John1122 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 MRX upgraded everyone but the far east areas to a Winter Storm Warning, My forecast still says 2-4 inches of snow and only .10 ice. I really hope it's right. Don't want any part of the massive ice accumulation the models are cranking out for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I guess I spoke too soon, now it's 2-4 snow/sleet and .2-.4 ice through 1 pm tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Rare to see this 2 times in 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Wow, that was an amazing shift in the modeling. 0z Euro: 0z Ukie: 6z RGEM Ice: 6z NAM: 6z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm not sure that every weather forecast office in the region didn't mostly ignore the direct model outputs on precip type amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm not sure that every weather forecast office in the region didn't mostly ignore the direct model outputs on precip type amounts. My forecast is for less than an inch of snow and sleet and .1 ice tonight. That's a relative non-event, the trees would appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnmetalhead Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looks like the RGEM is really picking up on the downsloping for the border counties . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 My forecast is for less than an inch of snow and sleet and .1 ice tonight. That's a relative non-event, the trees would appreciate it. The zone forecast for Knox is pretty robust. A chance of snow...light freezing rain and light sleet likely in the evening...then light freezing rain and light sleet after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Ice accumulation of up to one quarter of an inch. Lows in the mid to upper 20s. Temperature steady or slowly rising after midnight. South winds 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Saturday Breezy. Not as cool. Light freezing rain in the morning. Rain in the afternoon. Ice accumulation of up to one quarter of an inch. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. South winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I believe the zones are written by mets, while the points are filled by the computer program. The zone matches up with the graphic pretty well, while the points do not in most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The zone forecast for Knox is pretty robust. Yeah that is a pretty big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looking more and more like a Plateau event. Models are trending lighter with precip on each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 6z HI-RES NAM. Looks like a non-event for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF COLORADO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TONIGHT. ...SYNOPSIS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN WILL TRANSLATE ESEWD TO THE CO FRONT RANGE BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE EWD OVER KS/MO TONIGHT...WHILE LARGE DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES OCCUR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-UPPER JET...IN COMBINATION WITH CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES...WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CO. MEANWHILE...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR TODAY INVOF THE TX/NM/OK BORDER IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH...AND HELP STRENGTHEN SLY FLOW ACROSS TX. A MODIFYING AIR MASS IS RETURNING NWD FROM THE WRN GULF BASIN...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE MID 60S AS TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE SLY WITH TIME. THE N EDGE OF THE RETURNING MOISTURE /56-60 F DEWPOINTS/ WILL SPREAD AS FAR NE AS THE ARKLATEX BY TONIGHT. BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR ACROSS TX TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE MODEST MOISTURE RETURN COMPARED TO MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES/LAPSE RATES. FARTHER NE AND MAINLY TONIGHT...A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA AND SATURATION...SUCH THAT WEAK CAPE ROOTED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS NEWD ALONG THE 70-80 KT LLJ...WITH THUNDER FREEZING RAIN/SLEET LIKELY WITH THE INITIAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ABOVE A SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER FROM AR TO THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEY REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Atmosphere looks like it already beginning to moisten across the state. Some virga starting to show on radars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Atmosphere looks like it already beginning to moisten across the state. Some virga starting to show on radars. Is it just me, or is this looking further south than models have been suggesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Is it just me, or is this looking further south than models have been suggesting? Yes, at least at this point. The HI-Res maps that 1234 posted up above are way off of what is happening now. Ice reports well down into Mississippi and Alabama. There are now FZRN Advisories way down there into those states. Parts of the Memphis area are having an awful time on the roads. Just a little FZRN goes a long way on the roads. Now, how that translates to the east, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12Z GFS clown, of course doesn't account for sleet and freezing rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12Z NAM hi-res clown, again not accounting for sleet and freezing rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 OHX update: 000FXUS64 KOHX 