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Feb 21-22 Storm Obs Thread


snowfan

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Ummmm wasn't that Matt's forecast?

Posted this last night after the Euro

FINAL CALL for DC proper.

10am - Noon: Light snow starts during this window. Could become steadier by Noon. Temps in the low to mid 20s.

Noon to 6pm: Snow, moderate to heavy at times. Sleet may mix in, especially toward the end of this window. Temps rise from the mid 20s to around freezing.

6pm - 10pm: Snow mixes with and changes over to sleet. Sleet then mixes with and changes over to freezing rain/rain. Temps in the low 30s.

10pm - 6am: Freezing rain/rain becomes all rain. Temps rise into the mid 30s. (Rain could potentially freeze on contact for a time at 33 or even 34)

Total snow/sleet accumulation: 3-6"

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Not that you guys need any more reassurance. This is from Mt.Holly but they clearly state the NAM is verifying best so far, euro worst. Enjoy! 

 

WE ARE EXPANDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING A SLICE FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT 12Z SOUNDINGS VS MODEL PROJECTIONS, IF
ANYTHING MODELING ERRORS ARE TOO WARM. THE NAM VERIFIED THE BEST
WITH THE QPF PROJECTIONS THRU 12Z AND ITS WETTEST, DRIEST ECMWF
VERIFIED THE POOREST. LATEST NAM/RAP/HRRR ARE EITHER SNOWIER OR
SLOWER TO BRING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. SO IN THAT NEW WARNING
SLICE, IF WE ARE TOO HEAVY WITH THE SNOW, CHANCES ARE WE MAY BE
TOO LIGHT ON THE ICE

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