snowfan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GFS is similar to the NAM wrt the front end snow before any mixing occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GFS looks interesting. Front end thump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I just looked at the NAM... That's like 3-5" on the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Gfs looks like a good trend and h5 is decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Gfs looks like a good trend and h5 is decent. It's not on WxBell yet. Does it look similar to 06z regarding qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GFS gets surface temps above freezing after h60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 best part, ratios should be superb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This is going to be a snowstorm if this trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 best part, ratios should be superb Yeah, I'm sure everyone would be real confident about that after the debacle on Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 GFS gets surface temps above freezing after h60. thats the common theme. Even Nam does that i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Is this thread supposed to be serious? I think that would be a yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Anyone currently looking at the models, what is the approx start time for the precip? Wife is supposed to head to Blacksburg on Sat. morning, trying to advise her if she should cancel her trip or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 BWI gets .35" as of Sat &PM and DCA .43", but it looks like DCA is probably zr and/or sleet (cue Leesburg) surface temps at 7PM are -1C and DCA and -2C at BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Like the trend. I think Mitch's ratio post is a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This is going to be a snowstorm if this trend continues. Very cold at the surface during the day Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GFS looks to get 0.4 into DC by hour 60.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Anyone currently looking at the models, what is the approx start time for the precip? Wife is supposed to head to Blacksburg on Sat. morning, trying to advise her if she should cancel her trip or not. CANCEL!!!! this is Roanoke SAT 12Z -8.1 -0.9 1029 97 99 0.04 SAT 18Z -3.6 -3.2 1028 98 100 0.43 SUN 00Z -0.2 2.9 1024 100 99 0.63 SUN 06Z 0.6 4.0 1020 100 99 0.72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Like the trend. I think Mitch's ratio post is a joke. a winner every time!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 CANCEL!!!! this is Roanoke SAT 12Z -8.1 -0.9 1029 97 99 0.04 558 535 SAT 18Z -3.6 -3.2 1028 98 100 0.43 562 540 SUN 00Z -0.2 2.9 1024 100 99 0.63 564 545 SUN 06Z 0.6 4.0 1020 100 99 0.72 564 548 I'll advise her. lol. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'll advise her. lol. Thank you. welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 looking at soundings, DCA is probably snow at hour 60.....so around 4" of snow...then 63 is pretty clearly 33 and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Really brings in the precip early. This is only 48 away from starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 maybe the best way to look at the rest of this winter is the Ct Bliz way and just assume it will always snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 NAM is .35 all snow in the northern Shen Valley. .28 all snow at MRB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 looking at soundings, DCA is probably snow at hour 60.....so around 4" of snow...then 63 is pretty clearly 33 and rain Barely... I would think more sleet than snow though with that warm layer at 900 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Barely... I would think more sleet than snow though with that warm layer at 900 It's silly to parse, but I'm not sure I would describe +0.1/+0.2 as a warm layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infekshus Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Really brings in the precip early. This is only 48 away from starting. <leesburg>these events always start earlier than initially modeled</leesburg> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 . Not that it matters much at this range, but there is that GD Shen. Valley dry slot again on the GFS map. WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looks like .3-.5" as frozen for N. VA through MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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