AvantHiatus Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 but 925 is and 900 is probably even warmer Sleetville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Hey Jeb, nice of you to give him a detailed explanation. I recall a similar one you gave a number of years ago when I was also trying to figure out wth a Jebwalk is... Just curious, what do you listen to? Perhaps something like, "Trampled Under Foot", or "DireMaker" or "Dazed and Confused" (all by Zeppelin), or maybe "Stranglehold" by Nugent? Hope you cash in on this one so you can add a new song to your playback list. Come on. The Jeb listens to noting but the flakes bouncing off of ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 but 925 is and 900 is probably even warmer sv snow maps are pretty stingy.. still waiting for it to roll further on wxbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Wow, you got back on that pony pretty quickly. Thanks! Flip to FRZ or RN? at 0z 32 degree line runs right through DC, but it is pretty flat so almost everyone is below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 sv snow maps are pretty stingy.. still waiting for it to roll further on wxbell yes...I do have those other maps that usually match wxbell and they have 0.5" tickling me and you....I'm not too worried about SV snow maps...I don't think they have a sophisticated algorithm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Sleetville? 900-925 probably caves 1st so yeah...there would be a period of sleet, but not sure it is long before above zero layer is thick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 yes...I do have those other maps that usually match wxbell and they have 0.5" tickling me and you....I'm not too worried about SV snow maps...I don't think they have a sophisticated algorithm of course wxbell hi res is missing the 24 hour panels so far heh. snowmap looks passable.. 6ish for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 850 map at 0Z Sunday http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h24&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Matt, much rain after the flip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 since ppl will ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Brings the precip in earlier this run. Surface temps are also a few degrees colder during the day tomorrow compared to 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 925 temps at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Hey Jeb, nice of you to give him a detailed explanation. I recall a similar one you gave a number of years ago when I was also trying to figure out wth a Jebwalk is... Just curious, what do you listen to? Perhaps something like, "Trampled Under Foot", or "DireMaker" or "Dazed and Confused" (all by Zeppelin), or maybe "Stranglehold" by Nugent? Hope you cash in on this one so you can add a new song to your playback list. zeppelin and nugent are cool in snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 zeppelin and nugent are cool in snowstorms Rush!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Matt, much rain after the flip? about 0.4? falls for me and you after 0z... ETA - I don't think we flip to rain at 7pm...looks like it would be sleet at least for a little while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Hey Jeb, nice of you to give him a detailed explanation. I recall a similar one you gave a number of years ago when I was also trying to figure out wth a Jebwalk is... Just curious, what do you listen to? Perhaps something like, "Trampled Under Foot", or "DireMaker" or "Dazed and Confused" (all by Zeppelin), or maybe "Stranglehold" by Nugent? Hope you cash in on this one so you can add a new song to your playback list. Roads to Moscow from Al Stewart.... life changer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 about 0.4? falls for me and you after 0z... not bad since some of that will be sleet/zr thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I think we're done. 3-6" cities and close burbs. Someone gets 8+. 10am-7pm should be spent watching and walking. Best storm of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I know that many have said that what LWX puts out does not really matter, but with the new Euro, perhaps LWX will expand the warnings east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Warnings surely coming from lwx for at least the counties along and NW of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 since ppl will ask I love that map because the reporting sites to my SW and NE are always an inch more than me (BWI) in every storm even though I am halfway between them lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 FWIW, both the 5km ARW and 5km NMM get snow into DC by 11am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Wishbone Ash Argus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Total Precipitation at 3z tomorrow. Note the major shift south.12z Euro 0z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 it really is a nice trajectory not surprised with the Euro and the rest of the 0Z suite (except the NAM, of course) http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Euro has gotten consistently colder for Monday joining the GFS. Some areas flirt with zero Tues. morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Euro has gotten consistently colder for Monday joining the GFS. Some areas flirt with zero Tues. morning. In other words, Another "snow day" for schools Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 In other words, Another "snow day" for schools We torch to 50 Sunday on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 We torch to 50 Monday on the Euro. Then perhaps Tues. if temps are flirting with zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 For DC, these are rough estimates, using 10:1 ratios...I could see the case for higher (cold/fatties) and lower (sleet mixing in). Flip doesn't mean to rain. Could be to sleet. This is model interpretation. Not my personal forecast. For purposes of this analysis I didn't make any assumptions about heavy snow overcoming the column. The flip times are estimates of when I think the column is no longer at or below 0. 0z NAM - flip time - 6pm, Snow - 3" 0z GFS - flip time - 6:30 pm, Snow - 5.5" 0z GGEM - flip time - 9pm - Snow - 6.5" 0z UKMET - flip time - 7pm - Snow - 3.5" 0z 4kNAM - flip time - 6pm - Snow - 2" 0z RGEM - flip time - 7pm - Snow - 5.5" 0z Euro - flip time - 7pm - Snow - 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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