Kay Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I have yet to find a site the has OKV. But here is the cobb site with MRB already loaded. I use Woodstock and MRB and balance it from there. www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kmrb I look at Cobb KMTN but I wish KAPG was a site. Speaking of which, Mitch you posted some decently legible (not always the case) NAM text output, last night I think, do you or someone have similar text links for GFS and/or Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z GGEM at 48 has snow knocking at the door and its snowing lightly at 54... decent snow at 60 over to rain probably at 63 Looks like 4" or so.. maybe 5", but that is pushing it timing and amount of frozen are like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z UKIE QPF map at 60... looks like DCA is ~10mm... maybe a few more? Will have meteogram in a few to see if this all snow before 60... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z UKIE DCA meteogram -- http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=ukmet&run=12&var=std〈=en&map=us Too close to call... looks like the 10mm would be snow (barring any warm layers) and the next 5mm would be sleet/rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Nice trends, seems opposite of everything in January that trended worse in the 12-96hr period. Models are jumpy so it could trend back north. Lows Saturday Morning and Cloud Cover will be important. Another nowcasting situation easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Zwyts or someone else can double check, but it appears so far that all the 12z runs suggest a 2-4/3-5 thump before changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Zwyts or someone else can double check, but it appears so far that all the 12z runs suggest s 2-4/3-5 thump before changeoverPretty much. Ukie last night was the same as today for the most part. Very consistent. We're at a pretty short range to suddenly go back to amp. Seems quite unlikely. A wildcard is surface temps. The is nothing to reinforce the cold at the surface but how long can sub freezing hold? Ground is snow covered and froze solid. Will be interesting to see how long the surface can hold sub freezing and where. Midlevels are a different story of course. Seems like models are locking in on the progression there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/ find the station near you on the map Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I look at Cobb KMTN but I wish KAPG was a site. Speaking of which, Mitch you posted some decently legible (not always the case) NAM text output, last night I think, do you or someone have similar text links for GFS and/or Euro?out of the office so I can't get it now, sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Prob a tad too close to use ensembles, but GEFS looks decent... 54 is fine, 60 has the 850 0c 850 line at the M/D line or just south of there... so prob a few members have a good thump for us before the changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Watch this turn into our biggest event of the winter thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Watch this turn into our biggest event of the winter thus far. That would not be surprising at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Watch this turn into our biggest event of the winter thus far. ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Watch this turn into our biggest event of the winter thus far. It would only be fitting considering the severity of this cold. A rainy solution would be shameful after reaching zero 24 hours before an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 ok You think that would be hard to do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 You think that would be hard to do? No but I think BethesdaBoy is a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 You think that would be hard to do? 15-20:1 ratios will take care of the details of that question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 15-20:1 ratios will take care of the details of that question. My biggest event of the season is 4.75 (I think, can't remember). You don't have to envision The Day After Tomorrow to top that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 4" would be the biggest storm for a lot of folks. At this point it looks pretty good for 3-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 My goal here is to get 3-4 inches and keep that second batch of stuff to our south so we can peacefully end with freezing drizzle and don't wash away too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Mine is near 5" but that was pure luck along with some others just south of me in AA county. Local jackpot the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 No but I think BethesdaBoy is a weenie. sun angle will be murder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 My biggest event of the season is 4.75 (I think, can't remember). You don't have to envision The Day After Tomorrow to top that. Mine's 3.5"! Anyway, I am hoping this ends up fast and weak -- maybe we can get a little something and dryslot or just drizzle and keep Sunday in the 30s. Anything but 50 and mod rain. That would be miserable. It would be real nice if the start time is earlier on Sat morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Eh. Probably be on the low end with this set up. Got a hankering for a good 'ole fashioned ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 sun angle will be murder ha. i have only glanced here and there so far. not shocking to see it end up flatter than expected. the sfc pattern is pretty sucky but this air is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 My biggest event is 3.5" and that took 15:1 (or better) ratio to even get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 One potential positive here....daytime snow > nighttime snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 No but I think BethesdaBoy is a weenie. Definitely, but he tries to be an objective weenie. That post was kind of half sarcastic, just fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 My biggest is just 3" Lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 15-20:1 ratios will take care of the details of that question. Cobb output was showing like 7:1 ratios. I guess that makes sense with warm air coming in aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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