HighStakes Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 <leesburg>these events always start earlier than initially modeled</leesburg> A lot of the times yes it does. Moisture attacks what in this case is extreme cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 RGEM at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It's silly to parse, but I'm not sure I would describe +0.1/+0.2 as a warm layer 0.6 at 900mb But yeah... nice turn of events for us so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 So, uh, who is gonna predict the rates with this one ? 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 amped solutions have mostly failed this year That's because of the NAO/AO combo. In this pattern anything coming at us from the west we are better off being a weak wave. Now the storm later next week coming up from the eastern Gulf...that one we can hope amps up because its starting off far enough east that cutting is not as much a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 We're a snow town - welcome to the new Mid Atlantic winter that begins in mid-February every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GFS 18/0z run forecast for 18z on Saturday had the low as a 998 over Amarillo. Today's 19/12z run has it as a 1010mb near Texarkana. High off the coast is also farther north and east. Been a huge deamplification trend within 72 hours for almost every storm this year (that's not hitting Boston). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'm liking these trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Cobb for 12z NAM Westminster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GFS 18/0z run forecast for 18z on Saturday had the low as a 998 over Amarillo. Today's 19/12z run has it as a 1010mb near Texarkana. High off the coast is also farther north and east. Been a huge deamplification trend within 72 hours for almost every storm this year (that's not hitting Boston). To me, that is the ticket for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Cobb for 12z NAM Westminster Can you help me learn to find that for Winchester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Not that it matters much at this range, but there is that GD Shen. Valley dry slot again on the GFS map. WTF? This is basically an overunning with SW flow, that means your winds are downsloping off the 4,000 ft mountains over WV to your southwest. In this case it makes perfect sense to see a rainshadow or "snowshadow" effect. I had the same happen when I was at Penn State anytime the winds were out of the SW off the Allegheny mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Can you help me learn to find that for Winchester? http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/ find the station near you on the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 You probably want to go to with MRB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Cobb for 12z NAM Westminster 6:1 snow w/ temps in the teens? Goodness, that makes Monday's ratio debacle look like dendrite heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Cobb for NAM had +/- 3" for both DCA and BWI followed up with a tenth or so of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The mass of heavier rain after the changeover on the GFS has slid south since yesterday-- DC's now on the edge of it. It's south of us on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 . Notice the MoCo/HoCo bullseye? I said a few days ago that we are the new Mason Dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 WTF Storm FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 6:1 snow w/ temps in the teens? Goodness, that makes Monday's ratio debacle look like dendrite heaven. i dont ever pay attention to the ratios listed there. just the qpf and temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 6:1 snow w/ temps in the teens? Goodness, that makes Monday's ratio debacle look like dendrite heaven. ratios are overrated. Trust me! Up here all my snows have been high ratio fluff...then the next day half of it sublimates when the sun hits it no matter how cold, then the other half blows away into the woods or sides of buildings. Denser snow holds better afterwards. I would take 4" of low ratio snow over 6" of fluff every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Not that it matters much at this range, but there is that GD Shen. Valley dry slot again on the GFS map. WTF? Thats a good thing. We dry slot before to much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Based on the GFS trends (supported by the 12Z NAM)...It wouldn't surprise me to see this as a mainly snow event (2-4/3-5" accums). We've seen these types before coming out of an arctic surge. Initial WAA pcpn is predominantly snow...maybe not the best dendritic profile aloft but still 10-1/9-1 snow...then the pcpn shuts off as light sleet/fzra or even drizzle as the layers aloft continue to warm (while surface temps stay close to freezing with the fresh snow, lack of strong southerly/warm surge, and thus some lingering in-situ CAD wedging). If we want all snow or predominantly snow, we definitely want these sheared trends in the models when we can cash in with the first batch of precipitating WAA/isentropic ascent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 i dont ever pay attention to the ratios listed there. just the qpf and temps And you shouldn't. The automated ratio calculations for Cobb have always been whack. Think I remember it showing 30 or 40:1 back in one of the Feb 2010 blizzards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This is basically an overunning with SW flow, that means your winds are downsloping off the 4,000 ft mountains over WV to your southwest. In this case it makes perfect sense to see a rainshadow or "snowshadow" effect. I had the same happen when I was at Penn State anytime the winds were out of the SW off the Allegheny mtns. Makes sense, though still frustrating as every event this year here has seemingly been significantly drier than the region. It probably usually is though. I realize the BR mountains to the east aren't as high, but why is there no similar rain shadow effect to the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z GGEM at 48 has snow knocking at the door and its snowing lightly at 54... decent snow at 60 over to rain probably at 63 Looks like 4" or so.. maybe 5", but that is pushing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Makes sense, though still frustrating as every event this year here has seemingly been significantly drier than the region. It probably usually is though. I realize the BR mountains to the east aren't as high, but why is there no similar rain shadow effect to the east? There is, just not as pronounced, but when there are clippers a lot of times the precip redevelops east of the blue ridge, and gets heavier as you move east from the blue ridge...sometimes DC will get more qpf then IAD because of the shadow effect in those cases. But as you said those mountains are not as high so its less of an effect. This year sucks because of lot of our events have been weak waves from the west and thus you get the shadow effect. You really need a system that is amping up to our southeast where you have northeast flow. Due to the NAO we have not had many of those as systems that do amp in this pattern are going to want to cut. We would need perfect timing of something to dig down and phase at just the perfect spot over the southeast to get that to work out for us. (next week maybe) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 from the precip panels the GGEM looks like a nice front end thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Can you help me learn to find that for Winchester? I have yet to find a site the has OKV. But here is the cobb site with MRB already loaded. I use Woodstock and MRB and balance it from there. www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kmrb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 There is, just not as pronounced, but when there are clippers a lot of times the precip redevelops east of the blue ridge, and gets heavier as you move east from the blue ridge...sometimes DC will get more qpf then IAD because of the shadow effect in those cases. But as you said those mountains are not as high so its less of an effect. This year sucks because of lot of our events have been weak waves from the west and thus you get the shadow effect. You really need a system that is amping up to our southeast where you have northeast flow. Due to the NAO we have not had many of those as systems that do amp in this pattern are going to want to cut. We would need perfect timing of something to dig down and phase at just the perfect spot over the southeast to get that to work out for us. (next week maybe) Interesting and educational. Appreciate the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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