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Freeze to Thaw, Winter Wx, Feb. 20th-21st, 2015


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Was half-way expecting the WSW to be cancelled as I kept hearing later in the morning that the storm would not be as big a deal as originally thought (heard this from WxSouth who I trust, and WxEastern). But I see the afternoon MRX update still has us in a WSW and is predicting 1 to 2 inches of snow and 1/4 inch of ice.

 

Question: John1122 was posting earlier about point forecasts versus zone forecasts, how the zones were completed by mets and points were computer generated.  Where do you find your zone forecast exactly?  Thanks.

 

P.S. No longer flurrying in Oak Ridge, but sure has clouded over. 

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mcd0079.gif

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0079
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NERN AR...SERN MO...SWRN KY...FAR
   NRN MS AND AL

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

   VALID 202100Z - 210200Z

   SUMMARY...PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR
   THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
   MID-SOUTH. RATES OF 0.05-0.10 INCH PER THREE HRS ARE ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT TO
   LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING FROM SRN AR NEWD ACROSS
   WRN/MIDDLE TN...AND ACROSS SERN MO AND SWRN KY. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS
   SHOWS THE SFC FREEZING LINE POSITIONED FROM CNTRL AR EWD ACROSS
   N-CNTRL MS...AND SLOWLY ADVANCING NWD IN RESPONSE TO SFC
   MOIST/WARM-AIR ADVECTION AND TEMPERED EFFECTS FROM DIURNAL HEATING.
   REPORTS OF INTERMITTENT FREEZING RAIN HAVE BEEN RECEIVED WITHIN THE
   PAST 1-3 HRS ACROSS THE REGION...INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS AREA.

   STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ /ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE ARKLATEX PER
   SHV VWP DATA/ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...RESULTING IN
   A WARM NOSE AT 1.5-2 KM AGL BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED WITH TIME.
   FREEZING RAIN SHOULD REMAIN OR TRANSITION TO THE DOMINANT P-TYPE
   OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WHERE SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
   RATES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT /0.05-0.10 INCH PER
   THREE HRS/...BEFORE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT /AFTER 00Z/ AHEAD OF A
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMANATING OUT OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...WHERE THE
   FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO NRN/WRN PORTIONS OF
   THE MCD AREA. CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIPITATION RATES MAY ALSO
   OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

 

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Was half-way expecting the WSW to be cancelled as I kept hearing later in the morning that the storm would not be as big a deal as originally thought (heard this from WxSouth who I trust, and WxEastern). But I see the afternoon MRX update still has us in a WSW and is predicting 1 to 2 inches of snow and 1/4 inch of ice.

Question: John1122 was posting earlier about point forecasts versus zone forecasts, how the zones were completed by mets and points were computer generated. Where do you find your zone forecast exactly? Thanks.

P.S. No longer flurrying in Oak Ridge, but sure has clouded over.

Scroll down the page and its the first thing under "Additional Forecasts and Information".

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Oak+Ridge&state=TN&site=MRX&textField1=35.9627&textField2=-84.2962&e=0#.VOeuymn0CBY

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looks like a nice band working through Chatt.

I can confirm snow has picked up in intensity. Roads and all paved/concrete surfaces went white instantly. Grass is now turning white. Just saw a video on channel 9 showing interstate 59 coming in to Chattanooga. It was a mess. Solid white and getting deeper. 

 

My weather station dropped from 28* down to 24* in less than 30 minutes once the snow started.

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I can confirm snow has picked up in intensity. Roads and all paved/concrete surfaces went white instantly. Grass is now turning white. Just saw a video on channel 9 showing interstate 59 coming in to Chattanooga. It was a mess. Solid white and getting deeper. 

 

My weather station dropped from 28* down to 24* in less than 30 minutes once the snow started.

Glad to hear it. Looks like you could get some pretty good rates for a while before changing over.

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Glad to hear it. Looks like you could get some pretty good rates for a while before changing over.

