tnweathernut Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hope so,someone to our SW is getting a good cell,showing some 40 dbz better hope it's not sleet! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 better hope it's not sleet! lol yeah i know...hrrr is showing until 6 our time,then the transition starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Was half-way expecting the WSW to be cancelled as I kept hearing later in the morning that the storm would not be as big a deal as originally thought (heard this from WxSouth who I trust, and WxEastern). But I see the afternoon MRX update still has us in a WSW and is predicting 1 to 2 inches of snow and 1/4 inch of ice. Question: John1122 was posting earlier about point forecasts versus zone forecasts, how the zones were completed by mets and points were computer generated. Where do you find your zone forecast exactly? Thanks. P.S. No longer flurrying in Oak Ridge, but sure has clouded over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0079 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NERN AR...SERN MO...SWRN KY...FAR NRN MS AND AL CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 202100Z - 210200Z SUMMARY...PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH. RATES OF 0.05-0.10 INCH PER THREE HRS ARE ANTICIPATED. DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING FROM SRN AR NEWD ACROSS WRN/MIDDLE TN...AND ACROSS SERN MO AND SWRN KY. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC FREEZING LINE POSITIONED FROM CNTRL AR EWD ACROSS N-CNTRL MS...AND SLOWLY ADVANCING NWD IN RESPONSE TO SFC MOIST/WARM-AIR ADVECTION AND TEMPERED EFFECTS FROM DIURNAL HEATING. REPORTS OF INTERMITTENT FREEZING RAIN HAVE BEEN RECEIVED WITHIN THE PAST 1-3 HRS ACROSS THE REGION...INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS AREA. STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ /ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE ARKLATEX PER SHV VWP DATA/ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...RESULTING IN A WARM NOSE AT 1.5-2 KM AGL BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED WITH TIME. FREEZING RAIN SHOULD REMAIN OR TRANSITION TO THE DOMINANT P-TYPE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WHERE SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES PERSIST. RATES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT /0.05-0.10 INCH PER THREE HRS/...BEFORE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT /AFTER 00Z/ AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMANATING OUT OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...WHERE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO NRN/WRN PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA. CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIPITATION RATES MAY ALSO OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 freezing line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 hate being in a snow hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Was half-way expecting the WSW to be cancelled as I kept hearing later in the morning that the storm would not be as big a deal as originally thought (heard this from WxSouth who I trust, and WxEastern). But I see the afternoon MRX update still has us in a WSW and is predicting 1 to 2 inches of snow and 1/4 inch of ice. Question: John1122 was posting earlier about point forecasts versus zone forecasts, how the zones were completed by mets and points were computer generated. Where do you find your zone forecast exactly? Thanks. P.S. No longer flurrying in Oak Ridge, but sure has clouded over. Scroll down the page and its the first thing under "Additional Forecasts and Information".http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Oak+Ridge&state=TN&site=MRX&textField1=35.9627&textField2=-84.2962&e=0#.VOeuymn0CBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 looks like a nice band working through Chatt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 looks like a nice band working through Chatt. I can confirm snow has picked up in intensity. Roads and all paved/concrete surfaces went white instantly. Grass is now turning white. Just saw a video on channel 9 showing interstate 59 coming in to Chattanooga. It was a mess. Solid white and getting deeper. My weather station dropped from 28* down to 24* in less than 30 minutes once the snow started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I can confirm snow has picked up in intensity. Roads and all paved/concrete surfaces went white instantly. Grass is now turning white. Just saw a video on channel 9 showing interstate 59 coming in to Chattanooga. It was a mess. Solid white and getting deeper. My weather station dropped from 28* down to 24* in less than 30 minutes once the snow started. Glad to hear it. Looks like you could get some pretty good rates for a while before changing over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 annoying storm,everything is N or S of us,we havent seen nothing the last hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Glad to hear it. Looks like you could get some pretty good rates for a while before changing over. Yea John, doesn't look like more than a small event but seeing everything white is still nice around here. On a side note my weather station has ticked down to 23* and still have a steady snow. . Temps are holding much colder than forecasted. I would love to hold off the WAA as long as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I can confirm snow has picked up in intensity. Roads and all paved/concrete surfaces went white instantly. Grass is now turning white. Just saw a video on channel 9 showing interstate 59 coming in to Chattanooga. It was a mess. Solid white and getting deeper. My weather station dropped from 28* down to 24* in less than 30 minutes once the snow