jrodd321 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Holy crap GGEM looking much better, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The 0z GFS run is the best I've seen yet. The initial s/w is strong enough to pump some overrunning light snow into the area starting early Christmas day (frontside overrunning precip often underdone). The mid and upper levels evolve perfectly and the low level tracks take a perfect track for NYC - only slightly less so for Phi. There is no pinwheeling or duel center h5 lows this time around, so the vertically stacking structure is much less progressive, and a moderately long duration event is the result. Obviously QPF would be underdone wherever banding sets up. Things are very unlikely to play out like this, but what a great run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 108hr...looks fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 144hrs 978mb tucked in south of Long Island...huge hit...good lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 earthlight...GGEM looks like a Miller A classic HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 524dm heights closed off south of Long Island...I have never seen two model runs like this in succession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 5:01 AM, Ji said: earthlight...GGEM looks like a Miller A classic HECS Absolutely agree..its a hybrid but if you believe the GGEM it's leaning heavily towards a Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Now we need the Euro and if that comes in as we all hope, can you spell consensus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 4:59 AM, eduggs said: The 0z GFS run is the best I've seen yet. The initial s/w is strong enough to pump some overrunning light snow into the area starting early Christmas day (frontside overrunning precip often underdone). The mid and upper levels evolve perfectly and the low level tracks take a perfect track for NYC - only slightly less so for Phi. There is no pinwheeling or duel center h5 lows this time around, so the vertically stacking structure is much less progressive, and a moderately long duration event is the result. Obviously QPF would be underdone wherever banding sets up. Things are very unlikely to play out like this, but what a great run! I think that PHL on northeast has the most "breathing room" for this storm since we don't need a major southern stream component to the storm to have a good-great outcome for us. The low can blow up in time for us and New England to get slammed. Of course, we need the ridge to be west enough and steep enough to slam the northern stream energy down to cause the bomb. AAARRRGGGHHH, I wish this wasn't over 100 hours out still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 uuumm yeah, not as good as last night but that has HUGE potential written all over it On 12/21/2010 at 4:54 AM, tombo82685 said: gem hr 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 ggem hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 5:01 AM, Ji said: earthlight...GGEM looks like a Miller A classic HECS Omg ... love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 4:55 AM, tombo82685 said: the gfs ens are off shore but they did nudge west from 18z i believe, stornger signal for a coastal last feb 5th-7th the GFS ensembles were off by 1.25 inches of qpf 18 hours before a storm...they are garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 interesting that, overall speaking, the GFS has been the most consistent, while the GGEM and EURO seem to fluctuate more on this storm. But with the GFS and GGEM both on board for a major hit, I'm getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 HOLY SHNICKIES....that is insane On 12/21/2010 at 5:03 AM, tombo82685 said: ggem hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 5:02 AM, Jefflaw77 said: Now we need the Euro and if that comes in as we all hope, can you spell consensus? Still got to try and not get excited seeing as we are still 100+ hours out. The consensus for this storm seems MUCH better than it was for the previous one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 00z GGEM looks very similar to last night's EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 5:04 AM, Sn0waddict said: Still got to try and not get excited seeing as we are still 100+ hours out. The consensus for this storm seems MUCH better than it was for the previous one though. Agree 2 billion percent - it's nice eye candy though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 5:02 AM, ace0927 said: uuumm yeah, not as good as last night but that has HUGE potential written all over it You were saying? Lets hope the GGEM works out...sigh...i hope we aren't relying on the GGEM...ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I got a feeling 00z Euro will look like the GGEM ..maybe not as extreme. If so..man oh man we in could start barking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 5:06 AM, stormtracker said: You were saying? Lets hope the GGEM works out...sigh...i hope we aren't relying on the GGEM...ugh i dont know man...when the GGEM shows extreme solutions 4-5 days out, ive seen the model verify more often than not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 there is a 53MB difference between the bomb off of LI and the hP in Canada.....yeah ill take that! On 12/21/2010 at 5:03 AM, tombo82685 said: ggem hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Im waiting for DT's explanation on why this run is BS 2 models JACKPOT, ukie/euro next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 does the ggem having slow bias to, cause this thing keeps getting pushed back lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GGEM is a slower evolution than the GFS, also looks like the trough digs further to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 5:06 AM, stormtracker said: You were saying? Lets hope the GGEM works out...sigh...i hope we aren't relying on the GGEM...ugh i was wrong...i ask for forgiveness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 5:07 AM, CooL said: Im waiting for DT's explanation on why this run is BS 2 models JACKPOT, ukie/euro next Keep you Cool buddy! The pattern looks much better this go around, but remember we are over 100 hours out from this storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On 12/21/2010 at 5:06 AM, F5TornadoF5 said: 00z GGEM looks very similar to last night's EURO Yes. Important differences between tonight's GFS and GEM. The GEM has a much higher amplitude trof and the surface low therefore takes a more southerly route. We might be able to score big in either scenario, but the GGEM is more favorable for people further south along the eastern seaboard. The GFS also brings light snow in much earlier than the GEM due to the initial wave and associated overrunning precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 ccb ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Did both the GFS and GGEM depict a Miller A? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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