BTRWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Is a mostly frozen scenario even a possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 still marveling how we got 7 to 1 ratios in a storm where it was 13 degrees and -10 at 850. DC is great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Is a mostly frozen scenario even a possibility? i think its likely now. I dont think we will see enough qpf after we flip to give us more wet than frozen at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 If I get 4", I'll be @ 18-19" on the year. That combined with the crazy cold Feb and overall cold Jan-Feb means this winter will rank in the top 50th percentile in many ways. I will never look back at it as a bad year. Although localized, saturday night will rank high up there with winter events in general. Things like that just don't happen often at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 i think its likely now. I dont think we will see enough qpf after we flip to give us more wet than frozen at this point Can someone else confirm this? eta: or Ji being Ji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 If I get 4", I'll be @ 18-19" on the year. That combined with the crazy cold Feb and overall cold Jan-Feb means this winter will rank in the top 50th percentile in many ways. I will never look back at it as a bad year. Although localized, saturday night will rank high up there with winter events in general. Things like that just don't happen often at all. Saturday night was epic. Give me a couple of those a year and I might forget about KUs. Last night was 5 minutes of Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'm just patiently waiting for the Euro to bury us. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This is going to be a hard one for LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Euro Problem is it is delayed which makes me nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 If I get 4", I'll be @ 18-19" on the year. That combined with the crazy cold Feb and overall cold Jan-Feb means this winter will rank in the top 50th percentile in many ways. I will never look back at it as a bad year. Although localized, saturday night will rank high up there with winter events in general. Things like that just don't happen often at all. And I dont think the winter is over after this one. There is going to be plenty of stuff to track. It doesnt mean any of it will hit us. But I would think we would get hit at least once more this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Euro Problem is it is delayed which makes me nervousIt's trended right in line with other guidance. Looks like snow by 1pm here.ETA: it was a significant shift compared to 0z. Good stuff either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It's trended right in line with other guidance. Looks like snow by 1pm here. ETA: it was a significant shift compared to 0z. Good stuff either way. yeah...looks like 2-4" for DC with more for Leesburg land...nice trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It's trended right in line with other guidance. Looks like snow by 1pm here. ETA: it was a significant shift compared to 0z. Good stuff either way. The problem I believe is when this gets really cranking... .5 degrees could make all the difference. That would be hard for models to pin point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 yeah...looks like 2-4" for DC with more for Leesburg land...nice trend 850 0c line down by Ric @ 0z Sunday. heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 yeah...looks like 2-4" for DC with more for Leesburg land...nice trend Good to see all the 12z models come into a somewhat similar solution for Sat afternoon... now the questions are how long can we hold on to the cold air, and how much snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Although other 12z guidance is tastier, it was a pretty big shift for the euro inside of 72 hours. Very good set of runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Aren't surprises the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Aren't surprises the best! Enjoy the euro jackpot until 0z moves it over rockville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Wish I could trust the Euro QPF. Verbatim its a 4-6" snow for me and the Winchester gang. But the EC was much too wet for the storm earlier in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Good to see all the 12z models come into a somewhat similar solution for Sat afternoon... now the questions are how long can we hold on to the cold air, and how much snow I always thought that cold air was "stronger" than warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Some of the GFS ensemble members are pretty tasty... is this about the time period where they are no longer useful? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 850 0c line down by Ric @ 0z Sunday. heh. What's the temp progression on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 6z gfs @ bwi 12z gfs @ bwi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 What's the temp progression on the Euro? for me and you 48 - upper teens 51 - 25 54 - 30 57 - 30 60 - mid 30s edit - at 850 we're below until around 64 hours though some barely above 0's creep into western VA at 925, we go above around hour 62 at 700mb well below freezing...no issue Precip moves in at hour 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Thanks-- did Bob Chill have a typo in his post about the 850 0C line being down at RIC at 0Z Sunday then? no, it is correct. We're -2 but jump to + fairly quicky between 0z-6z. Either way, the euro made big steps in the colder direction inside of 72 hours. There's room for improvements on all guidance if you want to be glass half full. I always am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 for me and you 48 - upper teens 51 - 25 54 - 30 57 - 30 60 - mid 30s edit - at 850 we're below until around 64 hours though some barely above 0's creep into western VA at 925, we go above around hour 62 at 700mb well below freezing...no issue Precip moves in at hour 54 Gotcha now, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Thanks-- did Bob Chill have a typo in his post about the 850 0C line being down at RIC at 0Z Sunday then? nope...there is a little nose that creeps into NW VA...but otherwise below 0 well well south of us until hour 63 when it gets close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Maybe the last storm is clouding my judgment, but have we seen precip arrive earlier than modeled this winter? I know every storm is different, but could be a consideration here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Gotcha now, thanks! not that we should be dissecting, but I think it is fairly reasonable based on this run that we are snow through hour 60, and about 0.25" falls as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 no, it is correct. We're -2 but jump to + fairly quicky between 0z-6z. Either way, the euro made big steps in the colder direction inside of 72 hours. There's room for improvements on all guidance if you want to be glass half full. I always am. Euro folds...all winter long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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