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Freeze to Thaw, Winter Wx, Feb. 20th-21st, 2015


Windspeed

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The models have shifted around quite a bit but 48 hours ago it was looking like a pretty intense plateau ice hit and that is how it is looking to play out as it's bearing down.  Perhaps more snow in the northern parts initially.  Todd Howell just backed that up.  I'm in a lull here now but the pink is moving this way.  I hope the folks northeast of here get a nice snow hit.

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mcd0081.gif

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0081
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1022 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

   VALID 210422Z - 211015Z

   CORRECTED FOR REMOVING ERRONEOUS ALERTED WFOS.

   SUMMARY...AREAS OF FZRA...AT TIMES MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW LATE
   THIS EVENING...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. ICE ACCRETION RATES UP
   TO 0.05-0.10 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...04Z RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA OF
   WINTER MIXED PCPN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS THIS
   EVENING. THE ERN EXTENT OF THIS REGION IS CHARACTERIZED BY A MIX OF
   PRIMARILY SNOW AND SLEET...WHILE FZRA IS THE PREDOMINANT TYPE
   FARTHER WEST /APPROX BWG-BNA LINE AND VICINITY/. RECENT METARS
   INDICATE THE AREA OF FZRA IS ASSOCIATED WITH ICE ACCRETION RATES
   UPWARDS OF 0.10 IN/HR.

   IN CONCERT WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM AN APPROACHING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS...INCREASING ADIABATIC ASCENT
   FROM A 70-KT LLJ WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN OVERSPREADING
   THE AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER 05-06Z. INDEED...SFC PRES FALLS OF
   1-1.5 MB PER HR ACROSS NE AR /PER 03Z SFC ANALYSIS/ ARE A REFLECTION
   OF THIS ROBUST WAA ALOFT...AND A CONTINUATION OF ICE ACCRETION RATES
   OF 0.05-0.10 IN/HR IS FORECAST THRU APPROXIMATELY 10Z AS MORE FZRA
   SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MCD AREA. FURTHERMORE...WHILE NERN
   PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A MIXTURE OF SLEET
   AND SNOW...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WAA SHOULD SUPPORT THESE
   P-TYPES MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER ENTIRELY TO FZRA AFTER 06Z. AS
   SUCH...ICE ACCRETION RATES OF SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR
   CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN KY...NERN TN...AND SRN
   INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AS WELL.

   ..PICCA/EDWARDS.. 02/21/2015

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Looks like the rain line is pushing up into west TN to about Waverly, but frozen north and south of there.  P-type radar looks like still more frozen to go from middle to east.  Looks like, despite a sleet surge earlier, I'm gonna be ZR until the switchover.  I'm wondering how heavy the tree limbs will get before then.

 

Edit:  sitting at 25 degrees.

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I don't recall seeing ice build up this fast before.  Instant skating rink here on any surface that wasn't already coated in ice.  I'm wondering how fast it will build up on trees.  25 degrees, I'm seeing surges of rather heavy sleet but mostly straight up freezing rain.  Oddly, I've seen it come down heavy even when RadarScope shows low returns.

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Had to go pick up some folks who were stranded. Probably the worst weather I've ever driven in. It's snowed 3 inches here. Now it's mostly sleet with snow embedded. But down in Jacksboro and Caryville it has snowed maybe 2.5 inches and had turned over to rain and sleet. The temp was 22 on the bank in Jacksboro. Awful hardly describes the conditions. As I type this the sleet is hitting my window so hard it's drowning out the television.

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