Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN950 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015.DISCUSSION...SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD STILL PRODUCEA FEW FLURRIES INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS WELL COVERED INTODAY`S GRIDS.OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY IS THE BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS OVER THEREGION...AS NOTED BY THE -25 DEGREES CELSIUS TEMPS OVER ERN KY ANDSW VA THIS MORNING AT 850 MBS. SUB ZERO AND SINGLE DIGIT LOWS THISMORNING WON`T RISE MUCH TODAY...BUT I MAY NEED TO TWEAK A FEW MAXTEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.WIND SPEEDS ARE MUCH LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY...AND AS TEMPS WARM AFEW DEGREES THIS MORNING...THE WIND CHILL WARNING VALUES SHOULD BELIMITED TO THE ERN MTNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW VA. HOWEVER...NRNPLATEAU AND NRN VALLEY AREAS DID BRIEFLY DIP BELOW -15 DEGREES FORWIND CHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY ANDWARNING PRODUCTS LOOK GOOD ON AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION.LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...WINTER WEATHER LOOMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTOSATURDAY. AFTER VIEWING 06Z MODEL DATA...OUR LATEST FORECAST GRIDSLOOK ON TRACK FOR THOSE PERIODS ON POTENTIAL ICE AND/OR SNOWAMOUNTS. WILL VIEW 12Z MODEL DATA AND COORDINATE ON THE NEED TOEXPAND THE WINTER STORM WATCH NORTH INTO NE TN AND SW VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Stovepipe can you provide KCHA numbers? CHA: Snow: Trace ZR: 0.18 Sleet: 0.17 CSV: Snow: 3.5 ZR: 0.90 Sleet: 0.55 Plateau is nuts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Hi-Res NAM p-type accums through hour 60: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z RGEM out to 48 doesn't cover all of the frozen event in east TN. But it seems to have more QPF focused in the southern part of the state. Mix of all precip types statewide but not as juicy as NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z GFS is rolling. Seems to have a similar trend of bringing in ample precip before temps rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z RGEM not as amped as NAM but only goes out to hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Anyone have that freezing rain graphic posted earlier? .90 inches in Jamestown would be awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 NAM looks to cold at the surface,least for Mid Tn anyways.NAM has us at 11 degrees at noon today,GFS 15.We are at 13 at 1015.NAM has our day time high at 14,surely that's not going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z GFS keeps a pocket of cold 850s in place over the upper cumberland and northern plateau, big snow dump: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN921 AM CST THU FEB 19 2015 .UPDATE...FRIGID TEMPERATURES WERE REPORTED THIS MORNING ACROSSMID TN. SUNSHINE WAS HELPING...WITH MID MORNING READINGS "WARMING"INTO THE 5 TO 10 RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WIND CHILLS WERE IN THESINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUEUNTIL NOON. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FOR HOURLY TRENDS...ANDGIVEN FULL SUNSHINE...BUMPED UP HIGHS A DEGREE OR 2. WE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT MORE WINTRY WX FOR MID TN FROMMIDDAY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. 06Z DATA AND FIRST GLANCE AT12Z DATA SHOW AN INCH OR 2 OF SNOW FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT...LIKELY DAMAGING...ICE IN THE FORM OF HEAVY FREEZING RAIN. THE GOODNEWS ABOUT THIS SYSTEM IS THAT TEMPS WILL WARM UP CONSIDERABLY ONSATURDAY. BUT ANOTHER DOWNER...WE MAY HAVE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODPROBLEMS TO DEAL WITH THEN. BUCKLE UP...ITS GOING TO BE A BUMPYRIDE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The RGEM came south at the last minute with this last storm. It also seemed to miss the ice threat...but I may be misremembering. I think most short range models(minus he NAM) over estimated surface warming to a large degree. The switch by the NAM and GFS is significant because this is when we saw the models shift drastically north last time around. This time the shift is south in apparent response to an approaching cold front and cold air that won't move easily. The RGEM is a valid solution as are the NAM/GFS solutions. I think a blend of the two would be wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Robert's latest update on FB: https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth/posts/1005101049519950:0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z Euro clown is 2-4 inches across TN for Friday/Saturday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 If the NAM is right, wow....I get 2.5 inches of sleet, 2 inches of snow, and .5 inches of freezing rain. I will have gone from never seeing more than 1 inch of sleet with any storm in my life to 2 in 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Have a family member that might be driving from Chicago to Bowling Green friday afternoon into later friday night. Thinking about telling them to stay home with how it looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Winter storm warnings are up for Middle TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 OHX upgraded their entire CWA to a winter storm warning. 