, MD gets crushed with 1.36"+qpf Wes is going to like this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 6:36 AM, SACRUS said: More of a (late christmas evening) 12/26 threat. Suspect the ecm is a bit slow I'll take the 2010 Boxing Day Blizzard.. (as opposed to the 2010 Christmas Blizzard..) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 incredibly low 850 temps, -10C or less at BWI & PHL during height of storm ratios similar to 2/10/10, and I am serious; those were our 850 with that storm and we were getting 1/4 mile visibilities w/.02-04 qpf each hour I have the records to prove it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 6:33 AM, tombo82685 said: hr 162 968 low 50 miles ese of ack Any idea on precip totals up this way in the Hudson Valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 6:36 AM, SACRUS said: More of a (late christmas evening) 12/26 threat. Suspect the ecm is a bit slow Analog: Dec 1947 started 3 am about 3 hours after Christmas ended..... snowstorm ended 24 hours later. The whole weekend is "Christmas weekend" so even if its on Sunday its still a Christmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 6:39 AM, snywx said: Any idea on precip totals up this way in the Hudson Valley? I believe he is creating a QPF map as we speak for the 0z/21 Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The GGEM/EURO slow it down because the phase takes long to develop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I agree, from what I can recall the Euro is usually 12-24hrs to slow. On 12/21/2010 at 6:36 AM, SACRUS said: More of a (late christmas evening) 12/26 threat. Suspect the ecm is a bit slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 6:40 AM, Collegestudent11 said: I believe he is creating a QPF map as we speak for the 0z/21 Euro run. 10/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 6:31 AM, earthlight said: .75-1.00 NYC..PHL..etc. Higher on the NJ coast. John, I love the model runs tonight - but I'm so scared of getting too excited. I'm not even going to check the 6z runs - I'll wait until 12z after this. What do you think the chances of some model consistency are at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 6:32 AM, Jefflaw77 said: December 25, 2002 - 972mb went south of Long Island.. Rain then snow for LI.. storm was to close to the coast for a full snow event though.. in fact, backlash snow wasn't really forcast if i remember correclty... April 2007 Tax Day storm was under 970-- maybe 960..... now if that had happened in February and about 100 miles further southeast..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 6:40 AM, Atlas said: The GGEM/EURO slow it down because the phase takes long to develop... And gives us a full blown blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 6:39 AM, A-L-E-X said: Analog: Dec 1947 started 3 am about 3 hours after Christmas ended..... snowstorm ended 24 hours later. The whole weekend is "Christmas weekend" so even if its on Sunday its still a Christmas storm. h5 isnt even close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Great, Im working Christmas morning...and planning to drive to the Jersey Shore after my shift ends...Ill be stuck doing storm coverage if this verifies..keep it well out of my viewing area!!!!!!!!!! This would have been great any other year when im OFF christmas day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 6:40 AM, Collegestudent11 said: I believe he is creating a QPF map as we speak for the 0z/21 Euro run. I think someone should create a gif loop of all the model runs to show how the qpf sims vary from run to run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 6:43 AM, ace0927 said: h5 isnt even close... Not talking about synoptics--- more about timing lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 ok greatest to least gray 1.25-1.5 yellow 1-1.25 pink .75-1 green .5-.75 blue .25-.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 6:42 AM, A-L-E-X said: April 2007 Tax Day storm was under 970-- maybe 960..... now if that had happened in February and about 100 miles further southeast..... April 2007 nor'easter bottomed out at 968 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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