started. Yeah I think that band is likely going to be the main event in terms of snow from this. I think its capable of 1-2 inches maybe a little more. I think behind that would be mostly the sleet and freezing rain, before the actual rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 fixing to get hit by a sleet storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Probably nearing 1 inch here so far. Temp is 24, moderate snow, dime sized flakes. Very happy. I wasn't expecting much. I still don't think the WSW will verify, but at least we have something measurable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 For east TN the RAP is snowier while the HRRR is icier. Plateau, especially the northern plateau looks to do very well with snow/sleet. After the valley switches to rain they are still going strong with the frozen up there. John will probably get hammered, he may get a serious winter storm as well (ba-dum tish!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Probably nearing 1 inch here so far. Temp is 24, moderate snow, dime sized flakes. Very happy. I wasn't expecting much. I still don't think the WSW will verify, but at least we have something measurable! Glad to hear it D-wag! Have fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 For east TN the RAP is snowier while the HRRR is icier. Plateau, especially the northern plateau looks to do very well with snow/sleet. After the valley switches to rain they are still going strong with the frozen up there. John will probably get hammered, he may get a serious winter storm as well (ba-dum tish!). It's interesting to see that the HRRR and RAP are much wetter than basically all models(except 18z GFS) have been today and last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 fixing to get hit by a sleet storm.. That is not good, I still have nearly three inches of sleet sitting on the roof! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Winding down now, but the last 10 minutes have been the heaviest snow I've seen since the storm last February. Basically whiteout conditions minus winds. Probably wind up with a little over 1.5 inches once the band moves out.EDIT: I very quickly switched to mostly sleet on the backend of the band. 1.25" outside on every surface with sleet falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Winding down now, but the last 10 minutes have been the heaviest snow I've seen since the storm last February. Basically whiteout conditions minus winds. Probably wind up with a little over 1.5 inches once the band moves out. Awesome! Now I know what to expect out of the band... Its been sitting begrudgingly on my doorstep for a bit, I'm impatient waiting for it to work through. I'm in northern Meigs right on the Roane county line, and the edge of the band has been just to my south for a bit. However I've been getting light snow and sleet for the last hour not showing up on radar returns, enough to turn the highway white, and areas where snow from the other day melted are now white again. Here's to hoping that the RAP is correct and we see more snow, even sleet over freezing rain. I've had enough of power outages and trees down this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 This band certainly has my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The TDOT smartway around Nooga shows chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VW Builder Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Temp is 24*. Snow sleet mix. We have between 1"-2". I'm in siuthern part of Chattanooga near Georgia border. Yhese lics were feom about 30 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The TDOT smartway around Nooga shows chaos. Most of I-75 through the east side of town is concrete or open graded friction course asphalt. The snow sticks to it faster than traditional asphalt. It works against you in winter, but water soaks straight through it so there isn't any spray off of trucks in rain events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Was half-way expecting the WSW to be cancelled as I kept hearing later in the morning that the storm would not be as big a deal as originally thought (heard this from WxSouth who I trust, and WxEastern). But I see the afternoon MRX update still has us in a WSW and is predicting 1 to 2 inches of snow and 1/4 inch of ice. Just to clarify in case you didn't know, WxSouth is Robert Gamble, a well respected meteorologist that is an expert on this area. WxEastern is just a dude with no professional training that likes to post things on the internet. Keep that in mind when you are weighing their opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I really haven't been getting sleet at all BTW, I said sleet but its really been snow and grapple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Can someone answer a question for me please? I installed TapaTalk on my phone yesterday and just posted the above pics. Why would it post under a different name? I am Uncle Nasty but my phone, for whatever reason has my nme as VW Builder. I do work for VW however. I never had 2 accounts here that I know of. Any help appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Can someone answer a question for me please? I installed TapaTalk on my phone yesterday and just posted the above pics. Why would it post under a different name? I am Uncle Nasty but my phone, for whatever reason has my nme as VW Builder. I do work for VW however. I never had 2 accounts here that I know of. Any help appreciated. Yo Uncle Nasty, good to see you man! Let's talk about it over in banter. I need to get that famous margarita recipe from you too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I-75 Ooltewah/Chattanooga... Looks like fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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