1-2 inches of snow, 1/2 inch of ice. Says areas East of 65 will be hardest hit and will likely be changed to an Ice Storm Warning after the snow passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Have a family member that might be driving from Chicago to Bowling Green friday afternoon into later friday night. Thinking about telling them to stay home with how it looks now. I would have them wait for sure. Wx looks pretty bad out that way...pretty much the whole mixed bag and a lot of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 OHX upgraded their entire CWA to a winter storm warning. 1-2 inches of snow, 1/2 inch of ice. Says areas East of 65 will be hardest hit and will likely be changed to an Ice Storm Warning after the snow passes. ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ICE AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TIMING...NOON FRIDAY TO 9 AM SATURDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 WILL BE THE HARDEST HIT...WITH NEW ICE AMOUNTS UP TO ONE HALF INCH. THE EAST HALF OF MID TENNESSEE MAY LATER BE PLACED UNDER AN ICE STORM WARNING. * MAIN IMPACT...ICE AND SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. FREEZING RAIN WILL ADD TO ICE THAT IS ALREADY ON TREES AND OTHER SURFACES TO CAUSE DAMAGE. TREE LIMBS ARE LIKELY TO FALL...AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. * OTHER IMPACTS...MAJOR DISRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ADD TO THE THREAT FOR FALLING LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ON SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 18z NAM coming in a bit icier: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeneR4 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 206 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015 ...ICE AND SNOW WILL BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA FROM FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING... .A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT COLD AIR IN PLACE...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF SNOW. AS WARM AIR MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA...THE SNOW SHOULD TRANSITION TO A SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIXTURE BY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE MAY HAVE A LONGER DURATION OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. ICE AMOUNTS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FLORENCE TO CULLMAN ALABAMA. ICE AMOUNTS GREATER THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM HUNTSVILLE TO FORT PAYNE ALABAMA... EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. MADISON-JACKSON-DEKALB-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HUNTSVILLE...SCOTTSBORO...FORT PAYNE... LYNCHBURG...FAYETTEVILLE...WINCHESTER 206 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ICE AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM NOON CST FRIDAY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY. * IMPACTS...MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS FROM AROUND NOON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW OR SLEET...AND GREATER THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 18z NAM clown: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It would appear the 18z nonHIRES NAM has 1-1.25" of frozen qpf over TRI before temps reach freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 At this point the models are depicting a significant winter storm. How much ice is still on those trees in Knox? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I am going with faster NAM guidance on change over timing from HSV to Chatty, both snow to ice and ice to rain. Believe GFS, slower on both transitions, will work out from the Plateau into northeast Tenn. Knoxville is in my GFS zone. Nashvegas maybe a blend of all 3 including the Euro. Agreement seems better farther west into the Mid South and Memphis area. I may write more later. Hope everyone over achieves on snow and keeps power in ice. Cheers! EDIT: Bearman thanks for the report (next post). Good to know with more coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I would say that we have lost about 1/3 of the ice from the trees. Some less some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 hmm, so two nice runs of the nam now, and the 12z GFS backed it up. Seems like every big storm always has these last minute slight shifts that when you get 2-3 of them in a row means honing in. But I suppose we have a little battle between Euro vs Nam/GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN247 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RECORD SETTING COLD AIR IS IN PLACE OVER MID TN. THE CENTER OFTHE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHTAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS.WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...SPREADINGMOISTURE ACROSS THE COLD AIR IN PLACE. THIS COULD MEAN SOMEFLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO OUR WEST COUNTIES BYDAYBREAK. LITTLE OR NO ACCUM THROUGH DAYBREAK. ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THEAFTERNOON AS 850 MB WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE. THISWILL SPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MID STATE...WITHAMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. FRIDAY AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR IS LIKELY TOBE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TOWARDTHE MS VALLEY REGION. OUT AHEAD OF IT...850 MB WINDS WILLSTRENGTHEN TO 70KT...BRINGING A SURGE OR WARMER AIR. THE QUESTIONIS HOW QUICKLY THIS WARMING WILL OCCUR AT VARIOUS LEVELS IN THEATMOSPHERE. WE EXPECT THE SNOW TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SLEET ANDFREEZING RAIN FRIDAY EVENING...THEN OVER TO ALL LIQUID FROM WESTTO EAST. THE CHANGE TO ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND 10 PMALONG THE TN RIVER...AROUND 2 AM ALONG THE I 65 CORRIDOR...AND BY9 AM SATURDAY ALONG THE PLATEAU. SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE CRITICALTO THE AMOUNT OF ICE (FREEZING RAIN) WE RECEIVE. GENERALLY...WEEXPECT THE SURFACE WARMING TO BE SLOWER THAN ADVERTISED BY THEGUIDANCE...GOING MORE WITH THE NAM 2 METER TEMPS. EVEN WHEN TEMPSDO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING...THE ICE WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO STOPACCRUING AND START MELTING SINCE SURFACES ARE SO COLD GOING INTOTHIS EVENT. WE EXPECT ICE AMOUNTS TO BE GENERALLY ONE TENTH TO ONEQUARTER WEST HALF...AND UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN THE EAST HALF. THISSIGNIFICANT ICE WILL ADD TO ICE THAT IS ALREADY ON TREES...POWERLINES...BUILDINGS...ETC. TO CAUSE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES. WE MAYUPDATE SOME AREAS TO ICE STORM WARNING LATER ON. FORTUNATELY...THISEVENT WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF WITH ALL OF MID TN CHANGING OVER TORAIN BY 9 AM SATURDAY. A FEW THOUGHTS ABOUT CONFIDENCE...CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT ISHIGH...MEANING WE ARE HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT LIGHT SNOW WILLDEVELOP...THEN PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS IT TRANSITIONS TOSLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN. WE HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCEREGARDING THE EXACT AMOUNTS OF EACH TYPE THAT WILL OCCUR. IT ISPOSSIBLE THAT THE INITIAL MOISTURE MAY BE SLOWER COMING INTO THEVERY DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND THAT SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE LOWER THANINDICATED. ALSO...THE WARM AIR SURGE MAY BE SO STRONG THAT THE ICELASTS ONLY A SHORT TIME. THIS WOULD ALSO CUT EXPECTED TOTALS...BUTTHIS WOULD BE A GOOD THING. ON THE OTHER HAND...SFC TEMPS MAY STAYCOLD LONGER...MEANING MORE WIDESPREAD ICE PROBLEMS (MAJOR ICESTORM). THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS GREATEST OVER THE EAST HALF. THISFORECAST SITUATION IS DIFFERENT THAN MOST BECAUSE OF THE EXISTINGICE AND FRIGID AIR. OUR CURRENT CONDITIONS GOING INTO THIS EVENTHAVE PLAYED A BIG ROLE IN THE DECISION TO GO AHEAD WITH THEWARNING. EVEN IF WW MANAGE TO AVOID MAJOR ICE DAMAGE...TRAVEL ISHIGHLY LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE DANGEROUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AFTER THE WINTRY MESS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILLBE A CONCERN. WE ARE NOT GOING TO ADD ANOTHER HEADLINE AT THISTIME...BUT DEPENDING ON FUTURE QPF...WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED AFLOOD WATCH FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 1 TO 2 INCHES OFRAINFALL IS EXPECTED. 13 .EXTENDED DISCUSSION... ...COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK... ON SUNDAY ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID STATE WITHLIGHT SNOW AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. ONMONDAY A 1040 MBAR HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD DOWN THIS WAYFROM THE NORTHWEST WITH TEMPS NOT REACHING THE FREEZING MARK MOSTAREAS. A FEW FLURRIES COULD FLY ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TOMUCH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE INTHE 30S WITH YET ANOTHER ARCTIC SHOT OF COLD AIR DIVING DOWN THROUGHTHE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. .CLIMATE...RECORD LOW PREVIOUSLY SET BACK IN 1958 TIED THIS MORNINGWHEN THE TEMPERATURE FELL TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO. SO FAR TODAY`S HIGH HAS BEEN 19 DEGREES. THE RECORD FOR THE LOWESTDAILY HIGH IS 26 DEGREES SET IN 2006. BB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 MRX didn't change to a warning yet, I guess they'll hold off until tomorrow morning. Mainly because they are going with the Euro and not the NAM/GFS, thus bringing in precip later in the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The weather channel is honking the East Tennessee area as getting particularly severe winter weather from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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