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Freeze to Thaw, Winter Wx, Feb. 20th-21st, 2015


Windspeed

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Will the models bust in our favor this time???  Some kind of bust is happening right now.

I think that a lot of the really heavy returns on the north side of I-24 are mixed with sleet. Looking at radarscope, I think the DBZ values are just too high for it to be all snow. If we have any members in the Manchester - Murfreesboro area maybe they can confirm. Could be super heavy snow, but I'm skeptical . I did get sleet here when the southern edge moved through.

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Will the models bust in our favor this time???  Some kind of bust is happening right now.

I think its possible.  Freezing line is still down as far south as Birmingham.  If when the broken area of precip behind the band thats working north now hits Chattanooga, and still falls as snow...  Then I will get excited and believe the RAP of more snow than freezing rain.

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I've just entered the band on the very north end and it has picked up dramatically!  I'm where the red star is on the attached pic, and i'm getting quarter sized flakes and falling quite hard, I can't wait until the heavier returns still 40 miles to my south!

 

Whooo hooo that is good news!

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I think that a lot of the really heavy returns on the north side of I-24 are mixed with sleet. Looking at radarscope, I think the DBZ values are just too high for it to be all snow. If we have any members in the Manchester - Murfreesboro area maybe they can confirm. Could be super heavy snow, but I'm skeptical . I did get sleet here when the southern edge moved through.

Probably should have specified. The dwindling amounts pre-switchover on the models appear to be wrong. I think we get more frozen precip, maybe much more, than the models predicted yesterday. Most likely in the form of ice.

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Thanks, Stove. I'm aware that Robert is a reputable met. That's why I mentioned that I trust him. Did not know about the other.

It is snowing beautifully in Oak Ridge right now! :)

Just to clarify in case you didn't know, WxSouth is Robert Gamble, a well respected meteorologist that is an expert on this area. WxEastern is just a dude with no professional training that likes to post things on the internet. Keep that in mind when you are weighing their opinions.

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That band has passed me and after the radar returns return to nothing, I am getting grapple again mixed with flurries.  Question is do we return to snow after that band...  Moisture is really filling in, so we'll know soon if the band moving north is the battle zone between precip types.  BTW same as chatt reports looks like 1.5" in that band roughly.

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Just now starting to snow here. 21 degrees. The band looks a little worse for wear VS earlier but it may be more reflective of radar coverage where it's at.

 

This

 

I'm about to see what it's made of here in about 5 or 10 minutes.  Reb reporting heavy with half dollars in Maryville.

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I'm in the thick of that band now.  Solid moderate snow, heavier at times, dimes and nickels with some quarters mixed in, very little wind.  Probably not the intensity that Shawn experienced but very nice none the less.  Maybe a quarter inch so far on roads and everything so far.

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I don't know if it has any bearing but our low temp is about 7 degrees lower then the initial forecast at KTRI, at least according to WCYB,

 

According to Radarscope it's just now starting to change over to rain in the Memphis area.  Seems the cold air is slower to retreat than models showed.

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Yeah I'm down to 15. Temp keeps dropping. Dew point is 6. Going to be a very interesting overnight.

 

Indeed, as I left for dinner it was noticeably cold, flipped on my phone and said 14-15.  I think we were forecasted for a low of 23 here. 

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MRX update:

 

 

 

FXUS64 KMRX 210340
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1040 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...BAND OF MODERATE SNOW HAS MOVED NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO CENTRAL EAST
TENNESSEE AND THE NORTHERN PLATEAU WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER A FEW
HOUR PERIOD OF AN INCH TO UP TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES. SOME
FREEZING RAIN HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED THE PAST FEW HOURS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SNOW BAND. TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE 20S WITH
COLDER NORTHEAST LOCATIONS IN THE TEENS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST
TO INCREASE POPS IN SE TN MOUNTAINS AND SW NORTH CAROLINA AND LOWER
THE PROGRESSION A FEW HOURS IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST WHERE DRIER
AIR MASS WAS STILL IN PLACE. BEHIND INITIAL BAND PRECIPITATION WAS
FILLING IN ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND NE AL WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. AFTER A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS THE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL MOVE IN
TO THAT AREA THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FORECAST OTHERWISE LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN FOR THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS AS THE SNOW BAND HAS ALREADY MOVED
THROUGH AND AS SNOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHEAST IT MAY BECOME HEAVY
BEFORE CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY. WILL UPDATE WINTER STORM WARNING SHORTLY.

 

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After nearly an inch of snow, I've now transitioned over to a sleet/freezing rain/snow mix coming down at a good rate.  This is going to get messy.

Ugh. I was hoping for more sleet down here from the next round, but it Knoxville is already seeing ZR, I doubt I have much of a shot at IP down here.

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