201651AFDOHXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN1051 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015.UPDATE...TAKING A LOOK AT NEW 12Z DATA...NO BIG CHANGES. HAVEMADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ICE ACCUM AND SNOW TOTAL GRIDS...BUTTHESE ARE RELATIVELY MINOR...AND HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME.A COLD AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE OVER MID TN AT MID MORNING...WITHTEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLES. RADARSHOWED A BAND OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS THE MID STATE...BUTTHIS ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. SNOW ANDSLEET IS REACHING THE GROUND BACK IN WEST TN...INCLUDING JACKSONWHERE VSBYS HAVE BEEN DOWN TO 3/4 MILE.WE EXPECT POCKETS OF FLURRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 2-3HOURS...THEN SNOW WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER 2 PM. WE HAVERECEIVED A LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT RUSH HOUR...ESPECIALLY INNASHVILLE. THERE MAY BE LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION FOR BNA THROUGH3 PM OR MAYBE 4 PM...BUT THINGS COULD GO DOWNHILL QUICKLY. FORDECIDING WHEN TO HEAD HOME...IT IS NOT ADVISED TO JUST LOOK OUTTHE WINDOW FOR SNOW TO START. IF EVERYBODY DOES...THERE WILL BE LOTSOF PEOPLE ON THE ROADS WHEN THINGS ARE GETTING BAD. PLEASE PLANAHEAD.BY 6 PM...SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO BE FALLING OVER MUCH OFTHE MID STATE WITH ACCUMS ANYWHERE FROM ONE QUARTER TO 1 INCH.FREEZING RAIN WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL CHASE THE SNOW TO THEEAST...AND SPREAD FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. LATE IN THENIGHT...THE WARMER AIR WILL CHANGE THE WINTRY PRECIP OVER TO RAINFROM WEST TO EAST. THE LINE OF ALL LIQUID IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONGTHE TN RIVER ABOUT MIDNIGHT...I 65 AROUND 3 AM...AND THE PLATEAUBY 9 AM. ONE ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TO LOWER ICETOTALS A LITTLE FOR OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS RESULTS INEXPECTED ICE TOTALS OF A TENTH TO QUARTER GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF I24...WITH ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF I 24.SNOW TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ANYWHERE FROM ONE HALF TO1.5 INCH.TODAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALLAFTER THIS WINTER EVENT AND WE WILL CONSIDER AND COORDINATE APOSSIBLE FLOOD WATCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm right at 19º right now. Temp has been rising fast all morning from a low of -12º. Granted, it's been beautiful blue skies all day. Not sure if we'll make it above freezing, but it's going to be close. Funny that after three days of model runs, we may very well be too warm to see any frozen types by the time precip gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Light Snow being reported at a few stations in Northern AL: Decatur 11:53 AM Light Snow 26ºF 15ºF 63% SE 10 30.36 in 6:29 AM/5:35 PM Meridianville 11:55 AM Light Snow 27ºF 5ºF 39% SE 8 30.36 in 6:29 AM/5:35 PM Huntsville 11:53 AM Light Snow 28ºF 14ºF 56% SE 9 30.35 in 6:29 AM/5:34 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 MRX change over times: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN1259 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015.AVIATION...YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE BUILDINGSOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITHMUCH WARMER AND UNFORTUNATELY MOIST AIR OVERSPREADING A VERY COLDSURFACE AIRMASS. THIS MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE SNOW TRANSITIONINGTO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY. EVENTUALLY THEMIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE INTO RAIN AROUND 11Z ATCHA...POSSIBLY 13Z AT TYS AND AROUND MID DAY AT TRI. MODELFORECASTS CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS OR BETTER THROUGH THE EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm right at 19º right now. Temp has been rising fast all morning from a low of -12º. Granted, it's been beautiful blue skies all day. Not sure if we'll make it above freezing, but it's going to be close. Funny that after three days of model runs, we may very well be too warm to see any frozen types by the time precip gets here. I went from -11 to 18 quickly, but I've been stuck at 18 for a few hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 We started out around 0 and currently sitting at 20 degrees here in Oak Ridge, TN. Flurries just started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 My start at 3, presently 22, and sitting stable. Overcast has moved in over the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Little bit of dandruff falling in Cleveland at the moment. Temp is 27. Edit: graupel. Snow and sleet's illegitimate child. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Shot from the Huntsville Skycam shows the start of a dusting already and snow still coming down: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Just beat the dry air,snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Just beat the dry air,snowing I hope you hold onto it long enough to see an accumulation Jax. Maybe the airport can break an inch for the second time in a week after going 1,450+ days between 1''?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I hope you hold onto it long enough to see an accumulation Jax. Maybe the airport can break an inch for the second time in a week after going 1,450+ days between 1''?? Hope so,someone to our SW is getting a good cell,showing some 40 dbz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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