1234snow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The band is now moving west to east over my area and it's snowing heavily still. Your looking good John. 1 inch already is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 It is very fluffy snow. It piles up impressively fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The models have shifted around quite a bit but 48 hours ago it was looking like a pretty intense plateau ice hit and that is how it is looking to play out as it's bearing down. Perhaps more snow in the northern parts initially. Todd Howell just backed that up. I'm in a lull here now but the pink is moving this way. I hope the folks northeast of here get a nice snow hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Not much here yet just some very tiny flakes occasionally. Looks like the band is really taking a beating from the dry air I guess. Anyway the temp is 20 here at the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Big blob of yellow returns is headed towards Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Quarter sized flakes filling the sky like a thick fog. All the mods that showed no snow here were very wrong. Kudos to mrx for nailing it even when the models mostly lost the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Finally getting some snow, it's lots of fine, tiny flakes, but it's pretty thick right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0081 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1022 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 210422Z - 211015Z CORRECTED FOR REMOVING ERRONEOUS ALERTED WFOS. SUMMARY...AREAS OF FZRA...AT TIMES MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW LATE THIS EVENING...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. ICE ACCRETION RATES UP TO 0.05-0.10 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...04Z RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA OF WINTER MIXED PCPN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THE ERN EXTENT OF THIS REGION IS CHARACTERIZED BY A MIX OF PRIMARILY SNOW AND SLEET...WHILE FZRA IS THE PREDOMINANT TYPE FARTHER WEST /APPROX BWG-BNA LINE AND VICINITY/. RECENT METARS INDICATE THE AREA OF FZRA IS ASSOCIATED WITH ICE ACCRETION RATES UPWARDS OF 0.10 IN/HR. IN CONCERT WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS...INCREASING ADIABATIC ASCENT FROM A 70-KT LLJ WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER 05-06Z. INDEED...SFC PRES FALLS OF 1-1.5 MB PER HR ACROSS NE AR /PER 03Z SFC ANALYSIS/ ARE A REFLECTION OF THIS ROBUST WAA ALOFT...AND A CONTINUATION OF ICE ACCRETION RATES OF 0.05-0.10 IN/HR IS FORECAST THRU APPROXIMATELY 10Z AS MORE FZRA SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MCD AREA. FURTHERMORE...WHILE NERN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WAA SHOULD SUPPORT THESE P-TYPES MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER ENTIRELY TO FZRA AFTER 06Z. AS SUCH...ICE ACCRETION RATES OF SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN KY...NERN TN...AND SRN INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. ..PICCA/EDWARDS.. 02/21/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Big blob of yellow returns is headed towards Knoxville. The next batch is moving in on me now, it's mostly ZR with a little sleet and sloppy snow flakes mixed in at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Finally have what I would say is moderate snow. Still mostly fine flakes, maybe a few dime size or so, but the sky is full of them. Driveway and road have instantly become white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 hopefully we warm up before that next band get to us,but mesoscale says we wont until around 2,with that LLJ kicking in you guys out east should get some nice ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Looks like the rain line is pushing up into west TN to about Waverly, but frozen north and south of there. P-type radar looks like still more frozen to go from middle to east. Looks like, despite a sleet surge earlier, I'm gonna be ZR until the switchover. I'm wondering how heavy the tree limbs will get before then. Edit: sitting at 25 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Surfaces already glazed over, that was fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Surfaces already glazed over, that was fast. our road is a sheet of ice now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 19 degrees. Waiting on snow to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 More ZR. This is the winter of ZR apparently. If we had snow instead of ZR we would have easily had more than 10" of snow at my house by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I don't recall seeing ice build up this fast before. Instant skating rink here on any surface that wasn't already coated in ice. I'm wondering how fast it will build up on trees. 25 degrees, I'm seeing surges of rather heavy sleet but mostly straight up freezing rain. Oddly, I've seen it come down heavy even when RadarScope shows low returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 It seems to have changed over pretty quickly down there stove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Freezing rain come down nice and strong at my place too, Stovepipe. I don't want anymore middle of the night power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Freezing rain come down nice and strong at my place too, Stovepipe. I don't want anymore middle of the night power outages. Would love to avoid that too. On the plus side, the sleet is really pouring right now, been surging for 20 minutes or so. Better than ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 NWS says sleet until 5 a.m. in Farragut before changing to freezing rain, but if there's any sleet the past hour, I can't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Well dang, Stove, I must live on the wrong side of the street. Let me go check again. edit - ok that time it bounced on my hand, so that's sleet (I think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Had to go pick up some folks who were stranded. Probably the worst weather I've ever driven in. It's snowed 3 inches here. Now it's mostly sleet with snow embedded. But down in Jacksboro and Caryville it has snowed maybe 2.5 inches and had turned over to rain and sleet. The temp was 22 on the bank in Jacksboro. Awful hardly describes the conditions. As I type this the sleet is hitting my window so hard it's drowning out the television. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Moderate sleet continues here, p-type radar shows the rain line just now encroaching on west/middle TN. Edit: Sleet so hard it stings your face if you look up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I'm actually wondering how long we'll see freezing rain with the temp above freezing. The surface is that cold right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Finally got here and it's pouring the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 winds are howling here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Moderate sleet continues here, p-type radar shows the rain line just now encroaching on west/middle TN. Edit: Sleet so hard it stings your face if you look up! It's sleeting harder now that it did at any point Monday when I got 3 inches of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Finally got here and it's pouring the snow. Internet Fist Bump! I've never seen sleet pellets this large. Not trying to be dramatic but seriously, this is the craziest sleet I've ever seen. Both in terms of rate and pellet size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The rates are pretty impressive on the frozen parts of the storm. Not sure how much zr I'll get, still 95 percent sleet. Maybe some small snow flakes and drizzle mixed in as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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