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Feb 21-22 Storm Obs Thread


snowfan

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finally

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC1212 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015VAZ036>039-050>053-502-220115-/O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-150222T1100Z//O.EXA.KLWX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-150222T1100Z/NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLOTTESVILLE...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX1212 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL6 AM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER INEFFECT.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN  TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A  TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
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Looked at radar and satellite and here is my take for next 6 hours.

The snow now is from upper air warm front. We do not want that very light area south of Fredericksburg to overtake DC.

If it does we go to a very light snow/drizzle and would lose a lot of the effective snow rates.  If we can stay steady-moderate/heavy then upstairs stays cold. The baro will be able to hold onto the snow until about 30.10/15.

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