Ji Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 Not only did nam cave like the Washington wizards..it became snowiest solution. We never lose 850s lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I'm on the phone. Hard to see. Looks meh. Drier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Not only did nam cave like the Washington wizards..it became snowiest solution. We never lose 850s lol Snowiest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 Snowiest? 850s don't seem to make it past zero unless I'm reading maps wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Not only did nam cave like the Washington wizards..it became snowiest solution. We never lose 850s lol lol...925 temps are like +40..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 lol...925 temps are like +40.....I didon't check all the levels but it seemed to keep 850 near zero for entire storm and did trend south with qpf max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 4knam really keeps a solid low/mid level wedge west of I-95... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 NAM sure is odd, advances 925mb-surface line N ahead of 850mb despite the fact that the jetmax weakens significantly below 875mb.. Hi-Res NAM looks closer to reality, in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 24 hr precip 06z Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I didon't check all the levels but it seemed to keep 850 near zero for entire storm and did trend south with qpf max you could conceivably stay snow on the NAMS until 9pm or so...in which case you'd do really well.... ETA - looking at NAM soundings, you are probably mixing at 8pm unless you are ripping your way through the column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 24 hr precip 00z Nam.That's the 06z NAM. More precip to the south than the 00z, but not drastically different for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 That's the 06z NAM. More precip to the south than the 00z, but not drastically different for most. Lol. Almost 4am. Yeah. 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 DC is probably mixing at 6pm on the NAM...would be good enough for 2-3"....hopefully 2" is a worst case scenario... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 That's the 06z NAM. More precip to the south than the 00z, but not drastically different for most. I like saw one panel of the 00z. Precip field looks south/ expanded a bit. Crazy to do this on a phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 Meanwhile I'll stare at the ggem bomb for next weekend before I drift back asleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 DC is probably mixing at 6pm on the NAM...would be good enough for 2-3"....hopefully 2" is a worst case scenario... That's the regular nam, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Meanwhile I'll stare at the ggem bomb for next weekend before I drift back asleep I've heard that the GGEM is a good model for bombs at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 6z nam looks a lot colder... 850s don't make it past moco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Winter storm warnings expanded, now including both Loudon & Montgomery..I'm surprised Fairfax wasn't included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 Sone idiot on cwg gave today a 2 out of 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Leesburg, CONGRATULATIONS on your Winter Storm Warning! You are now one of the big winners with 9-10 inches of snow, Right up there with Maryland!!! Pack em, Stack em and Rack em! Line starts at the Mississippi and you better take a number! ENJOY! Probably 30 degrees on Sunday too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 06z RGEM is 17 mm of snow at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 06z GFS is basically the same as 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 OUCH - I just saw the Washington Post. they have the high temperature for Sunday set at 48 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 https://www.facebook.com/HeadfulOfSnow FINAL CALL for DC proper. 10am - Noon: Light snow starts during this window. Could become steadier by Noon. Temps in the low to mid 20s. Noon to 6pm: Snow, moderate to heavy at times. Sleet may mix in, especially toward the end of this window. Temps rise from the mid 20s to around freezing. 6pm - 10pm: Snow mixes with and changes over to sleet. Sleet then mixes with and changes over to freezing rain/rain. Temps in the low 30s. 10pm - 6am: Freezing rain/rain becomes all rain. Temps rise into the mid 30s. (Rain could potentially freeze on contact for a time at 33 or even 34) Total snow/sleet accumulation: 3-6" Oh I didn't know you were that guy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 4knam really keeps a solid low/mid level wedge west of I-95...Very encouraging. It seems that the mix even in DC will be more to sleet and drizzle and less so for freezing rain/rain.Really cold this AM with widespread temps near 0F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Looking at satellite, the arrival of the cloud deck couldn't be timed better..should come in thick right around sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Last 3 NAM runs for jyo for snow 0z 5.4" 6z 4.1" 12z 3.7" 18z 2.8"0z 2.8" 6z 4.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 HRRR thickness charts show mixing moving into DC after 22Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Winter storm warnings expanded, now including both Loudon & Montgomery..I'm surprised Fairfax wasn't included. Howard County also -- actually, not a big surprise (to me) in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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