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Feb 21-22 Storm Obs Thread


snowfan

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Overnite low was 3.1.

6am wake-up 4.7

6:30am  5.2

6:35am  5.4

 

High, thin clouds are overhead and to the east, but can still see orange skies on the far-eastern horizon just pre-sunrise.  Need the lower clouds to move in quickly.  Even a high overcast allowing filtered sunshine during the morning would encourage rising temps quicker than if lower overcast moves in.  Rooting for the lower cloud deck!

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6.2. Creek valley low spot where I'm at. Probably closer to 10 or 12 up higher in neighborhood. I will be grateful for anything I get thats frozen today to add on to the snow pack before the rain comes. Guidance has not changed much over night looks to be pretty consistent here in the lowlands

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Every time I glance at my digital thermometer it bumps up:

6:45am  5.9

 

Glad we bottomed out in low single digits overnite. Timing of cloud deck moving in could not have been better.

 

Overnite low was 3.1.

6am wake-up 4.7

6:30am  5.2

6:35am  5.4

 

High, thin clouds are overhead and to the east, but can still see orange skies on the far-eastern horizon just pre-sunrise.  Need the lower clouds to move in quickly.  Even a high overcast allowing filtered sunshine during the morning would encourage rising temps quicker than if lower overcast moves in.  Rooting for the lower cloud deck!

 

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Point and click just downgraded me to snow after 9am, mixing with ZR at 3pm, 1-3 inches. If you are in VA east of the mts might want to stick to the lower end of the forecast. As of now I expect 1-2 inches before heavy mix at 3pm. then changing rapidly to steady rain.

 

West in Leesburg should be fine, with at least 8 inches of snow thru 9pm. Maryland is all good, still on track for at least 8 inches through 10pm tonight. You are much farther north. Higher elevs will get murdered in cold blood with close to a foot of fresh snow thru tonight, including SW VA. There will be lollis in western VA, in the mountains and in Maryland.

 

Just looked outside: Red Sky! You know what they say - Red Sky in the Morning, Sailors (and snow enthusiasts) Take Warning!

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Could just be me being a weenie, but I think 2m temps hold below freezing longer than guidance depicts tonight. I've seen enough in-situ CAD events in my short life to know that the sfc will struggle to warm even in the absence of a high, esp when factoring in the frigid ground and the overnight timing.

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Newest RR sim radar has precip to the Potomac, including DC. by 9am. The 6z 4km NAM held off until 1pm.

It's barreling instead of crawling.That's for sure.

Very curious as to what kind of flakes fall at onset and when rates pick up. Once midlevel warming goes in earnest it should be fun watching things morph.

I have a hunch that sleet mixes earlier than we are thinking. Just a wag.

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