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Freeze to Thaw, Winter Wx, Feb. 20th-21st, 2015


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Not sure of the temps for you folks from Chattanooga to the NE but we finally went over freezing at my house. Something I didn't expect just happened. When we hit 34* we  went from light rain to a heavy sleet for about 10 minutes. Seems like the cold and warm are having a battle up above.

 

Edit to add my weather station just dropped to 33^ again. Just something to look for your way if the cold keeps winning out for awhile.

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Yeah that was a pretty big bust on QPF by the models.  GFS came around and was the most correct yesterday.  RAP and HRRR didn't start coming around until 6 or 7 hours out.  I think we all knew the models would struggle with temps with the extreme cold in place but I'm surprised they dried out the precip like they did so close to the event.

 

The intense sleet last night here was cool to see.  I slept through some of the snow this morning.  I'm very happy to hear NE TN/SW VA got the big snow!  Great pics, keep em coming.

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Unbelievably, just 15 miles away, I got an inch that has already melted and temps in the mid 40s.

 

What a bummer about JC, they've been unfortunate the last two systems...it's odd that scott county and Kingsport did so well with both, but models kept hitting at cold areas hugging lee, scott, wise, hancock, and areas in that cluster. 

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What a front end thump, has to be the biggest busted wx forecast i'll prolly ever see again as technology continues to improve.  I was forecasted for .5-1 inch of snow with a little ice.  Got about 9 inches of snow on top of the prior 6-8...I hate it for the local mets, I think a lot of people are angry this morning at getting epic numbers when little was forecasted

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What a front end thump, has to be the biggest busted wx forecast i'll prolly ever see again as technology continues to improve.  I was forecasted for .5-1 inch of snow with a little ice.  Got about 9 inches of snow on top of the prior 6-8...I hate it for the local mets, I think a lot of people are angry this morning at getting epic numbers when little was forecasted

This was definitely an odd model bust. It showed Kentucky getting the heaviest snow on most of them and they got almost none, even northern Kentucky was zr. Some of the short range models had reduced qpf to nearly nothing until tonight and tomorrow, well after the warming. 

 

This one may be the oddest storm I can recall with the extreme snow/sleet/frozen event here with Kentucky getting less than areas to it's South. Plus a major winter storm here from at Lakes Cutter.

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I can't blame the mets much, this was not a temperature thing as much as it was a QPF error.  You can't forecast 1 foot totals off model input of .10-.35 ranges.  Had the moisture been showing up on prior model runs and mets were changing things based off temps (underestimating artic air locked in) then it would have been different...tough deal.  But I felt like totals should have been upped dramatically when moisture was pushing further west and they could have done a better job of extrapolating what was happening in knoxvile around 9-10 pm last night to the areas due northwest...Stove was beating the drum all last night by looking at the slow progression of the changover in Memphis.  You could really start to tell this was going to be big about 8 pm when ground temps were frozen tundra and everything was going to stick hard  core

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It's a disaster area here. Two local boat docks have collapsed and portions of them are sinking. Powerlines are sagging to the ground in spots.

What docks are they? I assume it's Norris? Spend a lot if time all over that lake during the summer.

Edit: Never mind. Just saw this: http://www.wbir.com/story/news/local/2015/02/21/norris-lake-boat-docks-collapse-after-winter-storm/23798393/

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I don't know how it managed to stay snow in the narrow corridor from Knoxville basically up I81 and yet turned to sleet and ZR in the plateau. I get the smokies and the foothills, but how it managed here, I just don't know. I would like to know though, if anyone can explain. At any rate, I finished around 12:00 with about 4.25in of snow. We really haven't had much other precip at all since it quit. Just a small sleet shower or ZR, and now, I guess rain, as I'm at 33 now. Basically, it snowed the hardest it could and quit precip during the day for is to enjoy it till just a few mins ago when we came in. I see it is now raining. It could all melt now, but we had a blast sledding, tubing, building snowmen, snowball fights, and playing. Best snow of the year here for sure!

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