Expat Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 RAP and HRRR both looking good right now! Both show snow entering DC metro around 11am! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 oh yeah...precip starts in DC at 15z on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I love that map because the reporting sites to my SW and NE are always an inch more than me (BWI) in every storm even though I am halfway between them lol It's a good bit better than 12z.. I honestly didn't look super close otherwise.. I think I lean wintry at this pt either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 We torch to 50 Sunday on the Euro. Enjoy the snow to the full later today. ouch. well thats life in the tropical mid atlantic I guess. there's a reason so many are flocking to eastern Prince William, remarkably mild weather. west Loudoun will never develop for 100 years. Too damn cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Enjoy the snow to the full later today. ouch. well thats life in the tropical mid atlantic I guess. there's a reason so many are flocking to eastern Prince William, remarkably mild weather. west Loudoun will never develop for 100 years. Too damn cold. Hope you guys get pounded tomorrow, looks like many will exceed your annual avg snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I dunno if we will really torch on Sunday with snowpack and NW winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdevil02 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 For DC, these are rough estimates, using 10:1 ratios...I could see the case for higher (cold/fatties) and lower (sleet mixing in). Flip doesn't mean to rain. Could be to sleet. This is model interpretation. Not my personal forecast. For purposes of this analysis I didn't make any assumptions about heavy snow overcoming the column. The flip times are estimates of when I think the column is no longer at or below 0. 0z NAM - flip time - 6pm, Snow - 3" 0z GFS - flip time - 6:30 pm, Snow - 5.5" 0z GGEM - flip time - 9pm - Snow - 6.5" 0z UKMET - flip time - 7pm - Snow - 3.5" 0z 4kNAM - flip time - 6pm - Snow - 2" 0z RGEM - flip time - 7pm - Snow - 5.5" 0z Euro - flip time - 7pm - Snow - 5" These are the posts that I lurk here for. Thanks for this, great info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Enjoy the snow to the full later today. ouch. well thats life in the tropical mid atlantic I guess. there's a reason so many are flocking to eastern Prince William, remarkably mild weather. west Loudoun will never develop for 100 years. Too damn cold. Haha, I wish I lived in Western Loudoun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Hope you guys get pounded tomorrow, looks like many will exceed your annual avg snow totals. Thanks, I hope you get destroyed by this storm with heavy snow also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I dunno if we will really torch on Sunday with snowpack and NW winds Not sure either but we could clear out early on Sunday and have a good deal of sunshine by the afternoon. GFS is 8-10 colder during the day on Sunday. I would probably split the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Haha, I wish I lived in Western Loudoun. Western Loudoun/east Jefferson is heaven in the mid atlantic second only to Western Maryland. They got a whole new climatic zone! Meteorologists have to desperately scramble every winter just to keep up! They got massive altitude. I have seen those guys get 8 inches of snow and frigid while I have brown grass and 40 with wall to wall sunshine. I wish I could spend a winter there, I'd show those folks how to clear snow with a shovel lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I dunno if we will really torch on Sunday with snowpack and NW winds That's was my thinking as well. If we torch. I don't think it will last long. We could get one of those weird warm-up^ for a short time. Then the good ole NW winds bring back that crisp, clean, cold NW wind back in. The remaining snowpack should freeze up like concrete. It least that's what I'm hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Not sure either but we could clear out early on Sunday and have a good deal of sunshine by the afternoon. GFS is 8-10 colder during the day on Sunday. I would probably split the difference. Temps get to 40-45 for 4-6 hours and then back down again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OleFalls Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I just want to give a shout to all of you and say "Thank You All So Much!." I have learned so much lurking and following your posts over the last few years. You are an amazing group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 WOW would you look at THOSE orange/red returns!!!!! http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full.php Probably just IP and ZR, but imagine if that was pure snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 WOW would you look at THOSE orange/red returns!!!!! http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full.php Probably just IP and ZR, but imagine if that was pure snow! FWIW that is headed our way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 High res RGEM continues to be the voice of reason. According to that map, if I am interpreting this correctly, an inch and a half of water in Maryland. I hope from the very bottom of my white snow-streaked soul, that it is ALL SNOW for Maryland. They definitely deserve every last dendrite after last Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 03z SREFs through 00z (7pm) tonight give DC a lil over 0.5" QPF. I used 00z as the cutoff because thats when we lose the 850s even though we still have another few hours to go before the 2mT goes above 32 degrees at DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 According to that map, if I am interpreting this correctly, an inch and a half of water in Maryland. I hope from the very bottom of my white snow-streaked soul, that it is ALL SNOW for Maryland. They definitely deserve every last dendrite after last Monday 00z Run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 https://www.facebook.com/HeadfulOfSnow FINAL CALL for DC proper. 10am - Noon: Light snow starts during this window. Could become steadier by Noon. Temps in the low to mid 20s. Noon to 6pm: Snow, moderate to heavy at times. Sleet may mix in, especially toward the end of this window. Temps rise from the mid 20s to around freezing. 6pm - 10pm: Snow mixes with and changes over to sleet. Sleet then mixes with and changes over to freezing rain/rain. Temps in the low 30s. 10pm - 6am: Freezing rain/rain becomes all rain. Temps rise into the mid 30s. (Rain could potentially freeze on contact for a time at 33 or even 34) Total snow/sleet accumulation: 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Good forecast there Zwyts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 00z Run: I think a foot for parts of Maryland is reasonable. However, I'll take that 10 over my house, chop it in half, and expect about 4 (maybe). 4 is climo in one storm here. I'd say 2 to 4 here, but Maryland could pick up a foot, their climo is quite different, especially more north and more west. I hope they get it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 https://www.facebook.com/HeadfulOfSnow FINAL CALL for DC proper. 10am - Noon: Light snow starts during this window. Could become steadier by Noon. Temps in the low to mid 20s. Noon to 6pm: Snow, moderate to heavy at times. Sleet may mix in, especially toward the end of this window. Temps rise from the mid 20s to around freezing. 6pm - 10pm: Snow mixes with and changes over to sleet. Sleet then mixes with and changes over to freezing rain/rain. Temps in the low 30s. 10pm - 6am: Freezing rain/rain becomes all rain. Temps rise into the mid 30s. (Rain could potentially freeze on contact for a time at 33 or even 34) Total snow/sleet accumulation: 3-6" Your outlook looks good to me. Quite a turnaround from a few days ago when it appeared that a wall-to-wall rain event was on tap. Thanks for the Euro updates (especially the favorable 1 AM updates). Enjoy the snow!MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 00z Run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 It's the Hi-Res RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 06z Nam looks nice at hour 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Matt, thanks for euro discussion. Hugely appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Yoda, did aliens snatch you? Worried for the eight minutes of silence... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 06z Nam looks nice at hour 15 I haven't really analyzed it...I think it is drier for many, but for me and you there is more of a push southeast with the thump.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Yoda, did aliens snatch you? Worried for the eight minutes of silence...Hopefully, he fainted from how great the NAM looks and he will be along shortly to report. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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