Yea John, doesn't look like more than a small event but seeing everything white is still nice around here. On a side note my weather station has ticked down to 23* and still have a steady snow. . Temps are holding much colder than forecasted. I would love to hold off the WAA as long as possible.

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I can confirm snow has picked up in intensity. Roads and all paved/concrete surfaces went white instantly. Grass is now turning white. Just saw a video on channel 9 showing interstate 59 coming in to Chattanooga. It was a mess. Solid white and getting deeper. 

 

My weather station dropped from 28* down to 24* in less than 30 minutes once the snow started.

Yeah I think that band is likely going to be the main event in terms of snow from this.  I think its capable of 1-2 inches maybe a little more.  I think behind that would be mostly the sleet and freezing rain, before the actual rain.

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For east TN the RAP is snowier while the HRRR is icier.  Plateau, especially the northern plateau looks to do very well with snow/sleet.  After the valley switches to rain they are still going strong with the frozen up there.  John will probably get hammered, he may get a serious winter storm as well (ba-dum tish!).

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For east TN the RAP is snowier while the HRRR is icier.  Plateau, especially the northern plateau looks to do very well with snow/sleet.  After the valley switches to rain they are still going strong with the frozen up there.  John will probably get hammered, he may get a serious winter storm as well (ba-dum tish!).

It's interesting to see that the HRRR and RAP are much wetter than basically all models(except 18z GFS) have been today and last night.

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Winding down now, but the last 10 minutes have been the heaviest snow I've seen since the storm last February. Basically whiteout conditions minus winds. Probably wind up with a little over 1.5 inches once the band moves out.
EDIT: I very quickly switched to mostly sleet on the backend of the band. 1.25" outside on every surface with sleet falling.

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Winding down now, but the last 10 minutes have been the heaviest snow I've seen since the storm last February. Basically whiteout conditions minus winds. Probably wind up with a little over 1.5 inches once the band moves out.

Awesome!  Now I know what to expect out of the band...  Its been sitting begrudgingly on my doorstep for a bit, I'm impatient waiting for it to work through.  I'm in northern Meigs right on the Roane county line, and the edge of the band has been just to my south for a bit.  However I've been getting light snow and sleet for the last hour not showing up on radar returns, enough to turn the highway white, and areas where snow from the other day melted are now white again.  Here's to hoping that the RAP is correct and we see more snow, even sleet over freezing rain.  I've had enough of power outages and trees down this week.

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The TDOT smartway around Nooga shows chaos.

Most of I-75 through the east side of town is concrete or open graded friction course asphalt. The snow sticks to it faster than traditional asphalt. It works against you in winter, but water soaks straight through it so there isn't any spray off of trucks in rain events.

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Was half-way expecting the WSW to be cancelled as I kept hearing later in the morning that the storm would not be as big a deal as originally thought (heard this from WxSouth who I trust, and WxEastern). But I see the afternoon MRX update still has us in a WSW and is predicting 1 to 2 inches of snow and 1/4 inch of ice.

 

Just to clarify in case you didn't know, WxSouth is Robert Gamble, a well respected meteorologist that is an expert on this area.  WxEastern is just a dude with no professional training that likes to post things on the internet.  Keep that in mind when you are weighing their opinions.

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Can someone answer a question for me please? I installed TapaTalk on my phone yesterday and just posted the above pics. Why would it post under a different name? I am Uncle Nasty but my phone, for whatever reason has my nme as VW Builder. I do work for VW however. I never had 2 accounts here that I know of. Any help appreciated.

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Can someone answer a question for me please? I installed TapaTalk on my phone yesterday and just posted the above pics. Why would it post under a different name? I am Uncle Nasty but my phone, for whatever reason has my nme as VW Builder. I do work for VW however. I never had 2 accounts here that I know of. Any help appreciated.

 

Yo Uncle Nasty, good to see you man!  Let's talk about it over in banter.  I need to get that famous margarita recipe from you too.

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